US election to enter the countdown for a few months.Yes, analyze the impact of this election on the situation of the Taiwan Strait.Participating scholars analyzed that "the focus of scaring and intervention" will be the most rational policy choice when democratic and Republican parties should deal with the Taiwan Strait.
The US presidential election will be held on November 5th, and the election of democracy and Republican parties will be paid to the world, which will pay great attention to the world.The Taiwan Politburo and the Communist Party of China and the Communist Party of China, the Journal of Magazine, Outlook and Exploration of Taiwan Intelligence Institutions, and other issues of Taiwan Intelligence Institutions were co -organized to invite experts and scholars to discuss "US elections on the influence of cross -strait relations and regional security.
Wu Chonghan, director of the Department of Foreign Affairs of Zhengda University, mentioned in the meeting that if Trump again, the former trade representativeThe "American Protectionist School" headed by Robert Lighthizer should be restored, and the most important job realizing this claim is tariff .
He believes that this can explain why the high tariff policy is constantly taken out as a trade weapon during the Trump campaign, and it is even recommended to impose a 10%tariff on all Chinese goods until the US -China trade reaches the US -China trade reaches the reach of the US -China trade.Balance.
Wu Chonghan studied and judged that Trump's future trade policy in the United States and China still takes "U.S. Priority" as the main spirit, and through bilateral negotiations, forcing the RMB to appreciate, narrowing the US trade deficit, and not resorting to win -winInstead, the United States won alone.
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Professor Xue Jianwu, a professor at the Institute of East Asia, also believes that once Trump came to power, the United States may be unavoidable to China's economic pressure.However, he emphasized that whether the United States and other allies can maintain a good cooperative relationship will be the key to determining how much damage China will suffer.
If Harris was elected, Wu Chonghan believes that her Chinese policy will follow the Bayeng government .The Taiwan Strait is stable and encouraged the two sides of the Taiwan Strait to resolve disputes in a peaceful way."Strategic Blog" will still be the most important strategic options between the United States in the future of the Taiwan Strait, but it will still inform Mainland China with intimidation. If unilaterally use force to solve the Taiwan issue, the cost will be very high.
Xue Jianwu said that no matter which party winning the US presidential election, competition with China will be the consensus between the two parties; on the Taiwan Strait's security issues, "mainly to disqualize and intervene" will also be the two parties.The most rational policy choice.
But Wu Chonghan reminded that this may force China to take tougher measures in military and diplomacy to deal with the challenges of the United States, thereby intensifying the confrontation between the United States and China on the Taiwan Strait.
The possible response to the results of Beijing's elections in the United States, Xue Jianwu further judged that whether it was in the face of negotiation space, the Trump administration, or the cooperation with allies, or cooperating with allies in the "tactical level", it was more closely, or cooperated with allies.The Harris government, which has a tendency to fight at the "strategic level" to declare interests, clear the bottom line, emphasizes cooperation, does not take the initiative to cause conflicts, etc., all are the general direction of China to deal with the United States.
He emphasized that China's various preparations for the United States for a long time are long -term, not only in response to the result of the presidential election of the United States.With China ’s long -term operation of developing countries and the storage of important combat supplies in recent years, China has already made preparations for response.
In comparison, Xue Jianwu believes that the US strategy for China is relatively more focused on short -term election considerations, especially under the situation of Trump's insistence on the White House.There are strong measures.
In terms of the US science and technology competition policy in the United States, Wu Chonghan has studied that Harris should still adopt an alliance including internal technology subsidies and external chips. The purpose is to compete with Beijing in all aspects.It will still be quite obvious.Key technical control will be one of the strategic options in the U.S. in the scientific and technological war.
