The epidemic of new coronary virus pneumonia (COVID-19) forced China to extend the Spring Festival holiday. Factory in various places resumed work, and the transportation was almost paralyzed, which seriously disrupted the global supply chain.Mainland China has recently resumed work. The mainland media quoted the factory staff of Apple's Foxconn Foxconn, saying that the community was expected to basically reach the same period of the previous year at the end of this month.However, some experts believe that the impact of the disruption of the supply chain will continue.This epidemic caused public opinion to pay attention to the problem of disrupting the global supply chain. Some experts reported to Ming that factors such as rising production costs in mainland China and the Sino -US trade war have long been to start researching the supply chain to move out of China, and the epidemic will accelerate the acceleration of the epidemic situation.The speed of this trend will depend on how transparent the Chinese government is on the epidemic.
Foxconn Zhengzhou Factory is expected to restore the end of the month
Although Apple said earlier that the epidemic would crack down on the first quarter of shipments and profit, the president Cook said last Friday that it was still very optimistic about China's control of the epidemic.EssenceXinhua News Agency reported yesterday that a large number of workers are returning to Zhengzhou, Henan Province. The iPhone of the Apple mobile phone is gradually recovering the noise of the past in one of the world's largest shipments.However, the Financial Times quoted experts yesterday that due to the influence of China's supply chain, the shipments of computer and smart phone calls will be delayed. Some experts have warned that some companies underestimate the impact of supply chain disturbances.It is reported that several electronic retailers were informed that the supply time of personal computers and parts will be 3 times more than usual.
Some supply chain experts believe that due to the increasing impact of component supply, the supply chain will continue.TRENDFORCE predicted the prediction of the global computer shipments this season from 35 million to 27.5 million, a 26%decrease from the same period last year; Canalys estimates that global personal computers fell 3.4%under the best situation, the worst declined situation, the worst situation fell down.8.5%.
Multinational enterprise research decentralized supply chain risk reduction
Compared with the outbreak of SARS in 2003, China now has a far more important role in the global manufacturing supply chain. The French Foreign Trade Bank Asia -Pacific chief economist Alicia Garcia Herrero pointed out that in 2003, China's manufacturing industry in 2003The export share is only 8%, and it has risen to 19%the year before. At the same time, with the upgrading of the trade structure, China has a more important position between ChinaWeakening or interruption will have a more serious impact on other parts of the world than ever.She pointed out that the electronics, automobiles, machinery and textile industries have the most negative affected.
Caroline Meinhardt, the analyst of the German think tank Makato China Research Center (Merics) who studied the industrial chain, stated to Ming that after the outbreak of the Sino -US trade war, multinational companies have begun to re -evaluate the risk exposure to its supply chain.The disruption of the supply chain caused by the epidemic is likely to promote further decentralization of the supply chain in order to reduce risks.
Market data analysis company FutureMap management partner Parag Khanna is studying communications that it is believed that the epidemic is likely to accelerate the supply chain steering to avoid excessive concentration in China.He wrote the book The Future is Asian last year (the future belongs to Asia). It has been pointed out that this process has taken place for some time. The factors behind them include rising salary in China, local competition, geopolitical tension, and rapid economic growth in South Asia and Southeast Asia; in additionMany companies are smarter to make a model of Make Where You Sell, such as Apple expanded production in India last year.
Kang Shihe stated that Chinese workers and enterprises will inevitably be affected by this trend. For example, if some production lines move from China to ASEAN countries, they may not come back again.Southeast Asia is one of the main trends of supply chain migration. If the epidemic spreads further, the trend of supply chain steering will continue, especially to find a place for production activities, and the supply chain will always seek stability.
Expert: The transparency of the Chinese government epidemic is key
Derek Scissors, a senior researcher at the American Economic Institute (AEI), who specializes in the Chinese economy, believes that the supply chain has begun to slow down from China's economic growth.He reported to Ming that how much the epidemic will speed up the process depending on how transparent the Chinese government is on the epidemic. If the company believes that the government blocks information, it makes them unable to evaluate the chance of virus -like outbreaks, which will make them more likely to reduce them inChina's existence.
