New Yinye
Cai Yongwei
China ’s inflation rate broke five in January this year, exceeding market expectations.The new coronary virus epidemic that has outbreak at the end of last year and the long Spring Festival holiday at the beginning of this year have been considered to be the main factor that promotes inflation over eight years, and it has also caused people to worry about the follow -up trend of prices.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China this Monday (10th), the National Residents' Consumption Price Index (CPI) increased by 5.4%compared with the same period last year, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from 4.5%in December last year.From a month -on -month perspective, the CPI in January turned from flat to 1.4%from December last year.
Food is the main factor to promote the overall price rise.Statistics show that food prices rose by 20.6%year -on -year, an increase of 3.2 percentage points, affecting CPI by about 4.1 percentage points.
Among them, the price of fresh vegetables rose 17.1%, the price of aquatic products rose 3.8%, and the price of eggs rose 2.4%. The price of beef, lamb, chicken and duck meat rose between 10.4%and 20.2%.
The price of pork, which has attracted much attention in recent times, has increased the largest increase. After almost doubled in December last year, it rose 116%year -on -year in January this year. It was the largest increase since 2007, affecting the CPI rose by about 2.76 percentage points.The current wholesale price is only 4%lower than the record high in November.
Prior to the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, people's impact on the normal demand for pork during the Spring Festival and the impact of overlay African swine fever had pushed pork prices to rise.After the outbreak, people's concerns about the shortage of pork supply have intensified, and they went to the supermarket to buy them, which further prompted the price of pork in the world's largest pork consumer.
Under the shroud of the new crown epidemic, traffic control in many places not only hinders the transportation of production materials such as feed, veterinary drugs, but also affects the return of farm staff, and then impacts the supply of pork.These transportation measures add difficulty to the pork itself and promote their prices.Some analysts predict that the price of pork will still be firm in the first half of this year.
In addition to pork, its main alternative to MDASH; MDASH; the supply of poultry meat is also affected by the new crown epidemic, and it has deteriorated due to the recent bird flu epidemic in some places.The price trend of poultry meat will also affect the price of pork, so it also causes market concerns.
However, most analysts have judged that high prices are only temporary phenomena, and as the promotion effect of food prices has gradually decreased, CPI is likely to reach its peak in last month.As people start to resume work, the supply chain will return to normal, the problem of insufficient supply caused by the epidemic will eventually alleviate, and the pressure of rising prices is expected to weaken.Moreover, the influence of price trends also include fluctuations in non -food prices, and the demand and price of catering, tourism, transportation and other products will become weak due to the outbreak of the epidemic, which will bring some relief to the overall price pressure.
But objectively, in the context of the epidemic prevention work is expected to continue for a while, the recovery of enterprise production will inevitably require a process, and the stability of market supply will take a while, so this will not be immediate on the role of stable prices.Taking Shas in 2003 as an example, the impact of the epidemic at the time was lagging behind.
In the same way, even if all kinds of anti -epidemic prevention measures are canceled after the epidemic is over, the recovery of market capacity and supply is likely to be unable to keep up with the recovery of demand, or it will bring up pressure on prices.Some analysts have expected that the inflection point where the price increase continues to fall may not appear until the second and third quarters of this year.
To be sure, the new crown epidemic has disrupted the supply and demand pattern of the Chinese consumer market and will also complicate the future trend of prices.Chinese senior management has been vigilant. Since this month, it has demanded several times to strive to stabilize the consumption of residents and accelerate the release of emerging consumption potential, including the development of online consumption and expanding health consumption.
From a more macro perspective, as the second largest economy in the world, if the imbalance in supply and demand in the Chinese market continues to intensify, it is not only domestic companies and consumers who need to face inflation.Probability event.
