In mid -January, China and the United States have finally reached the first phase of trade agreement after thousands of Xinxin.In the words of China Vice Premier Liu He, it prevented the decline in Sino -US relations and proved that the decoupling of economic and trade was unrealistic.This shows that China hopes that the agreement will start a new momentum of the two countries.US President Trump also said after the agreement was signed that Sino -US relations have never been so good.It seems that the Chinese people can have a happy and peaceful Lunar New Year.However, in less than a few days, a sudden virus epidemic crushed optimism.
As a public health incident involved in a wide range, the 2019 coronal virus epidemic can originally provide a good opportunity for improving the tight Sino -US relations.However, although the two sides intend to carry out cooperation, they still have continuous friction in the process, highlighting the fragility, complexity of the relationship, and the high difficulty of restoring political mutual trust.
After the epidemic, the response to the United States was very complicated.Trump expressed several times, praising China's resistance to the efforts and expressing his gratitude to Chinese leaders, and also said that the United States was willing to help.US Minister of Commerce Ross also took the lead in silently mourning to the deceased infected with the virus at the White House Spring Festival party; the White House chief economic adviser Kudro said that the United States plans to send the best experts in China and say that antiviral and economic and trade negotiations are not related. It is based on humanity.Order instinct.
However, it is also the Minister of Commerce Ross. In an interview with TV, the epidemic may help US jobs return.Kurod also made similar hints.Secretary of State Pompeo did not change the attitude of the eagle. When meeting with the British Foreign Minister, the Communist Party of China was the central threat of our time.
From the perspective of action, while the U.S. government stated that it was necessary to actively support China's anti -virus, it proposed a suggestion to dispatch top health and epidemic prevention teams to assist China. China accepted the U.S. officials under the framework of the U.S. officials under the framework of WHO.On January 29, Professor W. Ian Lipkin, University of Columbia, rushed to China to participate in antiviral work.
At the beginning of February, Gilyda, a multinational pharmaceutical company in the United States, provided China with a trial -resistant coronary virus drug for clinical emergency and announced its molecular structure.Once the clinical proof is effective, China can imitate it by itself.In early February, the first batch of official US officials aid medical supplies arrived.According to Chinese scholars through online statistics, as of early February, American companies donated their donations to China in the top of various countries.
However, the seemingly close cooperation in the early days still continued.Alex Azar, Minister of Health and Public Services, believes that China refuses to accept aid requests from the US experts, saying that China is not transparent enough and open.A spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs reflected in each other, saying that China had informed the situation to the United States from January 3, accusing the United States accusing the United States with explicitly stating that it did not claim that it would be excessive and excessive in response to the implementation of travel and trade restrictions on China.The retracement of overseas Chinese from China, upgrading the restrictions on travel -related travel in China, driving multiple countries to follow up, and relaxing with WHO demands, not kind enough.And as of early February, the United States did not provide substantial assistance.
From the perspective of online public opinion, the Chinese people's evaluation of the aid attitude of Japan and other countries is better than the United States.In fact, Japanese folk assistance to China does not have much United States.During the spread of the epidemic, American Senator Caton wrote to the White House, calling on all civil aviation flights to China.Caton also threw the virus as a conspiracy theory leaked in the Wuhan Lab, which attracted the refutation of the Herfenton Post.
The US House of Representatives passed the 2019 Tibet Policy and Support Act on January 28.On January 31st, a B-52H bomber from the US Air Force entered the Taiwan Fei Airlines Intelligence Zone cruise and implemented the continuous bomber settled mission.The US Secretary of State is non -stop, and first go to the UK to spend a decision to restore the British government to allow Huawei to provide non -core 5G equipment; then go to Central Asia to help the anti -China -China neighbors from China and Central Asia on the grounds of helping the epidemic from China.U.S. judicial organs also arrested Professor Charles Lieber, director of the Department of Chemistry and Chemistry, the Department of Chemistry and Chemistry of the famous scholars (later bail), on the grounds of secret participation in the programs of China.
Several incidents occurred before the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused the United States of danger. Although it needs to be investigated, it still shows that the Sino -US strategy is doubtful and the relationship is complicated.
China and the United States are closely connected and deeply embedded in the global network of economic globalization.The trade war has proven to be defeated.The US government's tariff measures have destroyed the global supply chain and increased the cost of consumer goods in the United States.The public health incident this time, as Professor Crugman, an American economist said, will not only crack down on China, but also affect US economic growth.No one can be outside.
Both China and the United States are large powers. As Kissinger said, they have the strength that cannot be defeated in the trade war.Starting from weakening strategic competitors, some US forces advocate to endure certain economic pains and hope to achieve the purpose of curbing China's development.They may hope that this emergencies can exacerbate China's economic operation pressure and further weaken China.But this cannot be achieved.
In the winter and spring of 2003, the SARS epidemic raged China.At that time, the Chinese economy was in a high -speed growth stage since 1995, with an annual growth rate of more than 10%.In the second quarter of 2003, the growth rate of growth suddenly dropped to 9.1%, but since the third quarter, China's economic rebound has increased by 10.4%, which has maintained the annual economic growth rate.Including the analysis of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, it is similar to that of Shas, and the current epidemic will have a greater impact on the Chinese economy in the short term, but it will not lead to its long -term growth trend.
It is worth noting that in 2003, China accounted for only 4%of the global GDP; by 2020, its share has increased to 17%.Bloomberg economists believe that this means that unlike Shas, if the Chinese economy declines, the global overflow effect will be greater.The first is the Asian neighbor of Asia, Japan, South Korea, the second EU country, and the United States.If the epidemic is controlled in the short term, most countries will be recovered from the second quarter, and the growth of the whole year will not be much affected.
The current economic growth of the world is weak and uncertain is lingering.Therefore, Sino -US cooperation resistance not only reflects humanitarian instincts, but also not only saves death, but also meets the needs of steady growth of countries including China and the United States and promotes development.The two China and the United States account for a quarter of the total world economy, and the responsibilities are particularly important.There are two benefits in combination, and there are two injuries in Dou. No one wants to see the crown disease epidemic, but it once again highlights the importance of cooperation between the two countries.
(The author is the executive deputy director of the Institute of Peace Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
