Taiwan Lai Qingde throwing "Double Ten" speeches "After the discussion of the People's Republic of China without the right to represent Taiwan ", the outside world observed when mainland China would launch a military exercise against Taiwan, and the boots landed four days later.

The Eastern theater of the Mainland PLA announced in the early morning that the troops such as the army, navy, air force, and Rocket Army of the theater, and launched the "United Elite-20124B Exercise" in the Taiwan Strait, northern and southern Taiwan, and eastern parts to focusIt is necessary for Hong Kong to seal control, fight against land and land, and seize comprehensive rights, and test the joint combat capabilities.

The military exercise of this enclosure not only entered Taiwan's distance is getting closer, but also approached the live atmosphere of combat. There were even a few "first": Liaoning ship aircraft carrier formation participated in the military exercise for the first time; the marine police took the first round around Taiwan.Implement law enforcement inspections around the waters around Taiwan; the mainland marked the location of the six ports such as Taipei, Keelung, Kaohsiung and Taitung in the military exercise schematic diagram.

Military exercises undoubtedly release a clear signal: Once the PLA is really playing, it will block the port of the six major foreign countries in Taiwan; dispatch the aircraft carrier to occupy the east of Taiwan's throat, block the delivery of external forces such as the United StatesWill play the role of the second navy.

The PLA selected the exercise when the sky was still dark in the morning, and announced the end of the military exercise on the same day. I believe it is also a psychological war: when the people in Taiwan are still asleep, the war has begun.Go to Taiwan.

This is the military exercise of Taiwan again since Lai Qingde's inauguration speeches in Beijing in May this year. Obviously, he still spoke at Lai Qingde.

The WeChat public account of CCTV "Yuyuan Tan Tian", a subsidiary of CCTV, wrote the same day and expressed strong dissatisfaction with Lai Qingde's double ten speech.

The article pointed out that foreign media said that Lai Qingde's speech became "mild" to the narrative of cross -strait relations, and it was said that such arguments were not only adopted by Taiwanese media, but also "hidden dangerous narratives" behind them, that is, when Taiwan independence is divided into divisionThe molecules are disguised, and then the mainland can no longer use exercises to deter these people, otherwise it will destroy the status quo on both sides of the strait.

The article quotes unnamed professionals, and the essence of Lai Qingde's speech further strengthens the theory of the two countries, and states that he "completely abandon the across the Taiwan Strait and talk to the mainland with the so -called" national "language."

From the perspective of Beijing, it is Lai Qingde's Taiwan independence speech provoked first, destroying the status quo on both sides of the strait.From the perspective of Taiwan and Washington, the PLA army was provoked to try to change the status quo.Who provokes first?This seems to have a chicken or egg first, and there is no solution.

The most suspicious situation of the Taiwan Strait situation is that the world is unwilling to see the war of the Taiwan Strait. The United States has expressed serious concerns and called on Beijing to restrain. The European Union also called for restraint.However, the words and deeds and reactions on both sides of the strait have repeatedly pushed the tension and pushed the Taiwan Strait to the sea of ​​fire.

After 2024, will there be a C or D version?Even if there are no longer this year, there will be exercises such as A and B in 2025 next year.Will one day wipe the gun and get angry?Next time, will the mainland maritime police involved in the military exercise will try to check in Taiwan's civil fishing vessels and merchant ships?How does Taiwan respond?

When the tension of the Taiwan Strait rises to the apex, what will the ending?

The root cause of the tragedy of the Taiwan Strait is that both sides of the strait believe that the other party provokes first, and he is standing on the right side, and he is unwilling to step on the brake.Once the war of war detonation caused an indescribable condition, when the two sides regret why the two sides regret why many words and less moves?

Of course, the two sides of the strait are currently not the edge of the frequency war. It is a boiling point where the war is touched, and there is still a space to fluctuate.

Lai Qingde's view of Taiwan independence is obvious, but the discussion of Taiwan independence awareness is more complete and direct than Cai Yingwen."The People's Republic of China has no right to represent Taiwan" and "the Republic of China has taken root in the golden horse in Taiwan", clearly cut cross -strait relations and history. Without the word "independence", it fully expresses the meaning of "two countries".However, Lai Qingde, like the president of Taiwan Green Camp, will not announce the legal Taiwan independence as long as he is normal.

Beijing cannot tolerate any form of Taiwan independence, but the central task of the Communist Party of China is to promote the realization of Chinese -style modernization, and to comprehensively promote the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" with Chinese -style modernization. Any war or turmoil will only disrupt this process.If you do not grasp the victory when you can get involved in the United States and have not yet prepared to take over Taiwan, Beijing to maintain a strategic determination is more important than any time.

The United States has been exhausted on the two fronts of Russia and the Middle East, and there are many domestic problems, and they will not want to get involved in one more war.Once Taiwan can't keep it, not only has the United States not played by Taiwan since then, the first island chain drops less in Taiwan, and its entire Asia -Pacific strategic framework will also fall down.

Therefore, continue to maintain the status quo, in line with the interests of all parties.Although the PLA showed her muscles, it also remained restrained.

According to the Taiwan Ministry of National Defense, a total of 125 military aircraft were found to be the highest in a single day, and 90 of them entered the Taiwan -changing area.

However, mainland military aircraft and warships have not passed the 24 neighboring area of ​​Taiwan, and the mainland has not announced any real bombs exercise or banned area, and Taiwan has not found any signs of missile launch.Shortly after the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States House in 2022, the missile launched by the PLA traveled over Taiwan.Taiwan stocks are not affected by the exercise today, and the weighted index closed up the market by 0.32%.

Beijing has passed the official media that the actual combat exercise in Taiwan is daily, and the military exercise is a sharp sword on the head of "hanging in the Taiwan independence division".

I believe this will not stay orally.When the red and green cannot sit down and talk, both sides think that when the other party tries to change the status quo first, "you speak and our military exercise" becomes an interactive model.If the upgrade of the daily military exercise step by step will make people extremely disturbed, but it may also become a "status quo" of decreased deterrence because it is too daily, provided that it must not wipe the gun and go to fire.