One month before the vote day of the US election, the elections between Trump and Kamara Harris were as tragic as a fight without gloves.

The battle to compete in the White House seems to still fall into a deadlock at the level of the United States and states, because the final result will be a slightly gap -every new voter and every voter who is still swaying may become a knockoutThe key factor of the opponent.

"In a super close election campaign, almost five or five voters on both sides were opened. At this time, the difference between one or two percentage points will be decisive."David Greenberg said.

Two -party strategic experts focus on how to win key marginal voters, but the election may be separated from their control, and unexpected changes will subvert the election campaign in the last few weeks.

The political shock wave of election campaigns has lasted for a year.A candidate survived in the two attempted assassinations and was charged with crime; the current president Biden withdrew from the competition and instead supported the younger vice president to participate in the election.

Recall that Trump's entered the Hollywood video door and Hillary Clinton's email door in 2016. Once the same amazing incident occur in October, once there is a bad news cycle or a wrong step, the candidate will be veryIt is difficult to restore the situation or restart.

Just last week, these events that could develop into a political storm had appeared below.

The political influence of Hurricane "Helenni"

The first political storm may originate from a real storm.Hurricane "Helennie" swept two key election battlefield last week, Georgia and North Carolina.Because the attention of the above two states was attracted by the fierce election campaign, a humanitarian disaster that had killed 200 people had become a political topic.

Camara Harris promised to provide local long -term assistance to Georgia last week.She also visited the disaster area in North Carolina on Saturday.

"We have been here for a long time," she said in Georgia.

At the same time, the above two places are regarded as the state that Trump must fight for, and the polls also show that the two are equivalent here.When visiting Georgia, Trump said that the emergency rescue funds of Americans were lost because money was used on immigrants.In fact, these two types of projects come from different budgets. President Bayeng accused Republicans accusing Republicans' response in disaster relief funds to spread the "bold lie".

When the disaster comes, it is difficult for the government to satisfy everyone.Once Trump's attack is on the ground, voters' dissatisfaction with post -disaster recovery measures may have a potential impact on the voting results of these two key states.

The warming in the Middle East

Thousands of miles away from the affected area of ​​the United States, a crisis of artificial manufacturing is continuing to affect US politics.As Israel fought against the Albon in southern Lebanon, Iran launched nearly 200 missiles to Israel last week. The Gaza War faced the danger of a comprehensive conflict in the region.

Although Kamara Harris focuses on shaping the image of the transformer, her US -Israeli policy has not opened away from the current government.

The hope of achieving Gaza ceasefire before the US election seems to be shattered. The United States is now trying to ensure that Israel's inevitable counterattack against Iran should not lead to a comprehensive war.

But on Thursday night, Biden did not confirm this again.

"I don't think a comprehensive war will happen," he said, "I think this can be avoided, but there are still many things that need to be done."

Even if American voters usually do not directly consider the factors of foreign policy when they vote, the Middle East War is affecting the Democratic Party.

Kamara Harris promised to continue to provide weapons to Israel, which caused trouble for the two Democratic Party's important ticket warehouses: the American Arabs in Michigan, Michigan, and young voters on campus.Battle demonstrations may reproduce.

The Middle East conflict has caused concerns about daily expenses.Biden mentioned that Israel might crack down on Iranian refinery, which caused oil prices to rise by 5%immediately on Thursday.

If one thing can be particularly sensitive to American consumers, it is oil price.

The surprise of the Democratic Party

The polls from all levels continue to show that the economy is the number one issue that American voters are concerned about.Kamara Harris and the Democratic Party received good news last Friday. The latest employment data shows that in recent months, the job has grown strongly, and the unemployment rate has dropped to 4.1%.

Greenberg believes that voters' concerns about the economy are not limited to job positions.

"When people complain about the economy, they really complain about a specific area of ​​long -term decline -a de -industrial community located in the countryside," he said, "This is a scarred when the economic situation is good.Area.

During most campaign periods, when asked who did better in the economy, Trump received a better evaluation than Kamara Harris.However, there are also signs that this advantage is not unchanged. For example, the polls of the Swing State in the Cook's political report show that the two candidates are equivalent to the issue of inflation.

For the Democratic Party, a potential economic trap has been eliminated last week -the dock workers' strikes that have closed for the first time in the East Coast of the United States and the Gulf of Mexico for the first time in 50 years.The two parties agreed to return to the negotiating table in January, and the dock had resumed work.If this strike continues, it will disturb the supply chain in a few weeks before the election and push up the price of consumer goods.

At the same time, the number of illegal crossing of the US -Mexico border has returned to the level before the epidemic. In December last year, the number set a record of 249741.

Although many American cities can still feel this kind of behavior crossing the border, the crisis of this crisis is fading.

Congress Mountain riots return to vision

Although many news last week may cause trouble to Kamara Harris and the Democratic Party, Trump is not smooth all the way.

During the riots of Congress on January 6, 2021, his behavior became the focus again last Wednesday.Jack Smith, a special adviser to the US Department of Justice, released a document that lists evidence that is not conducive to Trump, pointing out that he tried to overthrow the results of the last election.

This document believes that Trump should not enjoy the presidential judicial exemption, and disclose the details of Trump's words and deeds that leads his supporters to launch riots.

The polls of the United States CNN (CNN) show that in the case of "defending democracy", voters' support for Camara Harris and Trump is 47%and 40%, respectively.Therefore, any re -concern for Trump's chaos in the last few weeks may add points to the Democratic Party.

Unknown factor

The word "October" has become a specific political vocabulary in the United States for nearly 50 years.The candidate will worry about news or crises that make their candidates deviate from the party's claims and change the election trajectory.

Even the smallest wave of public opinion, there may be the belonging of the White House during the election year of the gap with only tens of thousands of votes.

Greenberg said that the vote in November was becoming exciting.

He said: "No matter which party you are loyal and which party you are in love with, I can imagine the extremely significant significance it contains."