Economic Daily News
The 2019 coronary virus epidemic has exploded for more than a month, but it has obviously disrupted the economy from mainland China to the global economy.China's employment issues continue to deteriorate, domestic demand downturn, and difficult to re -work in essence to cause the global supply chain crisis crisis. The impact ratio brought about by the short period has continued one or two years of US -China trade war.At present, the economic impact of the global institutions on the epidemic is mostly locked in the short -term assessment. It is only that the epidemic is likely not to be just a short -term impact on the global economy, and it is more likely to have profound structural effects.
So far, the essence of the pneumonia's epidemic is that the consumption is blocked and the stop chain has caused discontinuation. If only there is only this and the epidemic can end soon, the impact will not be too great.It's just that these two conditions may be difficult to achieve.First of all, SARS was quickly determined to be related to temperature, and it could be terminated in summer. Therefore, it had little impact on long -term economic decision -making.The natural stopping confidence of the epidemic in various circles, and the expansion of uncertainty will inevitably affect long -term investment and production decisions.
Secondly, the impact of the epidemic on the Chinese economy will also be longer than the epidemic.Earlier, the biggest threat of China's economy was whether the trade war and the huge debt crisis had a lot of doubts whether it could spend it peacefully.
In addition to further deepening the impact of disconnection crisis, foreign -funded evacuation, and employment downturn caused by the epidemic war, domestic demand that could have been used as a barrier was also on the verge of danger.What is more serious is that the original currency and fiscal policies that can be used are facing the dilemma of mouse taboos.The loose currency supply is easy to push up prices in soaring, and there is a risk of corporate bond defaults and bank bad debts to the risks of corporate bonds.The enthusiastic fiscal policy is that countries are considering the anti -epidemic weapon, but they are not suitable for China.Previously, in order to offset the impact of the trade war, China has continuously consumed the amount of local debt in advance, and fiscal expenditure has increased significantly.Limited.
The Chinese economy is facing severe external impact and complex structural issues, which may be properly resolved for a while.For countries around the world, the deterioration of China's economy is not happy.In the past 20 years, China has grown rapidly among the global production chain and value chain, and the global economy's dependence on China is no longer comparable to SARS 17 years ago.
Because of this, countries have deeply felt the terrible systemic risks in this epidemic, and this risk is far from the urgent and serious trade war.Its influence is to reduce the pace of economic globalization that has retreated, and it has also made the short -chain revolution caused by the US policy to develop rapidly, and the supply chain barriers caused by the scientific and technological war have clearly occurred.
These structural shocks also forced Taiwan to take seriously.Because the situation is far more complicated and unpredictable than the SARS period, our response cannot only stop at epidemic prevention and simple industrial rescue measures, and we must have more active actions.
First of all, there is a systemic risk of the whole body and the whole body of the global economic connection with the Chinese economy. The trade war has demonstrated this characteristic. Fortunately, Taiwan has a moderate response or even benefiting.Possible risks.In addition to passively welcoming the Taiwan factory to return to Taiwan, our response to the integration of structure, tone, and deepening the industry's innovation energy is actually the most important priority at this stage.
The so -called regulating structure is to boldly eliminate industries that are overwhelmed by people, lack of autonomous ability, and susceptible to external risk impact in the supply chain.High -quality, low -risk supply chain.
The so -called tone is a inertia that must be abandoned in the past to chase the low cost, and guides enterprises to regard risk control as business privileges and guide the industry to attach importance to supply chain security.Only strengthening the innovative energy of the industry can grasp the source of non -manufacturing profits and reduce the harm of foreign risks to manufacturing activities.
For the industry, bailout is necessary, but for the government, it is necessary to provide a long -term policy plan for the overall economy in response to international risks.This plan must be immediately started, and the urgency and importance are no less than that of short -term bailout measures.
