Illustration/Brendan McDermid

S & P Global Rating in a report on Monday warned that due to the increase in debt and the rise in loan costs, countries may have more frequent foreign currency debt defaults than in the past. In the past ten years, the overall credit rating of global sovereign countries has also declined.

As the world is getting rid of a round of punitive sovereign debt defaults, the investigation result of the report is a harsh warning -although the wealthy debt country said earlier this year, the risk of dragging the global debt crisis began to fade.

Quot; With the drying of financing channels and the acceleration of capital escape, these factors have quickly brought liquidity challenges.Quot; Report saying, "In many cases, this constitutes a critical point for liquidity and ability to limit the problem to the government."

The new crown epidemic in 2020 puts pressure on the state's finances, and there are seven times that the national foreign currency debt defaults-Belize, Zambia, Ecuador, Argentina, Lebanon, and Surinan twice. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, food and fuel prices soared, which brought greater pressure on countries. In 2022 and 2023, eight national defaults, including Ukraine and Russia. The total defaults since 2020 accounted for more than one -third of the 45 sovereign foreign currency debt since 2000.

S & P global rating analyzes the breach of contract in the past 20 years, and it is found that developing countries now rely more on government loans to ensure foreign capital inflows.However, when this dependence and unpredictable policies, the central bank lacks independence and shallow local capital markets, the debt repayment problem often follows.

Increased public debt and fiscal imbalances prompted capital to flee. In turn, it exacerbated the pressure of international revenue and expenditure, exhausted foreign exchange reserves, and finally cut off the borrowing ability-this is basically a doom spiral that leads to breach of contract.

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Report also warned that compared with the 1980s, the current debt restructuring takes longer, which will bring serious consequences.

Quot; We also found that long -term macroeconomic consequences are more serious on sovereign countries that have continued to default for many years, increasing the possibility of further breach of contract, Quot; the report said.

The interest expenditure of interest expenses in the first year before the breach of contract is often close to or even more than 20%of government revenue. These countries usually fall into recession. At the same time, the inflation rate rises to dual digits, making the lives of the local people more difficult.

Quot; sovereign defaults on economic growth, inflation, exchange rates, and sovereign national financial departments have a significant impact, quot; report said.