A survey on economists shows that China may not be able to get out of the crown disease at the endstart.
According to Bloomberg News on Friday (November 11), nearly half of the 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg believes that China believes that China has followed by China that China has followed fromThe "Clear Zero" policy will not end in the second quarter of 2023, that is, after the two conferences held in early March, it will be reopened; another seven people say that it will be on July to September;It will change the policy at a certain time in 2024, at least four years after Wuhan's first report of the virus.
Bloomberg's investigation requires the respondents to choose their expected re -opening time, but did not require them to predict the open steps.
The higher the higher, this exacerbates people's guessing of Beijing's sooner or later, and domestic and internationally start to make expectations for re -opening up.
Bloomberg analyzed that when the Chinese government began to reduce the restrictions on epidemic prevention of consumption and investment, it is the key to the economist's evaluation of the prospects for next year next year.question.
Depending on UBS, because the economy will not be able to rely on exports and infrastructure investment, any recovery will depend on people after the restrictions of epidemic prevention.Start the speed of spending money again.
Chang Shu, Chief Asian economist, said that once it turns to coexist with the virus, a large number of demand will be released.She pointed out that this will promote up to 1.6 percentage domestic GDP (GDP) growth in the next year, of which the increase in transportation, hotels and retail industries has the largest growth.
Shu Chang mentioned that even if it relaxes the epidemic prevention regulations, the economy will still face strong resistance from real estate downturn and weakening external demand.She wrote that assuming that the "clear zero" policy was canceled in the second half of the year, the growth rate in 2023 should rise from 3.5%this year to 5.7%.
The normal time for domestic travel, private consumption and business activities may be much later than some market expectations.
