The Taiwan election campaign has entered the last three weeks, and all major parties have failed to establish a seat in the court.Experts interviewed analyzed that if the Green Camp continues to be in power, it is likely to face a large situation in the small field, which will contain sensitive policies such as both sides of the strait; if the party rotates and the blue camp becomes the largest party in Congress, the cross -strait negotiation process may be promoted.
Taiwan and legislators elections will vote on January 13 next year. Recently, polls show that the blue camp has gradually followed the presidential election and the legislator election has maintained a stable lead.
The Taiwan Legislative Yuan has a total of 113 legislators. A single political party needs to get 57 seats in order to achieve more than half of it.The "Ruthless and Real Future Forecast" polls on the poll website on December 17 showed that the Kuomintang was expected to win 56 seats, which was close to half of the seats;There are two seats.
The polls published on Tuesday (December 19) of the United Daily show that the Kuomintang received 29%of the support in regional legislators, which is higher than the DPP of 23%, and the people's party is at 9%at the bottom;In part of the district legislators, the Kuomintang also won five percentage points with a 31%support of the DPP, and the support of the people's parties for no division to maintain 16%.
The Kuomintang Party Chairman Zhu Lilun said in an interview on December 18 that about 15 constituencies have tight elections. If they can be selected smoothly, they can even work hard to achieve more than half alone.According to comprehensive Taiwan media reports, the 15 fierce battle constituency identified by the Blue Camp should be two seats in Taipei, three seats in New Taipei City, two seats in Taoyuan City, two seats in Taichung City, two seats in Kaohsiung City, Hsinchu City and Taitung County, as well as PingdiThe aborigines of the mountains are one seat.
In the late November of the Democratic Progressive Party, in late November, when the legislator election was evaluated to the Taiwan media, it also mentioned that about 10 to 15 regional legislators were in a fierce battle.
Public opinion website TPOC Taiwan Topics Research Center passed the big data analysis in early December, and invested 10 DPP that it was more likely to fall.There are two seats in the city, a seat in Nantou County, a seat in Kaohsiung City, a seat in Taitung County, and a seat in Pingtung County.
Although analysis generally believes that cross -strait issues have not played a role in this election campaign, but the Kuomintang presidential candidate Hou Youyi and the public party presidential candidate Ke Wenzhe have thrown out the candidate to promote cross -strait service trade agreements and cargo trade agreements to re -talkEssenceThis means that if a party rotation occurs, the Legislative Yuan will play the role of cross -strait negotiation review at that time, and the composition of party seats will also become a key variable.
Shen Youzhong, a professor at the Department of Political Science, Taiwan Donghai University, analyzed in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that if political parties rotate in Taiwan and the Kuomintang also won the majority of the Legislative Yuan, it is foreseeable that the two sides of the strait will be resumed.Fun, but also depends on the content and results of the specific discussion.
He said: "If the Kuomintang is on the two sides of the interview, the issues of one country, two systems or one country, two systems are also put on the negotiating table, and the supervision of Congress (Legislative Yuan) is avoided, even regardless of the DPP or other small parties.Opposition, of course, there will still be the possibility of going to the streets. "
However, Shen Youzhong's judgment, from the current opinion of polls, the probability of the DPP presidential candidate Lai Qingde's victory is slightly greater; but in the Legislative Yuan, it is likely to face the multi -party parties but half of the heads of the court.
He believes that in the case of half a party, if the DPP is still the largest party, it means to master more ability to formulate policies and distribution budgets.There will be more dominance.However, if the Kuomintang becomes the largest party of the Legislative Yuan, Lai Qingde's cabinet may put more effort on the internal affairs, and use more personnel without party membership or financial background to serve as a member of the cabinet in exchange for the support of the legislature to appoint personnel.
In addition, the people of the third forces are regarded as the third forces. Although they cannot integrate with the Blue Camp on the presidential candidate, they still have cooperation in the legislator election.
In regional legislators, the Kuomintang still maintains three constituencies to court the people's party. The candidate of the people's party legislators Cai Qiru, a election district, is regarded as a "blue and white demonstration zone".Taichung Mayor Lu Xiuyan and former Kaohsiung Mayor South Korea Yu, represented the Kuomintang on behalf of the Kuomintang in mid -December.
Chen Luhui, director of the Department of Political Science, Taiwan Politburo attended a symposium in early December, and judged that the Kuomintang may throw out the cabinet with the Ke Wenzhe group, and to a certain extent, he will give the people party in a not -regional legislators.Rotating for the appeal, he called on the people's party branch to vote for President's vote to Hou Youyi.
But he believes that Ke Wenzhe's willingness to cooperate with this way is not yet to have the effect of abandonment in the end. It remains to be observed.
Shen Youzhong said in an interview that although there were many people's attacks on the DPP during the election campaign, after the real entry of the Legislative Yuan, the people's party may cooperate with the blue and green camps according to different topics.He believes that under the premise of blue and green, the people's party will become the key to the Legislative Yuan.
However, Xu Qiaoxin, a candidate for legislators in Nantongshan and Xinyi District, who is regarded as the new generation of the Kuomintang, said in an interview with this newspaper that the Kuomintang certainly hopes to unite all the power that can be united, but the focus is still on the current focus on the focus on the focus on the focus on the focus, but it still focuses on the focus on the focus on the focus on the focus.Each constituency is selected well enough, so that the Kuomintang can have a chance to be more than half of them.
In addition, four constituencies this time have not nominated for candidates for legislators.In addition to Zhao Zhengyu, who continued to court the sixth constituency in Taoyuan City, and had a long -term arduous constituency in Kinmen County, but also did not nominate candidates, this time he also courtesy the Social Democratic Party Taipei City Councilor Miao Boya, as well as the party -free Miaoli County.Councilor Zeng Yanxue.
However, there are many opinions that the lines of the three non -civilians and the DPP are not much different from the DPP. It is not surprising that it will not be surprised to join the Democratic Progressive Party. I am afraid that it will not play the role of the third forces.
But Miao Boya emphasized in an interview that during the five years when he had served as a city councilor in the Taipei City Council, he had always advocated that rationally questioning politics and rational supervision, which could stand the test.Therefore, even if the DPP is governed, she enters the Legislative Yuan to support policies that think it is worthy of support.
