When reporting the journalism of Shanghai School District two years ago, the real estate agent had seen a few sets of less than 50 square meters, but the asking price was close to 7 million yuan (RMB S $ 131 million).EssenceI asked the intermediary incredible: Can such a house be appreciated?
The young intermediary brother heard this problem, and it was unbelievable: "Even if the house prices in other places fall, Shanghai will rise."
I did not expect that two years later, the house prices in Shanghai really fell; the most powerful one was the second -hand house that did not worry about selling.
Open the platform for sale platforms, and many second -hand housing slogans directly indicate "multiple price reductions" and "fractures for sale".A set of elevator rooms in the urban area, platform data shows that the price has been reduced eight successively in the past three months, and the cumulative decrease has exceeded 1 million yuan.
Some real estate intermediary posts have disclosed, and even the high -end luxury home owners are now in marketing awareness. They not only send red envelopes to the intermediaries, but also place mineral water, fruits and snacks in the house.Some homeowners even made a notice on the sofa: "Sitting here to see Jiang Jing is the best."
The urgent and enthusiasm of repeated prices and the enthusiasm of actively entertaining all shows that the Shanghai property market has shifted to buyers.In other words, it is not in a hurry to buy a house, and it is urgent to sell a house.The house in Shanghai is now selling.
According to the 70 large and medium -sized cities announced by the National Bureau of Statistics last week, the price of second -hand housing was briefly heated in the first quarter of this year, and the decline in May.The largest price of prices in 70 cities is Shanghai, which has fallen 0.8 % month -on -month.Statistics in the industry also show that the price of the seller of the Shanghai property market has slipped for three consecutive months, while the listing of housing listed on the market has increased by 82 % to 180,000 units in half a year.
Although the second -hand houses for sale have surged and the price is reduced, according to the Economic Observer, in May, the transaction volume in Shanghai in May was only about 16,000 units, a decrease of one -third from March.
Seeing real estate is slow, some homeowners simply remove their houses to avoid being sold by extrusion.However, the listing of listings is high, indicating that there are still many people who need to sell houses.According to industry insiders, some of the sellers who are anxious to use money have signed a house buying agreement and must be replaced by "selling one, one, one,More and more people have transferred home property to overseas.
Two years ago, although the intermediary brother did not expect that the house in Shanghai would be worried, his judgment was not all wrong -when house prices in Shanghai began to fall, it was even more difficult for other cities in China to fall.
The prices of second -hand housing in first -tier cities in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen all fell in May, and the price of new houses and second -hand housing in Shenzhen has fallen.Among the 70 large and medium cities, there are as many as 55 cities in second -hand housing prices, an increase of 21 over April.According to data compiled by the real estate research institution, the prices of second -hand housing in 100 cities in May have hit the largest decline since 2022.
The property market is a barometer of the Chinese economy. When the market is fatigue, it expands from new houses to second -hand housing, and spreads from second- and third -tier cities to first -tier cities, indicating that pessimistic expectations for the overall economy are increasing.Even in the most developed big cities, people's confidence in preservation of real estate is shaking.
Although some house agents shouting the slogan of "the best time to enter the market", the reality is those who are anxious to enter the market. They have already recovered the economy at the beginning of this year and the property market has begun to rebound.The buyer who was still watching saw that the subsequent economic recovery was weak, and the property market fell again after a brief rebound, and he would not act lightly.
On the other hand, on the other hand, on the occasion of the unemployment rate in China, 11.58 million college graduates who have also refreshed the record are also entering the society, and the employment market is facing unprecedented pressure.The layoffs of the large -scale science and technology manufacturers that were scratched last year also caused employees of large factories to be either fell into a housing loan and panic or slow down the pace of buying a house.The unknown unknown to the future has suppressed young people's buying house just needs, making the property market more difficult.
With the recent decline in a series of Chinese economic indicators released by China, many investment institutions have lowered their predictions on China's economic growth this year.The pessimistic outlook for economic prospects makes investors more cautious and consumers are more careful.Economic fatigue has lowered the purchase of the property market, and the downturn in the property market has inhibited domestic demand growth and forms a vicious circle.
The People's Bank of China lowered the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) like this week, and released a strong market signal after a 10 -month interest rate cut.However, most analysts are not optimistic that this measure can quickly boost the property market.Judging from the effectiveness of loosening policies in various places last year, the market has appeared "drug resistance", the policy validity period is shortened, and the effect is getting worse and worse -because they do not cure the original.
Lu Ting, the chief Chinese economist of Nomura Holdings, pointed out that the real obstacle of China's economic recovery is that the people lack confidence.He also warned that the situation in China became more and more like Japan at the end of the last century. After the real estate bubble ruptured, people's confidence weakened, which led to decades of economic growth weakness and price decline.
During the global financial crisis in 2008, the leadership represented by the then Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao frequently called on "confidence is more important than gold and currency."After a lapse of 15 years, how to reshape the confidence of private enterprises and the public has become a problem that is stunned on the road of economic recovery.If the official cannot find the solution as soon as possible, it may be not just a house.
