01 Viewpoint

In order to regain the final base of the opposition, the Syrian government forces began to launch an air raid on Idlib (Idlib) last Thursday (February 27), which has killed at least 33 Turkish soldiers on a single day.In addition to warning, Turkey would attack the Syrian army in addition to a comprehensive attack. After several rounds of battles, Ankara re -opened the border and opened a passage to Greece for refugees who stayed in the territory to coerce the European Union and NATO's involvement in the Syrian war.

Turkish President Erdogan argued that this move was to respond to the EU's commitment to fail to fulfill the 2016 refugee agreement, but the refugees who were forced to escape from their homes were used as a political chip.Military operations are in exchange for victory, because the key to resolving the crisis is to watch the fire from the shore in the new round of conflicts.

In October last year, Turkey was renamed in the name of supporting anti -government armed organizations and suppressing the Kurdish armed organizations, and after invading the army to invade northern Syria, the situation became more and more positive.

Türkiye and Syria deteriorate

This time Erdogan's arsenal of refugees can be regarded as a continuation of the relationship between the two countries last month.After Erdogan's military adventure was launched, not only did it not be effective in the short room, but his whistle station became the goal of the Syrian government forces. It forced Turkey to mobilize the Air Force and the ground forces.At the same time, according to the United Nations statistics, after Turkey invaded Syria in December last year, the humanitarian crisis of Syria has deteriorated sharply for nine years. In two months, up to 700,000 people became refugees due to war fire, and it also caused 9 2018 9.The Sochi agreement signed by the month is at stake.

The Sochi agreement reached by Turkey and Russia in 2018 was originally trying to establish a de -military zone in Idlib Province to prevent a large number of refugees from flowing into the border due to war.The problem is that under Syria and Turkey suspecting each other, on the one hand, Turkey did not lift the armed organization Hay-ET TAHRIR Al-SHAM (HTS) on the one hand.No implementation.

The warming up of the Syrian Tu seems to be inevitable, but for Turkey, Idlib province is a battle of watery, and its fell consequences will be more serious than those of Bashar, Dongguta, Holmes and other placesEssenceFirst of all, as the final stronghold of the opposition, Idlib province not only symbolizes Ankara's military assistance from 2014, but also will be ruled out.If Bashar successfully takes over the province, the removal of up to 3 million civilians will escape into Turkey, so that the existing refugee burden will be added to the pound;A lot of casualties have not only challenged the domestic anti -war sound, but also caused a hardship request for revenge.This has forced Erdogan to retreat. It is necessary to treat refugees as a political chip, to seduce the European Union and NATO to help each other, and it is urgent.

Erdogan uses refugees

Erdogan's presence is to see that the EU's political trend is extremely affected by refugees.In 2016, the EU reached an agreement with Turkey, which was expedient in order to obstruct the flow of refugees, and reached an agreement with the EU values. The latter was responsible for receiving refugees repatriated from Europe in exchange for the former's financial subsidies.However, Erdogan's anti -dragging EU into the quagmire several years later not only violated the commitment to relieve refugees in exchange for subsidies, but also regarded the refugees as a person, completely ignoring the principles and bottom lines of the international community, as well as human beings to humansRespect for life.

However, the key to solving this refugee wave does not depend on Brussels, but Moscow, which is sandwiched between war countries.It is of course contrary to common sense as a humanitarian savior. However, since it was sent to support Bashar in 2015, Russia not only successfully protected the only allies in the Middle East to be exempted from overthrowing, but also used the US misconduct in the Middle East policy to become the Middle East.The middleman of the war faction.So far, Russia's influence is not only seen that Bashar must rely on it to maintain the continuation of the regime. At the same time, it can also be reflected in the military operations of Turkey's past in Syrian.The opportunity to reduce Russian and soil relations, so it can be seen that Erdogan's taboos have become the core of Russia's restraint of Syria.Under the actual and political considerations, Putin, who watched the fire from the shore, can not only play the role of the middlemen, promote the opportunity of the peace talks, alleviate the opportunity of refugee rushing Europe.Essence