In the first half of this year, the 12 provinces and cities in western China increased by as much as half lower than the national level, which has intensified the growth rate of only two provinces in the first March of this year.Among them, Guangxi, which increased by 4.9 % in the first quarter of this year and higher than 0.4 percentage points across the country. The growth rate in the first half of the year slowed to 2.8 %. The growth rate ranked second in the country, which was significantly behind the country's 2.7 percentage points.
The analysis of the scholars of the interviewed, the growth performance in the second quarter of this year shows that the economic toughness of the provinces in western China is insufficient, and the industrial chain is more exposed at low -end, industry category and leading enterprises.At the same time, there are no debt in various places that they dare not take advantage of the growth of debt investment. Geopolical friction and global economic recovery are unstable and generally drag out the performance of foreign trade in the western region.
The economic data of 31 provinces and cities in China on Sunday (July 30) in the first half of the year (July 30), of which the growth rate of 14 provinces is lower than the national level, and nearly half comesSix provinces and cities in Xinjiang.
In 31 provinces and cities, 10 provinces and cities increased below the first half of this year. Nearly half of the western regions, including Ningxia, Chongqing, Shaanxi, and Guangxi Province.Among them, the growth rate of Guangxi and Shaanxi in the first half of the year decreased the most, and decreased by 2.1 percentage points and 1.6 percentage points, respectively.
Three -year epidemic affects the process of moving westward to the west of the Eastern Industry
Yao Shujie, a professor of economics at Chongqing University, analyzed in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that in the western provinces and cities with a low base, the growth rate led the whole country during the seven or eight years before the outbreak of the crown disease.However, in the past three years, the epidemic situation has affected the process of moving westward in the east industry to a certain extent. The provinces in the west are currently entering the stage of economic slowdown.
Yao Shujie pointed out that in the first half of this year, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Shandong were strong, showing that the coastal leaders were driving the Chinese industry into a new stage in the post -epidemic era, and the distance between the inland areas with weak growth and insufficient industrial development was opened.Essence
Qiu Dongyang, dean of the School of Economics and Finance of Chongqing University of Technology, also believed that the economic performance of the first half of this year in western China reflects the lack of economic toughness in the region.The comprehensive strength is inferior to the coastal areas, so "it is more difficult to recover."
Qiu Dongyang pointed out that geopolitical frictions continue and global economic downturn have also led to low foreign trade in western provinces.He said that although debt investment is even more immediate, the debt in the western region is currently heavy and financial tensions. Local governments also need to prevent systemic risks, so it is difficult to increase investment -driven growth.
Chongqing's GDP increased by 4.7%in the first quarter of this year, higher than 0.2 percentage points nationwide, but only increased by 4.6%in the first half of the year. Compared with the first quarter, it slowed down by 0.1 percentage points, and it was significantly lower than 0.9 percentage points nationwide.
The Chongqing Daily published the interpretation of the economic situation in the first half of the year on July 27th.According to analysis, the economic operation of Shancheng achieved a good start in the first March of this year, but in April, it was deeply adjusted; the growth rate of Chongqing GDP in the first half of the year was lower than that of the country's reflection of "the foundation of economic recovery is still unstable, and the economic structure adjustment bears greater pressure."
Notebook computers and cars are the main products of Chongqing Industry.In March of this year, Chongqing produced 806,700 micro -computer equipment and 193,900 vehicles; but in April, the output dropped to 5.2019 million micro -computer equipment and 158,900 vehicles.
The Chongqing Municipal Development and Reform Commission evaluates that the uncertainty of external demand is a dragging on Chongqing's economic development; the automotive industry has entered a period of accelerated change, and the effect of traditional electronic product consumption ceiling has gradually emerged.
Yao Shujie analyzes that Chongqing has rely on the automotive and laptop industry for many years. In recent years, it has vigorously developed strategic emerging industries such as new energy, intelligent networking computers, and new materials, promoting scientific and technological innovation to create a diversified risk of mid -to -high -end industries, and file files, and file files.Upgrading the economy, but the transformation climbing speed is slow and it is difficult to achieve overnight.
Yao Shujie believes that the west must create more highly competitive industries and fist products in order to better promote sustainable development.
When the Chinese official was inspected in Sichuan on July 27, it was required to adhere to the "one game of Sichuan and Chongqing", strengthen the coordinated development of the Chengdu -Chongqing region, build a strategic highland to the west and participate in the new international competition base.Important growth pole and new power source.
Yao Shujie pointed out that Sichuan and Chongfeng have more than 110 million people, the population and GDP are huge, and there are obvious regional open advantages, and the development is relatively stable.He pointed out that the nominal growth rates of Sichuan and Chongqing in the first half of this year were 6.6 % and 6.2 %, respectively, 1.2 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points higher than 5.4 % in the country, indicating that Sichuan and Chongqing continued to lead the leading role in the west.
Yao Shujie also said that the GDP of Chongqing continued to lead about 20 billion yuan (S $ 3.7 billion) in the first half of this year. The possibility of surpassing Guangzhou throughout the year is still relatively high. Now it is too early to judge that the growth of Shancheng's growth in the second half of the year is too early.
Guangxi exported and invested in "Binghuo Two Sky" in the first half of the year
In the first half of this year, exports and investment in Guangxi faced the phenomenon of "two days of ice and fire". Foreign trade exports rose 51.7 % year -on -year, but fixed asset investment dropped by 21.1 % year -on -year.First Financial quoted the analysis of Wu Jian, director of the regional economic research institute of Guangxi Academy of Social Sciences, explaining that investment was the main cause of affecting the sharp decline in economic growth in Guangxi in the second quarter.
According to statistics, the real estate development investment in eight provinces and cities in the first half of this year has maintained growth, and Guangxi and Yunnan have decreased by 43.4 % and 33 % respectively; Qinghai and Chongqing also decreased by 27.8 % and 21 %, respectively.
Yao Shujie and Qiu Dongyang believe that after more than 10 years of maintaining high -speed growth through real estate, western China is currently facing excess and saturated structural problems, and structural adjustment pain may last for two or three years.
But Yao Shujie judged that China still has the population of about 300 million farmers (rural areas to urban hukou). These migrant population is currently in the city without fixed work and does not enjoy long -term social education guarantee. ThereforeThe rural houses are still unpredictable when buying a house in the city, and the investment direction is unclear.He believes that if the official improves the policy and the foreign population is equal, urban real estate will still have a large rigid demand.
Qiu Dongyang evaluated that the trend of the rural population to the city has peaked, and then the real estate as the main means to drive the western economy "almost no possibility."In the future, local governments may need to promote the construction of housing from the original to the level of intelligence to upgrade and transform the house, and promote the transformation through the digital update of the house equipment to promote growth.
