Ukrainian war
U.S. Consult Morning Consult Geopolist analysis director Mcmann believes that Biden's decision to ban the import of Russia's imported from the United States is worthy of attention, but in view of European energy to Russia's energyThe dependence is high. If Europe is prohibited from importing Russian oil and natural gas, it is considered realistic.
(London Composite Electric) analysts believe that the U.S. implementing energy embargo on Russia will lead to more Russian crude oil to find buyers and further disrupt the global energy market.However, unless other countries join the ranks of sanctions, the impact on Russia's economy may be limited.
The US President Biden signed an administrative order on Tuesday and announced that it would immediately stop importing oil, liquefied natural gas and coal from Russia, saying that this move will cut off the "aorta" of the Russian economy.At the same time, Britain announced that it gradually stopped importing Russian oil and petroleum products by the end of 2022. The oil industry giant Britain (BP) and Shell (Shell) also stopped buying Russian crude oil and natural gas.
Russia can resold with oil to other markets such as China
Russia sends 7 million to 8 million barrels of crude oil and fuel to Russia every day, accounting for global energy supply7%, the new sanctions exacerbate the chaos in the energy market.According to Goldman Sachs, more than half of Russian oil, which has been out of Hong Kong, is still yet to be sold. If the situation continues, Russian crude oil and petroleum products will reduce 3 million barrels per day.However, Russia can transfer oil to other markets such as China.Bloomberg analysis pointed out that the implementation of energy embargo in the United States and the United States will crack down on Russia as one of the world's largest oil and gas production countries, but unless other countries follow up, the impact on the Russian economy may not be great.
Morning Consult's geopolitical risk analysis director Mcmann Mcmann said: "Bayon's decision to ban the US imports from importing Russian oil is worthy of attention, but in view of Europe's high dependence on Russia, if Europe is banned from importing Russia from imports from Russia, Russia is prohibited from importing Russia from imports from Russia.Petroleum and natural gas can be regarded as moving. "
US Minister of Energy Grandhham said that the United States will not pressure allies to prohibit imported Russian oil and are actively negotiating with allies to actively release additional release of oil reserves.Essence
Last year, Russian crude oil accounted for only about 3%of the imports of US crude oil, and the proportion of other refined oils accounted for 8%.In contrast, 27%of European imported crude oil from Europe came from Russia in 2019.
Although the EU did not implement energy for Russia, it plans to end its dependence on Russia's natural gas supply by 2030.Germany Foreign Minister Berbak said on Tuesday that Germany did not prohibit the import of Russian oil to defend that this would lead to chaos in Germany, which would be a victory for the Kremlin.
Internal oil prices in the United States rose on Tuesday's new high
Biden admitted that the United States will pay the price for this sanctions, and domestic gasoline prices will continue to rise.Increase the cost of life.He promised to minimize the impact on the people, and warned oil and gas companies not to take the opportunity to drive up the price.
On Tuesday, the average US gasoline price rose to $ 4.173 per gallon, refreshing the highest record since July 2008.
The Wall Street Journal pointed out that rising gasoline prices will increase the production cost of the industry and increase inflation pressure.Nevertheless, the polls show that 80 % of the United States supports the prohibition of imported Russian energy.
Analysts of the consulting company Rystad Energy believe that energy embargo may push global oil prices to $ 200 per barrel.The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was $ 127.98 per barrel on Tuesday, up 3.9%. The settlement price of US crude oil futures was $ 123.70 per barrel, an increase of 3.60%.
Kaitou macro market economists pointed out that oil and gas prices will depend on the progress of Russia and Ukraine's conflict and the degree of rupture of Russia and Western economic relations;Keep a high position for a longer period of time.
Due to the rapid rise in fuel prices, some US airlines have begun to reduce flights, making the aviation industry's hope of getting rid of the low ebb recovery this year.
In order to curb the rise in oil prices, the US government promises to release 90 million barrels of strategic oil reserves in this fiscal year, and it will also increase domestic oil and gas output.US crude oil production is expected to hit a new high next year.
The Vice President of the World Bank Gill said on Tuesday that the continuous high oil prices caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine may cause the growth of China, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey to reduce the growth of economies in the development of economies.Essence
