Jin Jianguo
The abandonment of free trade policies is a major transformation of US foreign trade policies. The Sino -US trade war shows that a market economy dominated by enterprises is also unable to reconcile with the government -led semi -market economy.Sino -US conflicts have caused new changes in the global trade pattern.
First, the United States has abandoned the leadership of the multilateral trading system.After World War II, the United States was the leader of the multilateral trading system. With the leadership of the United States and the cooperation of Europe, the global multilateral trading system was established and operated.The multilateral trading system plays an important role in the prosperity of the world economy after World War II to the 1970s.The development of international trade has promoted the multinational transactions and operations of finance and investment, and a new wave of globalization is surging.
Due to the significant leadership of the United States in globalization, this wave of globalization is also known as American -style globalization by academia.However, in 2001, the World Trade Organization's "Dogha Round Trade Negotiations" (also known as the "Dogha Development Aired agenda") failed in the process of trade liberalization, proving that the United States has been unable to integrate the gap between the "North and South Gets".The free trade demanded by the United States has shrank from a multilateral trading system to seeking regions or bilateral free trade, and then abandoning free trade policies characterized by tariff reduction.
The "North -South Honglou" in the "Dogha Development Amber" refers to the developed members such as the United States and Europe, seeking to further open the industrial products and service markets of members in the development of development; members of the development hope to reduce agricultural subsidies and open the agricultural market.The gap between the "North and South Hongou" caused the "Dogha Development Agenda" to fail to reach a balanced agreement, which was specifically manifested that both India and the United States refused to make any concessions.There is no possibility of turning in this deadlock.
The reason for this dilemma is that developed countries have completed the transformation from the industrial economy to serving the economy, and have entered the era of digital economy; and developing countries are still in the transformation of the agricultural economy to the industrial economy.The gap between the "North and South Hongou" has led to a consensus of their respective trading policies.
Under the context of unable to promote the multilateral trading system, the United States has embarked on the road to seeking regions or bilateral free trade.After 2001, the Bush government completed the signing and implementation of more than 20 free trade agreements.The economic value of these trade agreements is small, and it is basically a small country that reached a free trade agreement.The Bush government has achieved political goals with the help of a free trade agreement.
The Obama government has promoted negotiations of the free trade agreement between the two regions, namely the Cross Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) and the Cross -Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement (TTIP).The former achieved negotiation results, and the latter negotiated.Trump exited TPP, and the Bayeng government was not interested in TPP, and he was not interested in talking about TTIP.
Second, the multilateral trading system has reached the end.India is a stirring of the "Dogha Development Amber".India used to be a distorter of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP).The announcement of India's announcement on the eve of RCEP's final negotiations reflects India's doubts about free trade and dare not face the competitive pressure of Chinese finished products.India is a major country in developing countries. In the past 20 years, India's economy has made great progress, but India still holds a trade protectionist gesture, and combines developing countries such as Brazil. The multilateral trading system is expected to obtain consensus in orderThe goal.
The US -India trade conflict and cooperation
The conflict between India and the United States in the multilateral trading system does not mean the judgment of the U.S. -India relations.The implementation of the "Indo -Pacific Strategy" in the United States is inseparable from India's support. It is not enough to launch the "Asia -Pacific Economic Framework" in the United States.Partnership in science and technology.The United States plans to join the six technological innovation centers in India to support at least 25 joint research projects in the fields of artificial intelligence and data science in 2022 to promote progress in applications such as agriculture, health and climate.The National Science Foundation and the Indian Department of Science and Technology will deepen cooperation through "key and emerging technical initiatives".
From ICET, the United States does not persuade India to take a free trade road, but to directly pull India to develop a digital economy.Indian Prime Minister Modi used this opportunity to call on the United States to invest in India to participate in the "Indian Manufacturing" plan.The goal of "manufacturing in India" is to replace China's world factory status.On September 25, 2014, Modi launched the "Indian Manufacturing" plan. In June 2019, the Indian Automobile Manufacturers Association (SIAM) published a paper confession pointed out that the free trade agreement is damaging "Made in India."It can be seen that the industrialization path to India is to improve India's manufacturing with the help of the United States' scientific and technological power.
India, which continuously strives to enhance the manufacturing industry, requires taxes to protect their "naive industries". At present, India cannot follow the road of trade liberalization.The United States is not interested in taking the road of trade liberalization in the field of agricultural and finished products.Judging from the new version of the North American Free Trade Agreement (US -Mexico Agreement), the United States is interested in economic rules such as digital trade, environment and labor, state -owned enterprise rules.Judging from the demands of their respective foreign trade policies in the United States and India, the traditional multilateral trading system has reduced tariffs and non -tariff trade liberalization, but this does not mean that the multilateral trading system has ended.Continue to operate in the field.
Third, the globalization of trade liberalization has changed.Globalization has brought generous returns to American multinational companies and Wall Street elites, and also brings American consumers with low prices for a long time.
After China became the main trading partner of the United States, the attack on China became a phenomenon in American society.The "Trump phenomenon" has an inherent connection with the "iron rust zone". Therefore, Biden is very taboo to reduce the trade liberalization of tariffs and will not touch the trade liberalization agenda.
Giving up a free trade agenda does not mean giving up globalization.Optimizing the allocation of resource allocation worldwide is an irreversible truth. The United States understands the importance of the foreign economy than any other country in the United States, and abandoning globalization is equivalent to walking.However, the United States reorganized globalization under the influence of the Sino -US trade war, crown disease epidemic and the Russian and Ukraine War. It promoted "friendly shore outsourcing" in the name of "critical supply chain" and advocated "buying American goods" internally.Emphasizing "Made in the United States", increasing employment, and seeking part of self -sufficiency in critical industries, the United States is still taking a global road.
The US -Europe trade relations are more close
On June 15, 2021, the European Union -the United States Trade and Technology Council (TTC) was officially launched.TTC will be a forum for the United States and the European Union to coordinate and deal with key global trade activities, economic and technical issues, and on the basis of sharing common values, deepen cross -Atlantic trade and economic relations.It includes the diversification and transparency of the supply chain of forced labor, improvement of rare earth, solar energy, and chip industries.The United States and the European Union are trying to seek convergence in the field of trade and technology.
On November 21, 2022, the Wall Street Journal reported that while seeking decouplery with China in Western countries, relations between the United States and Europe have become closer, and cross -Atlantic trade and investment are growing rapidly.In 2022, the imports from Europe from Europe higher than imports from China were a new transformation.In September alone, Germany's exports to the United States increased by nearly 50%year -on -year.
According to EU data, the US service exports to the European Union are surging, and in 2021, it has increased by 17%year -on -year to 305 billion euros (about 440 billion yuan).According to a recent research report in Rhodium Group, small and medium -sized German companies have been scattered investment from China.From January to September 2021, German mechanical engineering companies exported to the United States year -on -yearIt increased by nearly 20%to 18 billion euros.
Fourth, the US reorganization globalization has gradually reduced China's "world factory".Science and technology companies are gradually transferring the supply chain out of China. Apple is producing iPad in northern Vietnam. Microsoft's Xbox game consoles have been shipped from Ho Chi Minh City since 2022. Amazon has produced Fire TV devices in Kimner, India.A few years ago, all these products were made in China.Taiwan Hon Hai Group is accelerating the expansion of production bases outside China, and the ratio has risen to 30%.According to the information released by the Imperial Credit Credit of the Japan Investigation Corporation, as of June 2022, there were 12,706 Japanese companies stationed in China, a decrease of more than 1,600 compared with the 14,394 in 2012.
The author is a commentator in Shanghai, China
Judging from the demands of their respective foreign trade policies in the United States and India, the traditional multilateral trading system has reduced tariffs and non -tariff trade liberalization, but this does not mean that the multilateral trading system has ended.The field of trade liberalization continues to operate.
