China ’s highest decision -making level released signals to further relax the management and control of the property market, stimulate consumption, and resolve local debt risks at the planned conference in the second half of the year.The analysis predicts that the official will not introduce a package of stimulus supporting facilities, but also hopes that through the continuous policy superposition effect, "from quantitative change to qualitative changes" boost market confidence.
According to Xinhua News Agency, the Politburo of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on Monday (July 24) under the official Chinese official Chinese official, analyzing the current economic situation, and deploying economic work in the second half of the year.
After the second quarter of economic data released last week was not as expected, this meeting held as early as the same period of previous years made a more severe judgment on the Chinese economic situation, saying that the current economy faces new difficulties in difficulties. "It is mainly due to domestic demand.Insufficient, some enterprises have difficulty in operating, there are many hidden risks in key areas, and the external environment is complicated and severe. "
The meeting emphasized that the economic work in the second half of the year should increase the regulation of macro policies, and strive to expand domestic demand, boost confidence, and prevent risks.In response to the continuous downturn of market confidence and the continuous rise in youth unemployment rates, the meeting rarely made the "active capital market, boosted investor confidence", and "increasing the stability of employment to a strategic high -level consideration".
Compared with the Politburo Conference in April, this meeting no longer reiterates that "housing does not fry", but proposes to adapt to the new situation of "major changes in supply and demand relationships in the property market and adjust and optimize real estate policies in a timely manner."This has undergone profound changes with the property market supply and demand relationship proposed by the Central Bank of China this month. The tone of "the policy existence of marginal optimization in the past in the market has been introduced in the past for a long time."Yan Yuejin, the research director of the Yiju Research Institute of Real Estate Consulting Institute, predicts that the official will introduce a series of measures to support the sluggish sales terminal, especially in terms of restrictions on purchases for first -tier cities and further loose mortgages.
Following the introduction of measures to promote home and automobile consumption last week, the meeting reiterated the basic role of consumer economic growth, boosted large consumption such as automobiles, electronic products, and home furnishings, and promoting service consumption such as sports and leisure, cultural tourism.
In addition, the meeting also required "effectively preventing and resolving local debt risks and formulating a package of debt -based debt", which is more specific than "strengthening local government debt management in April to strengthen local government debt management and strictly control new debt".
Xing Zhaopeng, a senior Chinese strategist at the Bank of Australia and New Bank, believes that it is the two major priorities of this meeting through adverse period measures to boost domestic demand and resolve local debt risks.
As the official regards the private economy as an important starting point for the economy, the meeting also requires effectively optimizing the development environment of private enterprises and formulating policies and measures to promote private investment.
The China National Development and Reform Commission issued policy documents on Monday, which put forward 17 suggestions for promoting high -quality development of private investment, including encouraging private capital to participate in major projects in the fields of transportation, water conservancy, clean energy, new infrastructure, etc.The Development and Reform Commission of various places sort out a list of investment projects suitable for public capital promotion.
But this document issued with the "Private Economy 31" has not significantly boosted the stock market confidence.The Lukang stock market fell again on Monday, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indexes had fallen to a low point in the past and a half months.
Interviewed analysts: The cost of boosting confidence will be higher and higher with time shifts
Wang Jun, chief economist of Huatai Assets, interpreted in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post. The meeting stated that the decision -making layer was aware of the serious economic situation and will strengthen the adverse cycle regulation through macro -control."Although there is no so -called package of stimulus supporting facilities, the newly introduced policy effects are constantly overlay, which will form a joint force to improve market confidence."
Xie Dongming, director of the research director of the Greater China of Singapore Overseas Chinese Bank, analyzed in an analysis in the interview that the Politburo meeting clicked various issues of market concern, but there was no new expression in currency and fiscal policy.Money 'hasn't appeared yet. "
Xie Dongming added that the official has successively introduced multiple documents since this month, and various ministries and commissions have also negotiated with Chinese and foreign entrepreneurs and investors respectively. It is believed that the continuous superposition policy will be deformed from quantity to qualitatively at a certain point in time."The official should pay attention to that with the time of time, the cost of boosting confidence will become higher and higher."
