Goldman Sachs analysts reduced China's GDP growth in 2023 from 6%to 5.4%, becoming another big trip to China's economic expectations after Morgan Chase and UBS.
According to Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs said in the report that no matter what kind of easing policy China is about to introduce, it is unlikely that it is more likely to surpass the previous economic downturn, including the policy of 2020.
The report also said that, given the positioning of population atrophy, rising debt levels, and the positioning of China's "housing and housing", the property market and infrastructure stimulus measures may be "targeted and mild".If you follow the old road of real estate and infrastructure to drive the economy, it will contradict the "high -quality growth" that the leadership has repeatedly emphasized.
The People's Bank of China lowered the key policy interest rate last week to reduce the cost of lending and boost market confidence.
The State Council of the State Council of the State Council held a executive meeting on June 16 to propose changes to the economic situation and must take more powerful measures to promote the economy. It also said that a number of policies and measures were studied, but no details were given.
Goldman Sachs reports that the unfavorable factors of China's economic growth may continue. When the decision -making layer introduces effective and effective stimulus measures, it will be constrained by economic and political factors.
Goldman Sachs Economist analyzes that the Chinese government will not issue special government bonds, and it is not possible to start a new round of shantytown renovation like 2015, but the government may accelerate mainly for infrastructure construction.Local special bond issuance and continuing to relax the property market.
