The impact of the tightening of China's epidemic exudation and prevention and control measures continues. In October, the service industry continued the contraction trend of September, and the prosperity decreased further.
According to Caixin.com on Thursday (November 3), the latest data was announced, and October Caixin China General Service Industry Business Activity Index (PMI) recorded 48.4, below September 0.9 percentage points.The second month in a row to the contraction range is the lowest since June.
The previously announced October Caixin Chinese manufacturing PMI rose 1.1 percentage points to 49.2, which is still in the contraction range;The lowest month.
Caixin China's manufacturing PMI trend is not consistent with the National Bureau of Statistics of China, and the service industry and comprehensive PMI trend are the same as the Bureau of Statistics.Earlier, the October manufacturing PMI PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China had fallen by 0.9 percentage points to 49.2, the service industry PMI decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 47.9, and the comprehensive PMI fell 1.9 percentage points to 49.0. Since June, it has fallen below the critical point.
From the perspective of sub -item data, affected by the epidemic, the production and demand of China's service industry have contracted for the second consecutive month. The new order index rises slightly in the contraction range. The new export order index has undergone September in SeptemberAfter a brief expansion, it dropped below the Rongku Line again, and it was the lowest in June, showing that the outside of the service industry was weakened.
Despite the weak supply and demand, the Chinese service industry expands for the first time during the employment year.The October employment index rose to the expansion range and recorded the highest since June 2021.The interviewed Chinese companies reported that this was related to the expansion of capacity and the acceleration of sales.However, due to the restrictions on the epidemic, the backlog workload index is higher than the critical value for the third consecutive month.
Under the support of rising costs such as oil prices and wages, the service industry investment price index remains in the expansion range in October, but slightly decreased.The sales side continued to be affected by rising costs. The factory price index has risen above the critical point, and it has recorded the highest in the past eight months and has a slight long -term average since 2005.
The confidence of the service industry has improved slightly. The business expectation index has recovered from 6 months in September, but it is still lower than the long -term average.Many Chinese companies believe that there will be a strong post -recovery in the next year, but some companies are worried about the uncertainty of the epidemic and prevention and control measures, or a impact on business activities and market demand.
Wang Yan, a senior economist of Caixin Think Tank, said that in October, the prosperity of the manufacturing and service industry continued to decline, supply and internal and external demand contracted, and corporate costs rose.At present, the internal and external situations are still complicated and severe, and the adverse factors affecting economic development have increased. Especially in China, the epidemic in many places has significantly restricting the two ends of the supply and demand, and the foundation of economic recovery is not firm.
Wang Yan said that the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasized that "development is the first priority of the party's ruling country" and helps stabilize the long -term expectations of the market;Stable domestic demand policies need to be strengthened. As mentioned in the 20th National Congress report, "Strengthening the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy, focusing on expanding domestic demand, and enhancing the basic role of consumption on economic development and the key role of investment in optimization supply structure."
