After the North Korean leader Kim Jong -un visited Russia in September this year, Pyongyang finally successfully launched a military reconnaissance satellite.South Korea determined that Russia provided technical guidance for this satellite launch.This latest development has deepened the doubts about the military cooperation between the United States, Japan and South Korea, and Russia, which has caused the situation on the Korean Peninsula to become nervous.
North Korea claims that the military reconnaissance satellite "Malligyong-1" (Malligyong-1 "(November 21) is claimed on Tuesday (November 21), and the reconnaissance satellite will officially perform reconnaissance missions from December 1.This statement triggered strong condemnation from the United States, South Korea and Japan, accusing North Korea of publicly violated UN sanctions and destroy regional stability.
According to the North Korean Society, North Korean leader Kim Jong -un checked photos of the Anderson Air Force Base taken from Satellite and the major US military bases such as Aprla Port.
Kim Jong -un emphasized that North Korea should launch more reconnaissance satellites to enter the track, providing sufficient and valuable real -time intelligence for North Korean armed forces.
Experts warn that the successful entry of the North Korean military reconnaissance satellites means that the intelligence collection ability of the Kim Jong -un regime will gain a Great Leap Forward, especially the surveillance of South Korea and the United States, which helps North Korea to obtain key intelligence data during military conflicts.
In the past, only the United States, South Korea, and Japan through satellite reconnaissance North Korea's military deployment and mobilization, and shared information.In the future, North Korea can also monitor US -South Korea military mobilization and some defense in Japan.
Korea Intelligence Institute: Guidance from North Korea to Russian Technology Experts
In May and August this year, North Korea's two military reconnaissance satellites ended in failure.The South Korean National Intelligence Institute said on Thursday (23rd) that North Korea has successfully launched the reconnaissance satellite this time, and there is a great possibility of Russia to assist in Russia. I believe it is the data of North Korea with the data failed to launch satellites to Russia.plan.
South Korean scholars believe that North Korea has obtained the guidance of Russian technical experts and has improved its launch power.Nan Chengxu, a professor at the University of Korea University, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post: "This must be the result of the Pukin Association."
In September this year, Kim Jong -un visited for the first time after the epidemic. The Oriental Space launcher, which symbolizes Russia's independent space exploration, met with Russian President Putin. During the period, he also visited the Russian Far East Military Factory.
Nan Chengxu believes that North Korea and Russia have conducted aerospace technology and ammunition transactions."South Korea is convinced that Russia has sent engineers to Pyongyang after the Pukin Association, but it is not clear whether Russia has delivered rocket engines to North Korea."
Nan Chengxu said that North Korea and Russia have expanded military technical cooperation and improved North Korea's spy satellite technology. It is expected that North Korea will have more bold military provocations in the next way, which has a serious threat to South Korea's national security.
He warned that with the help of Russia, North Korea's nuclear missile threats have become increasingly upgraded, and it does not rule out the possibility of North Korea's future missile attack on the southern Korean peninsula."South Korea does not have nuclear weapons, and the city's population is nearly 10 million, only 40 kilometers away from the South Korean non -military region. If North Korea launches a missile attack, the consequences are unimaginable."
Artyom Lukin, the regional and deputy director of the International Research Center of Russia, said that although it is not sure whether North Korea has successfully launched a reconnaissance satellite, Russia provides any assistance, but it cannot exclude such this.possibility.
Lu Jin pointed out in the inquiry of Lianhe Morning Post email: "North Korea's two launch this year has failed. The third launch was successfully promised to help North Korea develop satellite technology a few months ago."
However, many experts have skepticism for Moscow to provide Pyongyang with a assistance attitude enough to change satellite launch in about two months.
Professor Zhang Yonggen, South Korea ’s University of Aeronautics, said that North Korea could not use Russia's technology or hardware to assist reconstruction satellites during this period."But Russia can provide some analysis of previous faults and telemetry data."
Frequent interaction of North Korea and Russia trigger attention
Recently, North Korea and Russia have frequently interacted, and the two countries have become closer and closer, which has attracted widespread attention from the international community.The outside world speculates that North Korea and Russia may cooperate with military reconnaissance satellites, weapons and equipment.
Kim Jong -un promised at the Puchang Fair that North Korea will use bilateral relations with Russia as the "first -class event" and the first priority of foreign policy to "fight imperialism" with Russia.Putin promised to help North Korea in space technology.
Lu Jin published a comment article in Washington Think Tank on September 26 this year and the website "38 degrees north latitude" (38 North) monitoring North Korea.It may become more and more intimate, and may even restore the quasi -alliance relationship during the Cold War.
According to Lu Jin's analysis, it is expected that China and Russia will have some subtle changes in the role of North Korea in the future."China is still the main supplier of North Korea, and Russia has become the main military partner of North Korea. Moscow will be willing to play such a role because it has a bad relationship with the United States, Japan and South Korea, and do not worry about having evil with these three countries."
to form an alliance with the great country to improve the influence
The border blockade for more than three years, coupled with the failure of negotiations with the United States in 2019, makes North Korea isolated than ever before.
Lu Jin pointed out that in February 2019, Kim Jong -un and former US President Trump held a second special gold meeting in Hanoi, Vietnam, but the two parties did not sign any agreement, but later there was no nuclear negotiation.
Lu Jin believes that the Pukin Society in September this year helps North Korea to grasp more initiative in the US -DPRK negotiations, expand North Korea's diplomatic space, and help break the pattern of the US -led Korean Peninsula.He said: "Kim Jong -un didn't want to make people feel that he relied too much on Washington, Beijing or Shouhr."
Nan Chengxu believes that in the context of being isolated by the Western world, North Korea andRussia "came together" logically.The Kim Jong -un government obviously hopes to enhance its influence through an alliance with Russia.This also means that North Korea has abandoned the normalization of relations with the United States that has been promoted in the past 30 years and has entered a new era that has a substantial relationship with Russia."If you get the support of the great power (Russia), there will be more chips when negotiating with the United States."
In addition, North Korea can also be assisted by Russian satellite technology, and Russia will also give some free food or energy supply, which will help consolidate the Kim Jong -un regime.
Why does North Korea choose Russia between China and Russia
Analysis pointed out that although 90%of the foreign economic and trade aids obtained by North Korea came from China, the North Korea and Russia talked about military technical cooperation.
In addition, Beijing has always opposed North Korea's seventh nuclear test, which is in sharp contrast to Moscow's potential weapons and missile protocols in North Korea.
It is believed that North Korea may seek reducing dependence on China by strengthening the relationship between North and Russia.
Nan Chengxu said that China has always had a considerable influence on North Korea, but Pyongyang does not want to rely on Beijing."North Korea hopes to obtain natural gas and crops from Russia, and hopes to obtain Russia's support in satellite technology and nuclear submarine technology, but North Korea cannot obtain such high -tech from China."
For the Puchang Club, Beijing is a low -key response.A spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning said at the time that the visiting of North Korean leaders was a arrangement between the two countries, involving the relationship between North Korea and Russia, and the current development of China -DPRK relations is good.
The comments of the East Asia Daily in South Korea pointed out that the world is paying attention to China's attitude, which is no less concerned about the meeting with Russia leaders.If China helps or default illegal weapons trading between Russia, Beijing's prestige and status will be greatly shaken.
What can Russia get from North Korea
Compared with Russia, North Korea is obviously a party that obtains more practical interests in the Puchang Fair.At a strategic level, Russia's satellite technology cooperation with North Korea is likely to bring technical breakthroughs to Pyongyang.In the long run, Russia's satellite technology support will help improve Pyongyang's intercontinental ballistic missile plan.
As for Russia, which is considered to be the second in the world's military strength, why does the Ukrainian war cause the Russian army to the point where the Russian army is turned to North Korea for help?
Gerard Toal, a professor of international affairs at Virginia Institute of Technology in the United States, analyzed that the Russian and Ukraine War was long -lasting and consumed the Russian army far exceeding Putin's original expectations.
In addition, China has taken neutrality in Russia and Ukraine's conflict, and has not given direct military assistance to Russia.With the stalemate and long -term, Russia's pressure is increasing.Moscow urgently needs weapons, especially bullets and shells, and Pyongyang has sufficient inventory in this regard.
Thor told Lianhe Zaobao: "For Putin, the Ukrainian war has indeed entered a very difficult stage now. Russia's weapons consume a lot on the Ukrainian battlefield.The type of weapon becomes an option. "
Thor believes that South Korea's support for Ukraine in Russia and Ukraine is another factor that prompted Moscow and Pyongyang to strengthen cooperation.
South Korean President Yin Xiyue suddenly visited Kiev in July this year, clearly showing support for Ukraine, and thoroughly stood to the opposite side of Russia.
Although Yin Xiyue's government insisted that it only provided Ukraine with non -fatal military assistance, such as bulletproof vests, helmets and medical supplies, the Wall Street Journal quoted sources as reporters that after Washington asked South Korea to provide support to Ukraine last year, Seoul and Washington reached reached reaching reaching reaching in Washington.The secret agreement was handed over to the United States to Ukraine.
Thor said: "This is obviously irritated by Russia. Russia and North Korea's satellite technology cooperation can be said to be Moscow's revenge on South Korea to support Ukraine."
Kim Jong -un and Putin met that North Korea would "fully support and unconditionally support" Moscow launched the "sacred war" to Ukraine.North Korea is also one of the few countries that recognize Russia's independence of Russia and Lugusk.
The situation on the peninsula is tightly upgraded
North Korea and Russia move closer, the most tense is undoubtedly South Korea.As a large nuclear country, Russia's choice of North Korea as a political military allies will inevitably bring various unclear variables to South Korea.
Experts warn that the alliance of North Korea and Russia may also exacerbate the tension around the Korean Peninsula, allowing North Korea to promote nuclear weapons projects and forcing South Korea and Japan to strengthen their military cooperation with the United States.
After the South Korean government successfully launched the reconnaissance satellite in North Korea, it decided to suspend some of the contents of the 1999 military agreement, and at the same time announced the restoration of surveillance and reconnaissance activities in the military division line.
North Korea threatened to tear up the military agreement the next day and immediately deployed more powerful armed forces and the latest weapons on the North Korean border as a counterattack.North Korea also said that if it is "irreparable conflict" between North Korea and South Korea, the responsibility is completely borne by South Korea.Pyongyang's statement has led to the upgrading of the tension of the peninsula.
South Korea's National Intelligence Institute said that although North Korea has not yet discovered signs of the seventh nuclear test in North Korea, as long as Kim Jong -un was ordered, it could be carried out at any time.
U.S. Secretary of State Brosky warned on November 9 that the military connection between North Korea and Russia "continued to increase and danger", describing North Korea as "the biggest unstable factor."The Kremlin responded that Russia has the right to choose to associate with any country and will not be interfered by the third country.
Although North Korea and Russia have denied any arms agreements, the US and South Korean military and intelligence agencies estimate that Russia has obtained up to 1 million shells and other military equipment since early August this year.
Brinken emphasized: "We are deeply worried about any acts that support North Korea's ballistic missiles, nuclear technology, and space launch capabilities. We are working hard to identify, disclose, and counter this behavior when necessary."
Brinton also called on China to play its influence to restrain North Korea's weapon plan, including "irresponsible" missile launch.
In response to the launch of reconnaissance satellites in North Korea, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that it is hoped that the Korean Peninsula issues will keep calm restraint and adhere to the general direction of political solution.
Some experts believe that if North Korea and Russia go closer and closer, Beijing's influence on the two countries will become smaller and smaller; and the dictator Kim Jong -un, a dictator who has obtained Russian aid in military technology, may become more bold and indispensableIt is predicted that this will definitely cause the concern of Beijing.
