Taiwan Lai Qingde has repeatedly emphasized that "the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China are not affiliated with each other", which has caused strong dissatisfaction in Beijing. Ma Kaishuo, the director of the Public College of the School of Public Policy of the National University of Singapore, said that geopolitics said that geopolitics said that geographical politicsIt is cruel. If Taiwan promotes Taiwan independence, not only will it not obtain support for most countries, but I am afraid that it will face a painful price.
Taiwan Li Guoding Technology Development Foundation, Changfeng Foundation and Southeast Asian Influence Alliance, Wednesday (September 11) held the "2024 Geed Political Summit Forum" in Taipei. Ma Kaishuo was invitedA discussion with Taiwanese experts and scholars.
For the deterioration of Sino-US relations after the US election, Ma Kaishuo analyzes, Whether Harris or Trump is elected , competition between China and the United States will continue because it is driven by structural power.
But he admits that the style of the two's reaction to the competition between China and the United States will be significantly different in many important aspects.Therefore, for China, "
Ma Kaishuo pointed out that Trump is unstable, it is not easy to predict, and does not believe in allies. It may make the current allies in the United States transfer to cooperate with mainland China. Taiwan has to pay more at the price to obtain US support.In addition, Trump is a businessman who is willing to trade, and is even willing to trade with any conditions. Taiwan is likely to be sacrificed in the transaction as a pawn in China and the United States.
He asserted that if Trump is willing to accept, Trump will sacrifice Taiwan without hesitation.
But Ma Kaishuo also mentioned that Pompeo, who was once the Secretary of State of the Trump administration, was called on the United States to recognize Taiwan as an independent country when he went to Taiwan after he stepped down.Therefore, for Beijing, if Trump came to the stage to admit that Taiwan is an independent country, this will mean war.
As for Harris, Ma Kaishuo believes that if she is elected president, she will definitely continue the Bayeng government's policy direction, including continuous establishment of the Alliance network, and continuous pressure on Russia in the Russian and Ukraine War, which is very easy to predict.
At the end of his speech, he reminded Taiwan that he should not promote Taiwan independence. "Under any circumstances, this is dangerous, especially at this moment."
Ma Kaishuo said that as a diplomat who has been a ambassador for more than 10 years in the United Nations, he is very clear about the cruelty and reality of geopolitics.Once Taiwan chooses Taiwan independence, the international community is likely to move closer to mainland China. Taiwan's international activity space will be greatly restricted, and the cost will be very painful.
Ma Kaishuo particularly emphasized that as a friend, he made suggestions on Taiwan.
Su Qi, a Taiwanese scholar who had served as the Secretary -General of the National Security Conference within his appointment of the Ma Ying -jeou government, mentioned in the forum that when there was no dialogue on both sides of the strait, Taiwan may become a trigger for China and the United States. .
He believes that there are many controversies between China and the United States, including the South China Sea, trade, technology, etc., but as long as there is no Taiwan issue, there will be no threat of war.Therefore, if the competition between China and the United States is going to be risky, /A>.
As for how to achieve it, Su Qi said that although he personally tends to cross -strait dialogue, this is currently dead; letting China and the United States have a strategic dialogue is the only way to avoid Taiwan being by Wu Tong.Even though both parties are not ready at present, at least the door to communicate is open.If these two channels are not available, they may finally take the step of "Wu Tong".
