The "golden signboard" of the president has accumulated a huge great advantage for the former US Republican President Trump and the current Democratic President Biden Biden, and the competitors have failed to pose a significant threat to the two.U.S. voters are unhappy again that the US presidential election in 2024 still seems to be a battle for worship.
The primary primary primary procedures for democratic and republican parties will start next Monday (January 15) to start the drums for the presidential election held on November 5.Although many polls show that many Americans do not want to see Trump (77 years old) and Biden (81 years old) again, but the support rate has always been far ahead of the party's opponents.
Todd Belt, director of the Political Management Project of Political Management Graduate Graduate School of George Washington University, pointed out in a interview with Lianhe Zaobao.Variables, that is, there are many advantages to support endorsement, volunteers and campaign funds ... This will not be offset by the age of the two and Trump's legal trouble. "
Adam Garfinkle, an American politician of the Institute of International Relations of Nanyang University of Technology, Singapore Nanyang Institute of Technology, also pointed out that Trump's former presidential identity is that he can putOne of the factors of the opponent in the party.
Gentakle said in an interview with Lianhe Zaobao: "He was elected fairly and fairly in 2016, and in American politics, it gave him a very high position ... During his presidential period, he could use his authority to give others his status.And interests, they all owe Trump's feelings, and he replaces their political loyalty. "
As the highest status and most likely to win nominated candidates, Trump has attracted more election funds, and the US presidential election known for burning money is also a financial competition.
The position is extremely distinctive but benefits Trump
The US primary selection system is also beneficial to Trump, which has a relatively extreme position.Govech said that activists dominated by political parties are often more ideologically.A trick to run for president is therefore to win the party nomination in the extreme route, and then turn to the middle to win the throne of the president. Trump is better than any other opponent, and is more convincing and consistent.In addition, political parties that loses the election campaign in the democratic government often become more extreme in the next election, and the Republican Party is leaning further after the defeat in 2020.
The polls announced by the US Broadcasting Corporation in November last year showed that 34%of Republican voters reported that they supported Trump and more supported the Republican Party.Investigations from other institutions have also found that these loyal supporters do not think that Trump has committed any serious federal crimes in the private document case or inciting the riots of Congress.
Belt said: "Trump's supporters are particularly loyal to him, making it more difficult for others to compete with him. It is also important that only the most enthusiastic party members will participate in the preliminary selection and party membership parliament, and these peopleTrump supporters are not proportional. "
The New York Times analysis pointed out that Trump's loyal supporters estimate that only 30%to 40%of the Republican primary voters.In other words, other candidates still have the opportunity to catch up, but the difficulty to overcome.
The rest of the Republican voters can be roughly divided into two categories.Support Trump, most of them have been educated, wealthy, and their positions are milder.These two types of voters have different views on the issues such as the military aid Ukraine, abortion, and immigration reform. However, to defeat Trump, candidates must try to unite these two groups of voters.
The entertainment of US politics is also the phenomenon that Trump is good at using it.Before becoming the president, he was a TV star, knowing the way of self -propaganda."Many voters are very easy to be distracted and cannot focus high -quality attention in anything. If they do not read, they do not know how to think about public policy issues or political philosophy ... they seemTake the entire real world as a TV reality show that will never end. "
Afraid of being a "sinner" most of the Democratic party potential candidates would rather wait for 2028
Like Trump, Biden enjoys a high position in the Democratic Party.Gafenkell pointed out that Biden was Catholics from the middle -class families. It belongs to the gentle school and served as a senator for many years. He has been the eight -year vice president in the popular Obama administration.Many analysts believe that he has the political conditions of winning the re -election, which has persuaded the potential challengers to a certain extent.
At present, the Democratic Party is roughly united to support the re -election of Biden. Only two polls have less than 10%of the support rates and low -profile opponents -American inspirational book authors Marianne Williamson and MPs of MinnesotaDean Phillips challenged him.
From the past experience, the probability of success to challenge to serve as president within the party is not high, which may also lead to Bayeng's great injuries and increase the opportunity to enhance the Republican candidate to the White House.The Democrats who held the president's dream therefore would rather wait until 2028 for the election to avoid becoming a "sinner."How to promote Bayeng and avoid excessive sales at the same time in the party is a problem that many Democrats who want to enter the White House are currently facing.
At present, the election in 2024 may be a duel.However, Gentakle emphasized that there is still 10 months before the election, and the situation is still changing.Many voters who look at politics with entertainment filters lack patience and change, and Trump's attractiveness to them may be fading."He is an old news, and he must work harder to dominate the news cycle every day."
Trump faces the challenges of the four people in the party.According to data from the US election analysis website 538, as of January 8, Trump's average support rate in the national poll was 61.8%, and the main opponents Rondesantis and Nikki Haley were mainly opponents.Only 12.1%and 11.2%were won.
The Governor of Florida, Desandis, was regarded as Trump's most powerful challenger, but did not set off much waves after the official election.The former governor of South Carolina Heiri bullish the trend, but it is difficult to say whether it can maintain the momentum.
Former President Kennedy's nephew, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who will run as a non -party member.Participation may also impact the election.Although the third -party qualification opportunities are small, they may divide the votes in the "disruption".
