Last weekend went to Nanjing Road Pedestrian Street in the center of Shanghai, and was shocked by the turbulent summer tourists: from the streets to the end of the street, the water was not leaked, and even many police officers maintained order at the intersection and subway stations.And this is just an ordinary weekend night.
Li Chun, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission of China, also shared a trivial matter at a press conference this week: he watched the Midnight Square of Changan 30,000 miles on the weekend, and found that there were no seats in the theater. In the end, he only bought the side side.seat.
This kind of personal experience, it is difficult to not make people feel that Chinese folk consumption is flourishing.However, the actual situation is that after the total retail sales of consumer goods have undergone revenge at the beginning of the year, the momentum gradually slowed down, and the year -on -year growth rate fell sharply from 12.7%in May to 3.1%in June.
The weak consumption situation can also be seen from the e -commerce platform.After the "618" promotion in the middle of the year, both e -commerce giants Taobao and JD.com have not announced sales and year -on -year increase. Among them, Taobao has not announced the total turnover for the second consecutive year.
In the first half of this year, the final consumption expenditure contributed to 77.2%of China's economic growth; when exports were weakened by foreign demand, consumption was self -evident.After a successive introduction of measures to promote home consumption and automobile consumption, the China National Development and Reform Commission also released measures to restore and expand consumption this week to start consumption from improving automobiles, housing, catering, and cultural tourism, and boost domestic demand for recovery.
However, in the 20 measures of the ocean, no cash or consumer coupons were mentioned, but it focused on the development of new consumption scenarios and enhanced the consumer experience.For example, it is required to fully implement a paid vacation system to promote summer consumption; museums, amusement parks, etc. to extend the open hours and promote night consumption; improve the rural e -commerce and express logistics distribution system, and reduce consumer credit interest rates in financial institutions.
Li Chunlin emphasized that promoting the consumption policy is not to "empty wallets" and "overdraft demand", but to help residents save expenses and buy products with low price.Netizens ridiculed: "I am lacking in the cheap product? I am missing money." Some people promised: "If you can solve the problem of shyness in the pocket, immediately respond to calling for consumption and not stimulating the country."
Although the central government has not given subsidies for real gold and silver, some local governments have issued consumer coupons for their own pockets.Since this week, Nanning, Hainan, Shenzhen and Shanghai have issued consumer vouchers to promote cultural tourism, shopping and sports consumption.The Jiangxi Provincial Government announced that it will arrange 100 million yuan (RMB, the same, S $ 18.67 million) for provincial business funds in the second half of the year for consumer vouchers.
But at the same time, audit reports released by various governments show that consumer vouchers issued in recent years have not only neglected management, but also have poor consumption effects.For example, if the four places were found to be issued by the four places to issue consumer vouchers, more than 70 % of the 8 million yuan of consumer coupons arranged by Hainan Province were not approved.Wulheng County, Texas, Shandong arranges 10,000 yuan in consumer vouchers, and actually spends only 935 yuan, and only three merchants benefit.
Some analysts believe that consumer coupons issued by local governments are just a lot of money.Some people believe that consumption reflects long -term confidence. Without the bottom of the family, paying money can only solve the problem of the moment.
Does the Chinese folk still have the potential to be stimulated?If you just look at the number of residents' deposits, the answer is yes.Chinese residents' deposits increased by 1.784 trillion yuan last year, the increase of nearly double the previous year.However, during the same period, the consumer confidence index plummeted to a record low, and the income confidence declined, showing that the increase in savings was based on the slowdown in residential income growth and low willingness to consumption and investment.In addition, the risks of the property market rising last year also impacted the public's willingness to buy a house.
Although the impact of the crown disease this year on consumption has greatly weakened, the anti -winds faced by the Chinese economy have not diminished, and the public is still expected to be pessimistic about the prospects, and the income is not increasing.This led to the "retaliation consumption" and "retaliation buying" of experts' previous expected "retaliation consumption."Guo Lei, the chief economist of Guangfa Securities, calculated based on the latest consumption data that the relatively weakest consumption is currently the most weakest. The main decoration is still building decoration and daily necessities. The former is related to the weakness of real estate sales.
In the final analysis, the Chinese people have neither lack of consumption potential, nor a willingness to consume, and lack of confidence in the future.It is unrealistic and unreasonable to use the prevented savings of planning to plan ahead of rainfall. Buying a house and a car.
The official consumption policies issued by the official can only improve the consumer experience; consumer coupons issued in various places are only itchy for booting of consumption confidence.To release consumption potential, it is possible to ensure employment and boost income in order to dispel the uncertainty of the people to the future. Do not worry about consumption "empty wallets" and "overdraft demand".
The Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China proposed at a meeting held at the end of July that it is necessary to "improve the employment to the strategic high -level consideration" and expand consumption by increasing the income of residents, and drive effective supply through terminal demand.This shows that the decision -making level has realized the problem.Next, it depends on how the official fist is made to improve the consumption capacity of residents, stimulate the willingness of private consumption, and re -activate this huge consumer market.
