Russian Wagner mercenaries have changed, scholars and analysts of interviewees believe that this may change Ukrainian War The key is whether the Russian army's heart is shaken and whether Putin can quickly calm the rebellion.
Li Mingjiang, an associate professor at Rajernan International Research Institute of Nanyang University of Science and Technology in Singapore, said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that Wagner's mismatch may change the situation of the Russian and Ukraine War.If the Russian leader cannot calm down the rebellion, the Russian defense line may be defeated by the Ukraine in the short term.
The head of the Wagner Group Purig has previously made public speeches many times, trying to pull the Russian Defense Minister and Chief of Staff.Li Mingjiang believes that Pricig may think that these people mislead President Putin, so they want "Qingjun side"; but it is also very likely that Pleigo has greater political ambitions.
Li Mingjiang said: "In any case, this is a very headache for Putin. It may be a factor that changes the situation for the entire Russian and Ukraine War, because his backyard is caught fire." He further said that in order to cope with Ukraine's counterattack, the Russian army must now go all out and be unable to slack off. If he still has to move a large number of soldiers from the regular troops to deal with the Wagner rebels, it will affect the war of Russia and Ukraine."If he (Putin) cannot calm down the mutiny, it will be very beneficial to Ukraine. Then the Russian defense line will be defeated, which may be a fast thing. It is possible for several weeks or one or two months."
/>
How to evolve the loyalty of the Russian security forces into the key
The British Ministry of Defense on Saturday (June 24) said through a military emotional report published by tweets, the dispute with the Russian Ministry of Defense has evolved into a direct confrontation."In the next time, the loyalty of the Russian security forces, especially the National Guard, will be the key to how this crisis has evolved. This is the biggest challenge facing the Russian government in recent years."
The Institute of Military Observation Organization of the U.S. Military Organization issued an analysis report on the same day that the rebellion launched by Porigo was "unlikely to succeed" in order to forcibly replace the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense because Putin would not acquiesce.Occurrence, Wagner also obviously lacks the support of senior Russian officers and military officers.
The report said: "Out of violent means to overthrow loyal ministers such as Glacimov, chief of staff of the Russian Armed Forces, the Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, will cause irreplaceable damage to Putin's power stability.He is also very impossible to accept any armed rebellion. "
But the report also pointed out that Wagner claims to occupy the southern command of the Russian army and "will have a significant impact on the efforts of the Russian army in the Ukrainian war."
Ukraine Deputy Defense Mary said to Ukraine TV that Ukraine has not yet launched a main counterattack, and Wagner's mutiny provides a chance to Kiev.
Scholar: Ukraine may take advantage of the opportunity to counterattack
Think Tank and Consulting Company Solaris Strategies, senior analyst of international affairs, Dr. Mustafa Izzuddin, said in an interview that the Ukrainian army was likely to fight the iron while hot, "but I think they will keep them keepBe cautious, because they do not want their military strategy to be reaction to them. "
He believes that although this mutiny may be conducive to the Ukraine in psychological warfare, the military forces under Putin's leadership are "strong and unshakable."
He said: "Cracks appearing within the Putin government may inspire Ukraine and their allies, and enhance their collective confidence when they try to repel the Russian army ... However, it is not enough to overthrow the leadership of Putin.Government. In fact, Putin vowed to shatter the armed mutiny and even compared it to the Russian civil war that happened in the last century, indicating that he would do his best, and he stifled him in the bud stage before this problem became his real threat."
