IMF: If the spread of the epidemic will impact the momentum of the global economic rec

● Crown disease 19 epidemic

In a report prepared by the International Monetary Fund for the Group's Treasury Secretary of the Group and the Central Bank President Meeting, many risks faced by the global economy include the crown disease epidemic, Sino -US trade relations again, as well as the climate with the climateRelated natural disasters.

(Washington Composite Electric) The International Monetary Fund warned on Wednesday that the 2019 Coronatic Virus Disease (COVID-19) has impacted China's economic growth. If the epidemic is further spread to other countries, this may destroy the global economy that the height of the global economy this year will occur this year.recovery.

In a report prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the report prepared by the Twenty Group (G20) Finance Ministers and the Central Bank President Meeting, many risks faced by the global economy include the crown disease epidemic and Sino -US trade relationsNatural disasters related to climate related to climate.

Georkeva, Director -General of the International Monetary Fund, pointed out that the current epidemic has strongly reminded the world how to pose a great threat to the fragile economic recovery.She urged G20 member states decision makers to take action to alleviate other risk factors such as trade tensions, responding to long -term inequality and climate change.

Golkaya wrote in a blog that uncertainty has become a new normal.Some uncertain factors, such as diseases are not within the scope of our control, but in areas that can be avoided, we should not create new uncertainty.

The International Monetary Fund still retains the forecast made last month, that is, the global economy is expected to grow by 3.3%this year.Last year, the global economy increased by 2.9%.However, the organization also pointed out that even in the best case, it is expected that the global economy can only achieve moderate growth.

The organization said that the crown disease epidemic has interfered in China's production activities and may affect other countries in terms of tourism, supply chain, and commodity prices.If the trade situation heated up again, or the epidemic spread further, this may impact the global fragile recovery momentum.

Golkaya pointed out that although the first -stage trade agreement signed by China and the United States has eliminated some negative effects of trade tensions, it retains many tariffs and includes trade arrangements that may distort trade and investment.It is estimated that these arrangements may pay about $ 100 billion in global economy.

The G20 Treasury Secretary and the central bank's governor will hold two days in Liade on the 22nd.A draft of the bulletin they prepared also pointed out that the crown disease epidemic is one of the downlink risks faced by the global economy.

In the draft, after the end of 2019, after the end of 2019, global economic growth is expected to rise and recover hellip; hellip in 2020 and 2021;, Geopolical tensions and policy uncertainty.

The leaders of the meeting will support the conclusions of the G20 summit last year, and promise to be committed to achieving freedom, fairness, non -discrimination, transparent, predictable and stable trade and investment environment, and maintain the market open.They also stated in the draft that they supported digital taxes for Internet companies.

According to Oxford Economic Research estimates, if the crown disease has evolved into global epidemic, the economic losses brought by the crown may exceed $ 1 trillion (about 1.4 trillion yuan), which is equivalent to 1.3%of the global economic aggregate.

The research institute pointed out that the epidemic has significantly impacted Chinese economic activities, but the impact of the global economy is expected to be short -term.It is estimated that China's economic growth rate will fall from 6%last year to 5.4%.If the epidemic spreads wider extensively in Asia, the global GDP (GDP) will decrease by about 400 billion US dollars or 0.5%.

In case of crown disease is popular in the world, GDP will decrease sharply by $ 11 billion, which is equivalent to the annual output of Indonesia, the 16th largest economy in the world.The Oxford Research Institute pointed out that the deterioration of the epidemic will have a significant impact on consumption, tourism and investment in the next six months, but the global economy will quickly rebound after the global economy.