Zheng Weibin

Cai Yingwen is lucky.At the beginning of 2020, Tsai Ing -wen was not only successfully re -elected. High votes were elected leaders in Taiwan. At the same time, due to the outbreak of the Coronatte Virus disease epidemic, it also allowed him to continue high popularity.

Compared with the countries in the surrounding areas, the losses of South Korea, Japan and other countries, the epidemic prevention work of Tsai Ing -wen and its government has received support and recognition of many Taiwanese.Although there are many public opinion storms in this process, this does not prevent Tsai Ing -wen's continuous rise in political satisfaction.

For example, the polls announced by the pro -blue media TVBS in early February show that Cai Yingwen's satisfaction is as high as 54%, which is a new high in ruling in the past four years, and the dissatisfaction has decreased to 29%.Similarly, the polls made by the Taiwan Public Opinion Fund in the Green think tank in late February showed that 68.4%of the way Tsai Ing -wen dealt with the major events, and only 16.5%of the disagreements were not agreed.This support rate is also the highest support rate that Tsai Ing -wen has obtained in the public opinion survey since May 2016.

But accompanied by this support rate, it is the increase and spread of cross -strait relations with the opposite mood of cross -strait relations.Originally hoped that it was possible to resolve cross -strait relations due to the need for epidemic prevention, and now it seems to be an imaginary.

After the epidemic appeared, due to problems such as Wuhan Pakistani, Luci and his children's entry into Taiwan, not only the official cross -strait officials were screaming, but also caused opposition in the people.Under the fear of the epidemic, identity becomes the only criterion that distinguish whether each other is worthy of trust.

In a sense, this may mean that Taiwan's identity has entered a new era.In the past, the era of distinction between people and people from other provinces had ended. Next, who is Taiwanese is a new identity politics.

However, because of this identity, even the land distribution and their children that have a long -term residence permit in Taiwan have still not accepted because of the attributes of the mainland. Under this epidemic, they became the focus of public opinion and the center of the storm.Essence

It is difficult to say that this emotional opposition is not the projection of Hong Kong's anti -Chinese movement in Taiwan last year, and the sequelae of anti -Chinese emotions in the election in January 2020.

The question now is, how long will such emotions last?For Tsai Ing -wen, perhaps this emotion can be transformed into her political energy, becoming a source of high support rates, and even makes her more confident and hard to face the mainland.

As she was bluntly accepted in an exclusive interview with the BBC after the election, China needs to prepare for the fact that the situation has changed, and the mold has no longer effective. We are already an independent country., Army and elections.

However, if such a emotion is transformed into Cai Yingwen's request for Cai Yingwen, promoting Taiwan's independence, and joining the United Nations in the next day, how will Tsai Ing -wen face it?

If we look back at Cai Yingwen's actions since 2019, the reason why it can be defeated in the local election in 2018 and is elected again for a high vote.With the help of Xi Jinping's Taiwan, two systems, two systems and two systems, Hong Kong's anti -Sino -US trade war and other incidents, it took the momentum to successfully lead the public opinion on Taiwan Island.

So how will Tsai Ing -wen control the use of such a strong anti -Chinese emotion in Taiwan?This will probably be the key to whether she can repeat her predecessor during the second term.

Chen Shui -bian suffered the siege of the Equiso Army due to corruption, and Ma Ying -jeou suffered a sun flower movement due to the cross -strait service trade agreement and lame it in advance.This seems to be a curse that Taiwan leaders cannot break.

In an interview with the media, Tsai Ing -wen said: Don't underestimate Taiwan. Taiwan has considerable strength whether it is economy or national defense. Many people say that we are other people's chess pieces, but don't forget that we are also players ourselves, and I will follow the trend.operate.

As mentioned above, Tsai Ing -wen did play a good player role later.Compared with early governance, because of the problems of party property and annuity reform, the problem of same -sex marriage amendments, and the change of policy changes in labor, etc., Tsai Ing -wen and the DPP became the target of public criticism.In the 2018 local election, a defeat was suffered.

So, how can Tsai Ing -wen, who already knows how to follow the trend and borrowing the momentum, use two trends in international and islands?Is it just like the BBC interview, just to show hard and domineering to the mainland?

Perhaps from global perspective, Taiwan's current military and economic volume is indeed not small.But in front of the mainland, the gap between the two is also obvious.

What's more, since the direct election of Taiwan's leaders in 1996, political disputes within Taiwan have missed Taiwan's missing opportunities and consume a lot of energy.Nowadays, the Kuomintang is weak and weak. The Democratic Progressive Party not only has begun to master the main cards of the Republic of China, but also focuses on the development of the economy, allowing the Taiwan economy to re -stand in the near future to lead the Asian four dragons.If you can focus on the development of its own economic development and international influence under the stable cross -strait relations, maybe Taiwan can obtain better conditions and get better chips facing the mainland.

Especially in international relations, although it is difficult for Taiwan to break through the pressure and blockade of the mainland under the current conditions, the official relationship is only the side of the international influence after all. On public opinion and unofficial channels, there is also a space for doing.Similarly, in key events, the trust relationships from the people and unofficial trust can also play unexpected results.

Therefore, in the current context, focusing on Taiwan's economic development, expanding its international influence, and maintaining Taiwan's ability to survive should be the focus of Tsai Ing -wen's second term.Because as long as the existence is the power, only the existence can give birth to the possibility of changing.

In other words, Tsai Ing -wen has to know what is advanced and based on Taiwan to consolidate Taiwan's fundamental interests.The current high public opinion can provide strong support for its pressure on the mainland.But blindly stubborn, I am afraid it is not what a good chess player should do.

Similarly, for the mainland, Cai Yingwen's successful counterattack in Taiwan represents changes within Taiwan.If you do not want to do wars in the Taiwan Strait and unify Taiwan in a force, then face this change and join the consideration of the consideration of Taiwan's policy, which is the right choice.

The author is Beijing Freelance

For the mainland, Cai Yingwen's successful counterattack in Taiwan represents changes in Taiwan.If you do not want to have a war in the end of the Taiwan Strait and unify Taiwan by force, then face this change and join the consideration of the consideration of Taiwan's policy is the right choice.