The countdown to the election campaign in Taiwan, the blue -green showdown situation is becoming clearer. The middle voters will control the situation. Memorial and internal affairs issues will make the people feel the most.The DPP's eight -year governance burdens brewing the party's rotation, but in the opposition of the wild party insufficient combat power and the integration of frustration, the people's hearts that have changed their minds have continued to burn, but they have not boiled.Lianhe Zaobao invites experts and voters to talk about key issues that affect votes, blue -green and white policy beef, and prediction of election.
High -housing prices, rampant scams, flooding of firearms and drugs, and suspected corruption are suspected ... These people's livelihood issues have accumulated in Taiwan in recent years.The people generally feel helpless and weak. The people's hearts are burning. The political parties of the country have their own offensive and defensive. However, there is still a big question for whether this shareholder's resentment can promote the rotation of the party.
Taiwan will hold the presidential and legislators elections on January 13, 2024. The presidential election will show the blue -green showdown and the old Sanbaiying facing the abandonment situation.The Democratic Progressive Party of Green Camp "Lai Xiao Bao" (Lai Qingde and Xiao Meiqin) maintained a fragile leader in various polls.The people's party "Ke Yingbing" (Ke Wenzhe and Wu Xinying) and lag behind.
According to the analysis of polls, about 90%of the supporters of blue -green and white hardcores have returned to the team. The gap between the winning and losses may be less than 1 million votes or 7%. The middle voters who have not decided to vote will be left and right.
The middle voters refer to those who do not have a specific party tendency, mainly young people and rational voters, as well as light blue or light green voters.Generally, it is estimated that about 19.5 million Taiwanese voters are estimated. If the above 74.9%voting rate is calculated, there are about 5.84 million voters in the middle.
Since the start of the election campaign, the blue -green and white three parties have been recruited for "war and peace" and "democracy and dictatorship".The middle voters began to focus on the performance of the DPP within the eight years of the DPP. They also paid attention to the policy beef from the blue -green and white three parties. In particular, they pay particular attention to who can improve the people's most personal low -paying and high house prices, scams, and young childization issues.
Let's talk about the people's most low salary and high house prices.Although the Taiwan economy has performed well in recent years, it is mainly supported by the semiconductor industry and the capital and communications industry. The salary growth of the workers has grown slowly, and it cannot catch up with house prices.
According to the data of the Ministry of Labor of Taiwan, the starting salary of college graduates is 30,000 yuan (NT $, the same, about S $ 1319).Compared with the information of the Taipei Municipal Bureau, the average house price in Taipei is 739,000 yuan per ping (one ping is equal to 3.3 square meters). Based on 20 pings, the house price is 14.78 million yuan.The PRICE-TO-Income Ratio (also said that the price income ratio) is 15.52, that is, if the citizens want to buy a house, they must not eat or drink for 15 and a half years.Compared with the price ratio of the housing price of Singapore's HDB, the private house is 15.3.
The minimum wage method Three reads through the "7 Years of Lying in the Legislative Yuan"
The DPP government has felt the complaints of the people. The Legislative Yuan passed the minimum wage method on December 12, which passed the minimum wage method, and increased from the existing basic salary by 4%to 27,470 yuan.This is the political opinion proposed by Tsai Ing -wen in Taiwan in 2016. It is now criticized by the opposition party to "lying in the Legislative Yuan for seven years" and rushed to go to the road before he stepped down.
However, house prices in Taiwan are still high, and the dream of buying a house is out of reach, and even the young people are dare not marry or dare to give birth.According to the statistics of the Taiwan Ministry of the Interior of the Taiwan Ministry of the Interior, Taiwan last year for three consecutive years, "life is better than death", the number of newborn children was 139,000 innovative lows, the number of deaths of 207,000 innovative highs, and the trend of decorative children impacted all levels of society.
The rampant fraud also made the people in Taiwan deeply disgusted. Last year, various types of fraud have soared to 29,000. The public reported that the case lost 6.96 billion yuan, and double rewritten high.Some surveys have shown that only 6%of Taiwanese have never received fraud information.
In addition, Taiwan's shooting is frequently passed down and the firearms are flooded. In 2021, 100 shootings occurred, and it fell to 85 in 2022. In the two years, the average of people fired every 3.95 days. Public security was worrying.
The 23 -year -old master student Xiao Jing (pseudonym) said in an interview with Lianhe Morning Post that as the first investment family, he originally hoped that Taiwan would choose a white power beyond blue and green, but inspected Ke Wenzhe in the blue and white "breakup"With repeated attitude, he was disappointed and embarrassed, and now he considers the votes to blue or green.
Xiaojing agrees with the Cross -Strait and international routes of the DPP, but it is believed that the green camp "compares supervision and governance is not going on"; I am interested in the first -term house purchase plan proposed by the Kuomintang, but I also hope that the Kuomintang presidential candidate candidateLet's make it clear about "the 1992 consensus against one country, two systems", or let the blue camp be governed.
21 -year -old college student Xiao Wen (pseudonym) was faked by the fraud group staff, and instructed him to enter the code online on the grounds that his account was hacked, and cheated him for nearly 30,000 yuan to work.He believes that the government is inadequate, hoping that the president will show the courage in the future and effectively disintegrate the criminal organization.
Xiaowen has not decided to vote. When talking about the perception of blue -green and white candidates, he believes that Ke Wenzhe's style is very fresh and refined, but he does not appreciate him and does not respect others. Lai Xiao's experience gives him a good impression.However, he was also worried that the lack of exchanges between the two sides of the strait in the future and Taiwan were going to atresia; he was sure that Hou Youyi's public security ability, but he believed that the Kuomintang was too old and old, and the supervision power was too weak, and he lacked attractiveness to young people.
Analysis: Many issues of blue -green duel fade
Wu Zijia, In response to how the internal affairs issues affect the election, Wu Zijia, a commentator of the current political commentator and the chairman of the Meilimao Electronics News, pointed out to this newspaper that under blue and green duel, many issues faded down, "just look at the color and don't ask right or wrong" . The ruling party did not accept criticism and had poor combat power in the wild party, and the middle voters turned to wait and see.
However, after all, over half of the people want the party to rotate, Wu Zijia evaluates at the end of the election campaign. Ke Wenzhe, who is the third child, may be a king and "burn himself to illuminate Hou Youyi"; plus the blue camp, once the founder of Hon Hai Group persuades Hon Hai GroupGuo Taiming is upright, and the blue camp is expected to reverse the victory.
Associate Professor Du Shengcong, director of the Department of Radio and Television, Ming Chuan University, analyzed that the Kuomintang faced the disadvantage of the structure of the structure in the section of the supporters of middle -aged and elderly supporters, lack of youth votes and resources;The dual -biting sense of "Green Energy, You can't", the contemptation attitude revealed in the process of grabbing the right to speak, challenged the simple nature of the Taiwanese "gentle and respectful and frugal", so that dissatisfaction was burned among most voters in silence.
Du Shengcong evaluates that the DPP has a high chance of winning, but in the face of unprecedentedly united Kuomintang, and voters may drive themselves, concentrated voting to realize the real blue and white combination, which cannot rule out that the Kuomintang still has the opportunity to overtake against the trend.
Hong Qichang, veteran of the Democratic Progressive Party and former chairman of the Sea Foundation, believes that the consequences of Lai Qingde took over the party's chairman to deal with various negative issues, so about 40 % of the polls support.
The DPP veteran Hong Qichang was worried about the "governing pride" in the young generation
He is more worried about the "governance pride" of the DPP ’s youthful generations. In the election campaign, he lighted the enemy and ignored the voter's perception during governance.He said that the government should work harder to respond to the needs of public opinion, update the idle public land, and combine railway systems and housing policies to allow young people to live and work in peace.
On the goal of the campaign, the Kuomintang Hou Kang picked up the dilemma of lack of votes and the southern part of the south, and seeking breakthroughs in a combination of each other, causing a great threat to the ruling party.From December 14th, Hou Youyi started driving for 19 days to drive the street to worship the street (referred to as the car sweep), of which the ticket was expanded in the central and southern parts for 14 days.Zhao Shaokang consolidated the northern votes, locked young voters, and conducted campus dialogue, interviewed by the program, and a talk show.The two will meet at the 15 large -scale momentum before the election.
Hong Qichang evaluated that in the face of the blue camp full of crisis, the winning streak was unpredictable.He said that the advantage of the Green Camp is that the deputy Miqin and Lai Qingde have a complementary role, which can inspire young voters' favor for the DPP.The key to regime.
Blue, green and white each end policy beef
In order to win the election, blue -green and white launched policy beef, responding to the voices of public opinion hoping to change.
Candidates have a wide range of politics and policies. Among them, the most watched is housing problems, cracking down on fraud and corruption, and dealing with young childization.
In terms of solving housing problems, Lai Qingde proposed the "three residential arrows" on July 6, including supporting the promotion of housing taxation tax, launching new Qing'an mortgages, and expanding houses and rent subsidies.The minimum interest rate of Xinqing'an mortgage, which has received the most attention, dropped to 1.565%, the loan amount increased to 10 million yuan, and the loan period was extended to 40 years.
The Kuomintang launched the "Hou Kang Loan" that allowed youth to buy a house with a short period of time. The loan amount reached 15 million yuan. Compared with Xinqing'an mortgage, Hou Kang's loan is not rich in wealth.
The "Three Duoxi" policies proposed by Ke Wenzhe include vigorously building club houses, vigorously modified taxes, and replenished housing rents, because it was relatively empty and did not cause much discussion.
In terms of cracking down fraud, the most critical action proposed by Lai Qingde's scam operation is to block international fraud phone and newsletter from the source, and various banks block fraud.
Hou Youyi advocated an increase of one -half of the criminal responsibility, the integration department would fight fraud, and promised to reduce the fraud case within three years after taking office.He also advocated restarting the special investigation team of the Procuratorate of the Supreme Court to crack down on corrupt officials.
In response to the challenges of the declining child, Lai Qingde proposed to raise a country zero to six years old, and increase the burden on the cost of childcare parental parental parental parenting parents at a time of 3.9 billion yuan to increase the monthly subsidy of quasi -public babies and nanny services.To 13,000 yuan.
Hou Youyi proposed to take care of free after the age of six to 12 years old, emphasizing that the start rate rate is 100 % and the schools are all available. The extension time is at 7 pm, and the class and the winter and summer vacations are usually opened to expand civil participation.This political opinion caused many young couples.
Ke Wenzhe suggested that in order to encourage the good ideas of more friendly and childcare, the Executive Yuan will allocate 10 billion special funds.The district, further promoted to the entire Taiwan.
Zhao Shaokang promised to promote the analysis of the cabinet system: strive for middle voters' identity
In addition, Zhao Shaokang, vice presidential candidate of the Kuomintang, also promised to promote the cabinet system "otherwise vice president" when he was elected to promote the cabinet system within one year. He emphasized that this is also the focus of constitutional reform advocated by Ke Wenzhe.Zhao Shaokang's move is regarded as a fight for middle voters.
How to focus on the Top Ten People in the Wild Party needs to be considered
Focus on corruption and disadvantages related to green energy in the opposition party, and predict to lock in the top ten people's grievances, and how much impact on the ruling party is still to be observed.
In the penultimate stage of elections, Ke Wenzhe, the presidential candidate of the People's Party, and Hou Youyi, a Kuomintang candidate, and Zhao Shaokang, all successfully pounded Huanglong.Disadvantages.
In order to realize the "2025 non -nuclear homeland" policy, the DPP government has urged the green energy industry as Tainan, the most sufficient area in Taiwan, and has become a must -have for solar optoelectronics industry.The official promotes the symbiosis of fishing and electricity, laying the "planting electricity" in the solar plates in fish and farmland, which has triggered a series of chaos involving the distribution of industry personnel, government personnel, and underworld interests, including the bribery case of the Speaker and the 88 -gun case.Citizens also complained that a large amount of electricity has caused heat waves and ecological damage.
Hou Youyi previews the top ten people's complaints of the ruling party. According to the media, the top ten people include the import of American pork (Lai pig) with Lake dopamine, blocking BNT Pfizer vaccine procurement, plagiarism of political figures, and the crisis of egg lack of egg lack., Threat of the Taiwan Strait War, the lack of electricity, no house, closing Zhongtian News, scams, and the disadvantages of the Hsinchu baseball field.
Experts: Be careful of the Top Ten people and resent the darts to hit their own
Professor Zheng Zilong, a communication scholar, commented that the people's complaints are mostly historically co -operated.
College student Xiaowen said that the fire of the opposition party was too weak to compare with the DPP's supervision of the school movement and labor movement when the DPP was launched.Xiao Jing, a master's student, also described "the DPP is more like a competent party in the opposition." The Kuomintang started the fighting artillery by Zhao Shaokang in the later election. It may be a bit late.
Du Shengcong, director of the Department of Radio and Television, Mingchuan University, believes that the DPP's dead point is that house prices are high, which makes young people feel weak and cannot see the future.Both parties in the country must take the solid party to the problem, and to propose a solid party in order to relieve people's grievances and win long -term support of voters.
