(Washington/Beijing Comprehensive News) When China's economic recovery is stagnant, the government requires the government to launch more economic support measures.A number of official media in China issued a quoted economist prediction that officials may introduce more currency stimulus measures in the second half of the year to promote the continuous recovery of the economy.
After the People's Bank of China has successively reduced the short -term and medium -term policy interest rates this month, the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) was lowered on Tuesday (June 20).
According to Bloomberg report, China ’s three official securities reported on Wednesday collectively issued reports on Wednesday, quoting the possibility of well -known economists analyzing the official follow -up of more policy tools.The analysis pointed out that policy interest rates "interest rate cuts" and LPR downgrading are just the prelude to policy force, and subsequent monetary policy is expected to continue to increase.
Li Chao, the chief economist of Zhejiang Business Securities, said that the Fed may enter the interest rate reduction cycle in the fourth quarter.It is still possible to reduce standards and reduce interest rates in half a year, and structural policy tools will continue to make efforts.
Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, said that the support of structural tools in the second half of the year will continue, and it can be expected to reduce interest rates during the year.
China Securities Journal quoted CITIC Securities Chief Economist with clearly that it is expected that credit growth is expected to further consume the banking system super reserves, and there is still room for the reduction in the standard. Considering that the peak of MLF expires is approaching, the reduction is expected to land in the third quarter.
Securities Times quoted Song Xuetao, a macro chief analyst at Tianfeng Securities Research Institute, said that considering that the current basic downward pressure is large, interest rate cuts may be just the prelude to policy force, and there are many subsequent incremental policies.From the perspective of monetary policy tools, more structural monetary policy tools and special re -loan tools can be launched in the future, and high -tech manufacturing industries are directed.
The People's Bank of China reduced the one -year and five -year LPR on Tuesday to reduce 10 basis points, but the five -year LPR downgrade was lower than the outside estimated estimation. Market analysis believes that China's currency stimulus measures are not enough to support weak economic recovery.Essence
In theThree official securities reports, the possibility of judging subsequent stimulus measures in an all -round way shows that the market has a high voicing of the government's more economic stimulus measures.
The offshore RMB on Wednesday (21st) has fallen below the 7.2 mark on the US dollar exchange rate. It is the first time this year.Bloomberg reported that a foreign exchange analyst at Bank of Malaya said that due to the failure of the strong stimulus measures that can revive consumers and investors' confidence, the market is concerned about China's economic prospects, and the trend of RMB will continue to be under pressure.
Chinese leadership has once again emphasized the importance of recovery and expanding consumption in public.Xinhua News Agency reported that Wang Huning, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China and chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, attended the Symposium on "Restore and expand consumption" survey and negotiation symposium on Tuesday, said that it is necessary to deeply understand the recovery and expand consumption.The inevitable choice of development is the inherent requirements of the expected goal of economic development throughout the year.
In addition, Liu Yuanchun, the president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, said that some of the original retaliation and compensation effects have begun to subscribe.It is also fading, so it is necessary to build a new round of stability growth policy.
Liu Yuanchun said that China's fiscal policy needs to be re -positioned, and the positive fiscal policy "must be truly active" also pointed out that fiscal force can use more policy financial instruments, and the range of interest rate cuts can be further expanded.