The weakness of China's economic desire has recently become a lot of attention.Friends traveling to Europe not long ago, and gathered with the local Chinese fellows who were locally worked, the other party couldn't help asking: "What is the domestic economy?"
Recently, colleagues have been traveling to Beijing or visiting relatives. After returning, they said that they felt normal in the urban area, but when they arrived at the country, they saw that the airport store was not open. By this week, the door of the shop was covered with seals.It's scary. "
The crown disease that lasted for three years has passed, but the traces are still there.The "epidemic marks" not only stayed at the deserted capital international airport, but also reflected in the macro data, the situation of the property market and the unemployment rate of the youth.kinetic energy.
A series of economic indicators announced in June weakened: China ’s exports in May decreased by 7.5%year -on -year; industrial producers' factory price index (PPI) decreased to 4.6%, which has been reduced by eight months; industrial increases have increased; industrial increases have increased; industrial increaseThe value increased from 5.6%in April to 3.5%; consumption was not strong. In May, China's consumption increased by 12.7%, and the growth rate fell 5.7 percentage points compared to April.
What makes the average person more feel is that the survey rate of young people aged 16 to 24 reached a new high of 20.8%. The actual number is believed to be higher.0.10%.On the market, college graduates are "finding difficulties", and some "sad" homeowners have to cut prices to sell. Middle -class bees who have more than money on hand and have nowhere to invest in buying luxury goods and gold preservation.
China's senior leaders have obviously discussed whether to introduce large -scale economic stimulus supporting facilities, including whether to relax the property market restriction regulations to "support the market".The State Council held a executive meeting last week, focusing on the four aspects of increasing macro policy regulation and focusing on expanding effective demand, "research and proposed a group of policy measures", and emphasized that "the conditions and measures with conditions must be introduced in time and implemented in a hurry."Essence
To launch a stimulating economic facilities, money requires money. After the previous three years, it has huge sums of money to conduct nucleic acid testing and isolation, and the real estate is continuously downturn. Many local governments have been stretched out and even liabilities.The Wall Street Journal quoted the people familiar with the matter last week that the Chinese government is considering the issuance of 10 trillion yuan (S $ 180 billion) infrastructure special Treasury bonds, while relaxing the restrictions on house purchase to alleviate the debt pressure of the local government.It is said that these plans will be released this week, but no heavy news has been introduced.
Civil financial scholars are very anxious, calling on the government to quickly rescue the market, especially the real estate market. Some financial authors shouted, "Only the property market can save domestic demand."
The former deputy director of the Office of the Central Finance and Economics Committee and the current member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference Yin Yanlin publicly shouted publicly on the weekend that the Chinese economy has been significantly less than expected since April.The overall improvement of economic operations proposed by the Central Economic Work Conference is far from far, especially the requirements for ensuring the stable development of the real estate market. "
Yin Yanlin emphasized that the impact of real estate on the economy must not be ignored. "Isn't it a question you like or dislike? This is a matter of economic laws."He said that he should resolutely block the expected negative cycle, do not engage in the regulation of squeezing toothpaste, and the policy that requires a force must not hesitate. The monetary policy must be more reflected.The place is hot first ", and the diffusion drives the market where you are still watching.
To a certain extent, the Chinese government's market rescue action has been launched.In the past two weeks, the central bank continuously cut interest rates. Tuesday reduced two key loan interest rates on Tuesday, and lowered 10 basis points to 3.55%of the one -year Chinese loan market quotation interest rate (LPR).4.2%.
However, as the decline is lower than expected, the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock markets fell, led the Asian stock market.The central bank did not launch the "asymmetric interest rate cut" predicted by market sources, that is, the five -year LPR downgrade was greater than the one -year LPR, which made people feel that the policy was insufficient, and the government did not prepare a signal of the "support market".Some people even suspect that the government no longer pays attention to economic growth, which has further hit confidence.
Does Chinese leaders no longer pay attention to economic growth?This should not be a fact. The problem is that there are not too many methods it can use.Experts criticized the measures of "squeezing toothpaste". They believed that the official stimulation of the economy was not fierce enough or fast, but there were not many policy options that could be immediate.
In terms of real estate, in 1990, the per capita residential area of urban residents in China was only 7.1 square meters. By 2020, it had reached 41.76 square meters. Real estate in some cities had excessive real estate, which means that the era of relying on real estate to drive high economic growth will end.The report issued by Goldman Sachs this month predicts that China's real estate will continue to be sluggish for several years, and government policy orientation will be the slowdown of the market, rather than creating another rising cycle of the property market.
Some scholars have suggested that the government quickly introduces policy to restore consumer confidence, such as subsidies for consumers, issuing cash or improving social benefits.However, there was no sign of showing that the Chinese government was preparing to do so.
At the end of the root cause, the three years of prevention and control of the epidemic prevention and the rectification of some key industries will not recover so quickly. The reversal of globalization has also brought new challenges to the Chinese economy.day.However, because the situation in other countries in the world is not optimistic, the current multinational companies still attach importance to the long -term development potential of the Chinese market, and that China has survived this difficulty.However, if the decline time continues to be too long, the trend of China's rise will be re -evaluated. The next six months to one year will be a critical period and a severe test period for government economic policies.
