Former Chinese central bank consultant Li Daokui said that the Chinese real estate market may take up to one year to recover.He also suggested that the Chinese government takes more measures to encourage lending to developers to prevent the spread of breach of contract.
According to the Bloomberg News Agency on Tuesday (September 26), Li Daokui, a member of the former People's Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee, said in an interview that in the next four to six months, sales of China's largest cities may return to growth growth, But in smaller cities, "it takes six months to one year to achieve a good recovery."
Li Daokui also suggested that the government establishes a mechanism to increase bank loans to real estate developers to reduce the risk of financial infection.He estimates that developers need about RMB 100 billion (approximately S $ 18.7 billion) to eliminate the current downturn.
Li Daokui also said that some developers have too much assets in third- and fourth -tier cities, so their financial conditions will not be improved in the next six months.At the same time, in order to prevent the spread of liquidity, commercial banks are still extremely important to increase loans.Some policies must be introduced to prevent bank loans from shrinking.
A possible mechanism is that the State Financial Supervision Administration established by the Bank of China or China this year and the six major commercial banks in China formed a committee to agree to jointly issue loans.
Li Daokui said: "When the sales recovery, the loan of commercial banks will be recovered. We are talking about liquidity support. I don't say that all developers should survive.Stopping the panic of the financial market and stopping the default caused by slow sales. "
Li Daokui pointed out that in the long run, China's real estate sales may be stable at 11 to 1.2 billion square meters per year, andThe peak in 2021 was about 1.8 billion square meters.
He said that the People's Bank of China may cut interest rates again before the end of the year, but he expects not to "multiple or significantly cut interest rates", partly because the bank's profit margin is relatively low.
Li Daokui predicts that a more detailed plan to solve local government debt will soon be announced.He said that these policies are combined with measures to support the real estate industry to "much more important than cutting interest rates."
Reported that housing sales are the main sources of income from Chinese real estate developers. The collapse of the market in the past two years has caused the real estate giants such as Country Garden and other real estate giants to default, leading to the failure of housing projects and triggering market panic.The bank's loan on the real estate industry has also dropped sharply.
According to the calculation of data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, after a short period of time after a brief return of China's real estate development loan earlier this year, it has declined monthly since April, and it has decreased by 25%year -on -year in August.
