The Hong Kong Ming Pao's review article pointed out that the first quarter economic growth in mainland China has a record low, which is a negative growth of 6.8%, and the prospects are not optimistic, especially the global economy shrinks. The export will be severely hit.The status of the industrial chain will weaken.Even so, there is no need to worry about it, because it is expected that there is still a full year to reply to the growth and win to win other major countries.The prescriptions of mainstream opinions believe that they need to boost domestic demand, but they must take advantage of this opportunity to eliminate the people's concerns about social security and the burden on housing, so as to improve the consumption power, which is the good recipe for changing the pattern.
Epidemic affects purchasing power prospects and expects more important
The new crown virus epidemic has brought heavy creation to the health of the people, and its blow to the Chinese economy is not light.In the first quarter, the agricultural, industrial and service industries were all negatively increased, and the difficulty of agriculture was not fearful. Because transportation was restricted, it would recover after the epidemic.Industrial products are trapped internal and external, and domestic demand and export decline have directly affect industrial growth.For a long time in domestic production, as the epidemic was controlled and resumed production, the industrial added value in March has narrowed from 13.5%in the previous two months to negative 1.1%.The export value in March also rebounded, but because the global epidemic intensified, the orders not only did not increase, but it was canceled. It is estimated that it is not optimistic in the next few months.
From the perspective of the overall figures, the impact of the tertiary industry seems to be mild, with only 5.2%, but it has increased and decreased, and the overall decline in neutrality.The catering industry decreased by 44.3%, and the retail industry decreased by 19%. However, the information industry increased by 13.2%in the first quarter. The transportation and retail industry also rebounded significantly in March.The question is whether the service industry will rebound in V -shaped due to the ease of the epidemic. It is generally believed that this time it is huge different from the SARS epidemic in 17 years ago. SARS basically only affects Guangdong and Beijing.In the past, the epidemic was almost national. What is worse is that after the mainland epidemic is controlled, foreign countries are out of control. At present, there are still asymptomatic infections.And the mall or the door is too cold.
Consumption capacity and intentions are unprecedentedly hit, suspended work, production, and economic suspension. The unemployment rate in the first quarter reached 5.9%. Although it has been eased from February in March, it has been eased from February.Simply resigning to return to home, the actual unemployment rate may be higher, and the actual disposable income of the nationals decreases by 3.9%, which is a factor affecting the purchasing power.However, the greater impact is the expectation of the future economic development trend. There are still many uncertain factors in the global epidemic. Europe seems to have reached a turning point.Digital, people are pessimistic about prospects, which will definitely affect consumer desire.
Even if the epidemic is willing to end soon, the impact of this epidemic on the global industrial chain is far -reaching.Judging from the exposure of more than two months, after the suspension of production in China, due to the high dependence on the raw materials and semi -finished products in many industries, it has caused the global pharmaceutical and automobile industries to discontinue production.Many countries are aware of the seriousness of the problem, and they have begun to transfer the factories in China to other places. The United States and Japan have announced the cost of funding for industrial transfer.Leaving aside political factors, global organizational production arrangements may become regionalized. The status of China's manufacturing and logistics transportation in the global industrial chain will weaken. At present, foreign direct investment and foreign companies' contribution to China's GDP will be about 20% of about 20%.It affects the employment rate. The decoupling with China is the strategic intention of the United States and the European Union. How many enterprises and industries are implemented in the United States and the European Union. At present, it is difficult to conclude, but the changes in the pattern generated in the future cannot be underestimated.
Medical housing expenditure determines domestic demand consumption
The three -driving carriages affecting China's economic development are investment, domestic demand and exports. In recent years, China's dependence on foreign trade has gradually decreased. At presentInstead, the total consumption accounted for 38%of GDP in the first quarter, but it was pivotal.In addition to the influence of the recent epidemic and international demand, people's spending power is the economic burden. The two major factors are the people's medical expenses and real estate prices.At present, the national medical insurance coverage rate has reached 95%, and the amount of reimbursement can be reimbursed every month and major illnesses, but after all, it has not reached a reassuring point. People still need to have enough funds for possible medical reserves of medical treatment.Consumption.
The biggest burden of residents in large cities is the level of housing. Price prices have reached the level that makes the migrant workers discouraged. If you can afford the house, you must also consume food for monthly mortgages. This is the biggest factor affecting consumption power.Although the central government has repeatedly stated that houses have been used for living, not for speculation, the contribution of real estate income to local governments' fiscal revenue often makes local governments unable to tempt.In the first quarter, all investment in the first quarter shrinks. Only the real estate investment has rebounded the fastest. If this is caused by the intentional and unintentional encouragement of local governments, it shows that the local economy has not yet gone out of the strange circle of dependence of the real estate industry.Essence
The impact of the epidemic on the changes in the world pattern will be unprecedented. The GDP for a period of time is just a small epitome. It is placed in the changes in the large pattern, only the Ganges drip.If this epidemic can have a positive impact on the direction of investment in the country and private enterprises, adapt to the trend, adjust the adjustment, increase medical insurance coverage, reduce the burden on housing, and develop the long -term economic development of China, especially the further development of domestic demand consumption.Essence
