Chinese special manuscript: unbloc

After the CCP's leadership team completed the five -year renewal, the tight epidemic prevention policy finally showed signs of loosening. But the turbulent epidemic of the outbreak has allowed the government to tighten the control and fall into control again. When will China usher in a comprehensive unblocking? How high is the risk of "hard landing"?

In just two weeks, the mood of Beijing citizen He Guang (a pseudonym) was as big as a roller coaster.

Soon after the official relaxation of the crown disease prevention policies earlier this month, a suspected case appeared in He Guang's community.He thought that the whole community would be closed for a week as in the past. He did not expect that only the parties where the parties were located were blocked, and the next day after reviewing normal, it was immediately unblocked.

He Guang has not had time to be happy, and his Chaoyang District has strengthened the control due to surge in cases, asking residents to "unnecessary unnecessary communities."He told Lianhe Morning Post: "The policy is easy to loosen, and now it is tightened again. I don't know how long it will take to relax it."

In the past half a month, He Guang's experience has not only happened in the capital Beijing, but also in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, Guangzhou, Guangzhou, Guangzhou, and western cities in Chongqing ...They highlight the dilemma of China's epidemic prevention policy when they turn, and also foreshadow the pain and twists and turns of the world's second largest economy towards re -opening.

After the closing of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, Chinese officials launched 20 measures to optimize epidemic prevention in early November, including the cancellation of the melting mechanism of immigration flights, shortening the time of isolation, and no longer defining "secrets and secrets".This is regarded by the outside world as a signal that China relaxes control measures and transforms epidemic prevention strategies.

"20" was introduced, local governments followed up and announced the cancellation or suspension of all nucleic acids.However, this new weather was quickly blocked by the sudden heating up.As the scope of infection continues to expand and the number of people continues to rise, it returns to high -pressure epidemic prevention, and even sacrifice more stringent prevention and control.

On November 25th, nearly 35,000 newly infected people in mainland China had a single day in a single day.There are few street people in large cities such as Guangzhou, Beijing, Chongqing, etc., and millions of people are caught in control.

The market participants who were originally optimistic about the "20" will speed up China's open pace, and also adjusted expectations after the epidemic and tightening.Many institutions predict that China will not open the country until March next year.

It is expected to open the country door as soon as March next year

The Oxford Institute of Economics and Research and judge that China's decision -making level believes that too fast and premature relaxation of restrictions may lead to "destructive health crisis".Make targeted sealing.Related epidemic prevention measures are expected to be lifted until the second half of next year.

Liu Jinjin, chief Chinese stock strategist of Goldman Sachs Macro Research Department, also predicts that China's strict epidemic prevention measures will continue until the end of the second quarter of next year, mainly due to the "busy political schedule" in the next six months, and China's elderly population vaccination rate in vaccination rateStill low.

Scholars: If you cannot break through the difficulties, you will move towards economy or prevent epidemic prevention.

However, maintaining the current prevention and control measures means that local finances will continue to bear high epidemic prevention expenses, and production and consumer activities will also be limited. This is undoubtedly worse than the stressful Chinese economy.As a result, Nomura Holdings analysts believe that China's re -opening may be a "long and high price" process.

Lu Xi, assistant professor of the School of Public Policy, Singapore National University, analyzed in an analysis in an interview that if the Chinese epidemic prevention policy cannot break through the current dilemma, it is likely to move towards the "two kinds of hard landing" -the continued tightening of the epidemic prevention policy, which leads to the economic recession of the economy.Economic hard landing; or announced on the eve of the fiscal collapse, causing a hard landing of large -scale infection and death.

Lu Xi believes that to resolve the risk of hard landing, on the one hand, it is necessary to increase the vaccination rate and replace compulsory nucleic acid screening at a lower cost of antigen;"Due to the policy of the city", formulate their respective epidemic prevention standard operation processes (SOP), and solve the mutual responsibility or "one -size -fits -all" chaos caused by the inadequate distribution of power and responsibilities between different regions and levels, so that grass -roots organizations and social institutions will not will not be on the levelI will add it by myself because of fear of responsibility.

But he also pointed out that even if "20 epidemic prevention" can be implemented in the ideal situation, it is much more strict than Taiwan's policy a year and a half ago."After more than a year of unblocking in Taiwan, it is difficult to prepare for mainland China before the end of next spring."

Wang Renxian, the chairman of the Chinese People's Democratic Occupation Society in Taiwan, believes that Taiwan has consumed too much resources in the process of pursuing the epidemic "slowing down" this year. If the mainland can calibrate the policy direction, even if it is unsealed now.

Wang Renxian analyzed in an interview that during the process of coexistence from the Qing zero to coexistence, Taiwan set up too many obstacles for medical treatment because of excessive emphasis on preservation of medical combat power, causing "severe illness to clear zero, light illness excessive control" chaos. "elephant."Once the epidemic prevention is relaxed, the case will definitely rise. There is no need to panic, and there is no need to interfere with mildness. Instead, the focus is on controlling torture and mortality."

Wang Renxian has served as a special consultant of Tianjin, Jiangsu and Yunnan Health Commission.He said that the "national system" in the mainland can help integrate the advantages of medical resources in various places. If they can formulate and improve SOP for medical institutions, help medical care to clarify what kind of patients need to be hospitalized, how to treat after receiving, how to reduce mortality, they can be able to reduce the mortality rate.Prepare a larger -scale epidemic.

Liang Haonan, a specialist in infectious diseases in Singapore, believes that if China wants to completely unblock it, the urgent prince is to increase the vaccine vaccination rate. "The best defense is always vaccine, vaccine, and vaccine."

Liang Haonan's judgment that China's current epidemic is similar to Singapore in May and June this year, but the situation in China is even more serious.This is because the Chinese people vaccinated the active vaccine, not a more effective MRNA vaccine, and the vaccination rate was much lower than Singapore.He said that although most people only need to vaccinate three to four doses of the vaccine, older people may need to protect more vaccines with immune defects.

Data show that as of November 11, 90.3 % of the Chinese population completed the full vaccination of coronary vaccines, but the enhanced needle vaccination rate was only 63 %.Among the 264 million elderly people over the age of 60, 86.4 % of the elderly were inoculated, and 68 % were completed to strengthen needle vaccination; the full vaccination rate of the elderly over 80 years of age was lower, only 65.7 %; the enhanced needle vaccination rate was only 40 %.

In contrast, when Singapore opened the border almost in April this year, 92 % of the population was vaccinated throughout the process, and 71 % was completed.Out of inoculation.Among the elderly over 60, up to 95 % of the entire vaccination; 94 % of the entire vaccination rate of population over 80 years of age is also 94 %.

German Chancellor Tsumarz's visit to China earlier this month that China will allow foreign people in China to vaccinate the Biontech MRNA vaccine.Shen Hongbing, deputy director of the National CDC, was asked at a press conference a week ago when the Fu Bitai vaccine could be used by the Chinese people. The relevant departments are formulating a plan to accelerate the vaccination of the crown disease.Essence

The Wall Street Journal quoted sources as saying that the Chinese government is planning to carry out activities for vaccines for weak constitutions. The goal is to allow 95%of people over 60 years of vaccine.

In addition to increasing the vaccine vaccination rate, China is also accelerating the construction of squares to deal with rapid growth.Guo Yanhong, director of the Medical Emergency Department of the National Health and Health Commission, introduced that since the epidemic, China has continued to strengthen the construction of fixed -point hospitals, squares hospitals, and popular rockers.10 % of the total number of beds in designated hospitals.

Liang Haonan pointed out that multiple barriers to establish multiple barriers through vaccine, masks, oral medicines, hospital beds, and intensive care units can help avoid squeezing medical resources during the outbreak."But data from all over the world show that the best immune method is currently a hybrid immune for vaccination and natural infection.

As a very few countries that still adhere to the "clear zero", China has to face new reality: it has continuously upgraded the prevention and control mechanism in the past two years, and it is difficult to catch up with the speed of virus mutation and spread.It is urgent to establish a new set of protective models.The extremely low population infection rate of the "superior students" logo once became the disadvantage of the establishment of a group of immune barrier.As countries around the world have successively lined and reopen the country, they have left less and less for this great country to catch up, and the price paid for it is getting higher and higher.

In He Guang's opinion, the prerequisite for China's unblocking is neither the vaccine vaccination rate nor the medical resource reserve, but "how the boss (Chinese official) thinks".He said: "Our epidemic prevention policy has not been based on science, but is transferred by personal will. The boss just participated in the G20 (Twenty Summit), and maybe he is still watching the World Cup.If the world is in line, the country will let go soon. "

The sealing and controlling upgrade causing the crowd to prevent the epidemic prevention and the panic

"20 epidemic prevention" was introduced the next day, when Guangzhou resident Chen Ping went out, he found that the nucleic acid detection point near the home was demolished by the staff.Chen Ping stepped forward happily to help, thinking: I will not have to measure the acid every day in the future.

But a few hours later, Chen Ping was surprised to find that the sheds that had just been demolished in the morning stood up again, waiting for people who were waiting to measure the acid to lined up again.The staff told him that the superior received a complaint from many people and asked to continue to arrange nucleic acid testing, "otherwise it would be more chaotic."

China has introduced 20 measures to optimize epidemic prevention, and the infected people in Guangzhou are increasing sharply at the speed of thousands of people a day.In the Tianhe District where Chen Ping was located, some residents were at a loss because of the management and control of the control. In Haizhu District, which had severe epidemic, hundreds of people rushed out of the seal -controlled area late at night and once conflicted with the police.

When the transformation of the rigorous zero policy for more than two years, the decision -making layer must fill in the shortcomings of the medical level, as well as the huge differences of public opinion.The continuous upgrading of the dissatisfaction with the control of the seal makes it difficult to sustain the high -pressure policy; once the epidemic prevention is relaxed, the questioning and panic that follows it has formed a resistance to the new policy.

Foxconn Park, Henan, where Apple's mobile phone factory is located in the world's largest Apple mobile phone factory, carried out closed -loop operation after the outbreak last month, but a large number of workers fled overnight due to worrying about the infection, and even returned to hiking.Although the official post emphasizes that the crown disease is a "self -limited disease", the doubts of the workers have not been eliminated.Hundreds of workers conflicted with the park's guards on Wednesday (November 23) to express their dissatisfaction with wages and concerns about infection.

Wang Renxian, the chairman of the Chinese People's Civil Anturation Society in Taiwan, pointed out in an interview that after three years of mutation, the mortality rate has been greatly reduced.However, in a society where clear zero is strictly implemented in the early stage, it is not easy to eliminate the public's panic."In the early days of unblocking Taiwan, the people were frightened and ran to the hospital as soon as they were infected. If you want to let go of mainland China, you must guide public opinion and let the public have a correct understanding of the virus."

Zhang Wenhong, director of the National Infectious Disease Medical Center of China, said at a public event in Hainan on November 18 that the coronary virus gradually entered a stable period under the law of nature, and the damage to humans was gradually decreased.Zhang Boli, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, also emphasized in an interview with the media that the weakening of coronary virus virus has a large probability of toxicity. At present, the proportion of severe illnesses and deaths is very low. Optimized measures are very timely and necessary.

But on the other hand, the People's Daily of the Chinese official media has published more than a dozen signed "Zhongyin" comments from November 12, emphasizing that optimizing and adjusting prevention and control measures "is not relaxed, nor is it 'lying flat'", notIt is necessary to "unswervingly implement the" dynamic clearing zero "general policy" and refer to that China has sufficient advantages to achieve "dynamic clear zero".

Liu Ying (pseudonym), a citizen of Shijiazhuang, Hebei, believes that the Chinese media will be demonized for a long time, causing many people to talk about the dysplasia.Strict management and control further deepen the fear of the people, making the epidemic prevention policy difficult to ride tigers.

Liu Ying's building was closed last week because of cases.She comforts her neighbors in the resident chat group. Even if she is infected with crown disease, there is no need to worry about it. The symptoms of ordinary people will not be too serious.But it didn't take long for a neighbor to persuade her to delete the article privately: "It is in case someone has the most ill, and said that I mislead the masses, and the impact is not good."

Although Liu Ying didn't think her point was wrong, she eventually deleted her speech.She lamented: "We little people speak insignificant, and fewer and fewer experts who can come out to tell the truth. When a few days ago, when the nucleic acid was measured, I heard people say that everyone is like a bird who is raised in a cage. One day, the door is opened.Dare not fly out. "