Observe Southeast Asia
● Crown disease 19 epidemic
Vietnam was the first to suspend rice exports on March 24 for the crown disease, and Myanmar and Cambodia followed up.Thai rice prices soared all the way due to the affected and dry climate. At the end of March, the benchmark export price of rice rose to $ 550 per metric ton (about S $ 783), a new high since August 2013.India stopped logistics because of the national sealed city, and rice exports stopped.
Is Mihu?
Affected by the 2019 coronary virus disease, Vietnam took the lead in suspending rice exports on March 24, and Myanmar and Cambodia followed up.
Thai rice prices soared all the way due to the impact of the crown disease and drought climate. At the end of March, the benchmark export price of rice rose to $ 550 per metric ton (about S $ 783), a new high since August 2013.India stopped logistics because of the national sealed city, and rice exports stopped.
White rice is the main grain of the people of many people in the Aya country, and rice is indispensable on each household dining table.The rice exporter either restricts exports or soaring rice prices, which will inevitably cause the outside world to worry about mdash; mdash; the crown disease epidemic will cause the 2008 grain crisis to repeat it?
Japanese media: Restricted exports of rice exports attracted the attention of Yaxian
Ninety percent of rice in the world is grown in Asia, and India, Vietnam, and Thailand are all main exporters.According to data in 2018, India is the world's largest exporter (30.1%), Thailand's second (22.7%), the third (9%) of Vietnam, Cambodia (1.5%) and Myanmar (1.4%) ranked 10th and 11 respectivelyBit.
According to the Japanese Economic News, the restrictions on the exporter of the main rice exports have prompted senior officials of Asian member states to hold an emergency meeting earlier this month to discuss how to maintain normal food supply.
The report quoted Olamen, the director of the Trade Negotiations of the Thai Ministry of Commerce, said: We basically agree that the Asianan country should keep the trade channels unobstructed, so that member states can purchase goods, especially food.
However, countries should also have the right to ensure their own food safety, just like Vietnam.Therefore, we need more time to reach consensus.
Vietnam control rice export quota
Senior Researcher of the Easov Isaev Isa Eastern Institute and Director of the Vietnamese research project, Li Liangfu, said in an inquiry that as a ruling party, the responsibility of the Vietnam Communist Party was to ensure that the Vietnamese people had rice full.During the meeting, decided to limit the exit of rice.
The Vietnamese government announced on March 27 that it will reserve 190,000 metric tons of rice and 80,000 metric tons of brown rice by June 15 to meet the food needs during the epidemic.
After the export ban was implemented, the damaged Vietnamese rice merchants strived to relax export restrictions from the government.Vietnamese rice exports are higher than that of the domestic market. If all rice is left as domestic inventory, the earnings of rice merchants will be greatly reduced.The Ministry of Industry and Trade of Vietnam has suggested that the government restores rice exports, but its exports in April and May are limited to 800,000 metric tons.
Among the exports of 800,000 metric tons, 400,000 metric tons belonged to the April quota, a 40%decrease of 40%year -on -year, showing that the Vietnamese government was cautiously controlled rice export quotas.However, the Vietnamese government announced the day before yesterday that it would increase the export quota of rice in April to 500,000 metric tons.
Li Liangfu analyzed that the Vietnamese government decided to cancel some export restrictions after weighing domestic food reserves and export interests.It is not only to ensure that the domestic inventory is sufficient, but also meet the expectations of Michang to earn more export profits, but whether these two targets can be achieved at the same time remain to be observed.
At present, countries are paying attention to the red line of food inventory, while actively developing the source of food.
On March 26, the seven countries of Singapore, New Zealand, Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, and Myanmar announced a joint statement to ensure that countries can continue to maintain trade and logistics in the current outbreak.Among the signed countries, New Zealand, Canada, Australia, and Chile are all the world's major food exporters, but the rice exporting countries in Southeast Asia participated in Vietnam and Thailand.
The South China Morning Post quoted Elms, executive director of the Singapore Asian Trade Center, said that during the epidemic period, the trade between the country was not smooth.Some countries that originally advocated the opening of goods and services may not stand up to this position.
Expert: Consumers are not afraid of rice without rational procurement
A unnamed local supermarket head of the local supermarket revealed to this newspaper when he was questioned on Tuesday that he had not heard of Vietnamese rice restored.
The person in charge also said that Vietnamese rice is not the main source of imports in Singapore and does not have much impact on the local area. Instead, the export restriction of rice export countries will damage its international reputation, and importers and food operators in other countries may lose confidence in it.
The person in charge also revealed that although the supply of some Thai rice was reduced due to the drought of the climate and the impact of the epidemic, as long as the consumer purchased rationally, do not panic and hoard the goods, and the inventory is sufficient.
It is understood that each country will maintain rice grain inventory at the level of safety, while the shortcomings meet at least three months of demand, and the long time is eight months or more.
Duterte: The rice problem affects social stability
The main nations of the world's rice are concentrated in Asia, as well as the main importing countries. The Philippines and Indonesia are large households.
According to the US Department of Agriculture, the Philippines is the world's largest rice importer last year, setting a record of 3.2 million metric tons.This year, the Philippines will continue to maintain the status of the world's largest rice importer, and it is expected to import about 2.7 million metric tons of rice.
The Philippine rice is mainly supplied by Vietnam, accounting for 85%of the domestic market.No wonder the President Duterte repeatedly emphasized when he participated in the Special Summit of the Asian Delica Leader through the video of the Said of Asia in the middle of this month that the problem of grain security risks was noticeable, especially rice, because it would affect the social and economic and political stability of the country.
The problem of rice grain can be large or small, and countries that depend on imported significantly must ensure that the supply is abundant and maintain the price stable at the same time, otherwise it may cause inflation and social turmoil.
If the epidemic is dragged until next year, there will be rice waste?Scholars: Unlikely
Professor Deng Bingxiang, a senior researcher at the Nanda Lajele South International Relations Research Institute, said in an inquiry in Lianhe Morning Post, saying that at present, it seems that in one to two months, most countries with rice -based grains are abundant.
At least, according to the predictions of the two major grain institutions MDASH; mdash; the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the year of 2020 (including rice) is sufficient.A report from the US Department of Agriculture also pointed out that there is currently no problem of lack of food supply.Global rice production is estimated to be 500 million metric tons from 2019 to 2020, while global inventory exceeds 180 million metric tons.
If the coronal virus is still dying after 2020, will a crisis of rice deserted coming?
Deng Bingxiang pointed out that this depends on when the main rice produces India, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and other countries when when the crown disease epidemic reaches its peak, and whether these countries are allowed to return to farmland to plant and harvest during the city sealing, and let them get it to obtain them.The required fertilizers and seeds.
Like China, the peak of the epidemic has passed. At present, farmers have been allowed to return to farmland, and the transportation of seeds and fertilizers has also been restored, but China is not a major rice exporter.
Deng Bingxiang said that how many rice is available for international market transactions in 2021, the key is to produce the countryWhether the epidemic can be controlled in a timely manner.
If the epidemic in Vietnam and Thailand deteriorates, the situation has not improved by 2021, and rice is forced to stop planting, then rice supply may be short, but this possibility is not much.
As for how rice importing countries should reduce their dependence on imported rice, Deng Bingxiang said that countries with planting capacity but not much output, such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines, can increase investment in multiple prongs, such as improving management and policies, improving technologiesAnd improve the processing process after harvesting rice.
Countries that lack planting capacity and rely on imported rice, such as Singapore, Deng Bingxiang believes that signing more binding food supply agreements, and assisting rice export countries to increase planting volume is a response strategy, or even adopt alternative rice policies.
For example, the main food is replaced by wheat and corn, but family income must be maintained to a certain level.
