01 Viewpoint
After OPEC Organization (OPEC) with Russia's negotiations with Russia last month, the international oil prices fluctuated sharply under the reduction of the price war, but US President Trump said on Thursday (2nd) that Saudi Arabia and Russia are expected to be expected to be expected to be on Thursday (2nd).After reaching a production reduction agreement within a few days, international oil prices rose by 25%, setting a record in a single day.However, under the stability of the fiscal pressure of the oil Yuan Kingdom and the political situation that maintains its own sphere of influence, even if Saudi Arabia and Russia do not have a needle -piercing lead, they may not be able to capture the market for a long time in the epidemic of new crown pneumonia.Therefore, the great rebound of oil prices may not be the credit of the United States.
According to statistics from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the three major oil -producing countries in the world in 2019 are the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia, respectively. The total of the three countries accounts for a total of 42%of the global market share.However, the latter two are willing to open up production capacity when Hongqiu's economy is downward, and the large -scale war reduction is related to its production cost.Under the government subsidy, according to the early report of Rystad Energy Ucube, the cost of oil production in Saudi Arabia was the lowest in the world, with a barrel of about nine dollars per barrel. Although the cost of Russia in Russia required $ 19, it is also the fourth low in the world.There is a capital to hurt people.Just as Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak has threatened that the country's oil companies have maintained competitiveness at any predictable price level.
Saudi and Russia's hidden concerns
However, although the black gold under the land is wealthy, it can make a country get rich, but it also seduces that a country is not thinking for progress and excessively relying on the sale of natural resources to live.example.Oil Yuan Kingdom means that most of the revenue of a country comes from the sale of national resources, and then uses income for secondary distribution to stabilize employment and provide public welfare services such as education and medical care in exchange for the social contract for the public to grant regime recognition.
Behind the surface scenery, Saudi Arabia and Russia also have their public financial concerns.Even though the cost of oil production in the two countries is far lower than the global average, because the source of public fiscal sources in the two countries mainly depends on the sale of oil or natural gas, this makes it the substantial cost of the price war, which exceeds other thinner oil producing countries: Saudi Arabia’s: Saudi Arabia’sThe budget of the fiscal balance is $ 83.6, while Russia is $ 42.4.Therefore, even if Russia has its cost advantage, it is currently necessary to face a budget gap of more than 39 billion US dollars, and Saudi Arabia has to cut a budget of 20 % recently.It can be seen that the end of the price reduction will also hurt the enemy for one thousand and damage the dark battle of 800.
In addition to the supply surface, the new crown pneumonia has greatly reduced global energy demand, and the reality that the two countries have to face.According to the report of the International Energy Organization (IEA) last month, when the global transportation industry stopped, global oil demand decreased by about 1.1 million barrels per day, which is equivalent to the average daily output of Saudi Arabia last year.Under the circumstances, the financial issues of the two countries will definitely become more and more intense, and they may not be able to support a loss business for a long time.
Take the business partners of each must be taken
In addition, even though Saudi Arabia and Russia are fighting in the crude oil market, the essence of the relationship between the two countries is not an ideological opponent, but its own business partners.The situation occurred.As Moscow, as a country in the Middle East and Central Asia respectively, Riyadh not only must try to maintain the stability of its own regime, but also unsure the neighbors in the sphere of influence to maintain the role of natural barriers between the great powers.However, due to the delay of the price reduction, allies of the two countries, such as Barin, Kuwait, the UAE, the UAE, Azerbaijan, Kazakh, Turkmen, and other oil Yuan countries have suffered great injuries.The civil war forced the two countries to intervene, as if mud into the sea.
After entering the Syrian civil war, Russia and Saudi Arabia have frequently interacted in affairs in the Middle East. It is not completely a clear relationship between the enemy and ourselves. Therefore, the reduction of the price reduction does not have to involve the light fighting of the two countries, but it can also be a joint means to squeeze the US shale gas merchants.As the above -mentioned see, the increase in oil production capacity in the United States in recent years is due to the shale gas technology revolution in the 2010s of the 2010s, but due to the cost of oil production of many medium and small manufacturers as high as 55 to 65 US dollars a barrel, it is difficult to reduce it.The price war is only the leader of the decimal industry, such as Chevron and ExMobil, which can continue to operate at $ 25 to 35 in oil prices.Therefore, Russia and Saudi Arabia only need to snatch some of the US market share in the short term. In fact, they have already received gold and discussed the production reduction agreement.
