The new type of coronary virus pneumonia spreading to China is still raging now. It is not only tested, not only the health and life safety of natural people, but also test the crisis response and control capabilities of a country.
Perhaps the crazy virus will be invisible and embarrassed under the resistance and anti -anti -royal group of the power of human beings, but the Chinese economic bureau after the epidemic raids may show some messy and crushing.It will definitely become the biggest policy test in China.
Because the new coronary virus is the same virus as the same virus and the transmission path is similar, the epidemic may cause the economic erosion. At presentCome to compare and judge.However, it must be emphasized that 18 years have passed, whether it is the proportion of the industry, the factor structure, or the driving force, and the external environment, the Chinese economy has evolved and changed large -scale.You can't say the same day as the Shas period.
For the Chinese service industry with large population liquidity and strong aggregation, the proportion of the Saus period in the composition of GDP (GDP) in China is only 41%, but it has risen to 59.4%. Therefore, as a pneumonia epidemicThe most serious sector, the post -ductoral force of the service industry will undoubtedly be greater.
Yes, catering, film and television entertainment, and commodity retail, now have the ability to decompose the risk decomposition of online sales, but the revenue and profit proportion of this part is still far from the climate for relevant Chinese companies, such as catering and beverage, such as catering and beverage, such as catering and beverage.Takeaway revenue is not 10%of the overall revenue of the company; although the glory of the game of the game reached 2 billion yuan (about 400 million yuan) on New Year's Eve, it is pre -collection with the box office of the Chinese Spring Festival movie of 7 billion yuan.It is not on the same horizontal line; similarly, the accounts can be called a meager VR (virtual) tourism and an offline Spring Festival tour package over 500 billion yuan, which cannot be compared.
According to the calculation of the Evergrande Research Institute, due to the most strongest Spring Festival in the history of the New Year's Eve, the closing of the restaurant and the freezing of the tourism market, the direct economic losses that these three industries have suffered during the Spring Festival Golden Week will exceed 1 trillionYuan Renminbi, pneumonia's epidemic infringement of the service industry, thus overwhelming the cruelty of China's economic growth, which cannot be imagined.
The epidemic overwhelming China's economic growth is difficult to imagine
It was also during the Shas period that because the epidemic was mainly concentrated in local areas such as Guangzhou and Beijing, the investment in fixed assets such as China's basic construction and the impact of manufacturing production was much smaller, and even the fixed asset investment of the epidemic situation of the year.Recorded a great harvest of 30%.
However, due to the stronger infectiousness and the factors of the Spring Festival, the pneumonia epidemic has spread to the whole country. The helpless city, road closure, and delay of the construction of the supplier are blocked, production, sales, return to return, return, returnNormal business activities such as models have also been severely disturbed. Infrastructure delay and stop work, and the suspension of production and production reduction of enterprises have become a large -scale normal.
In addition, the provincial regional linkage and industrial correlation of the provincial -level regional -level regional level are greatly enhanced. For example, Wuhan, as an electronics, automobiles, medicine and other industrial clusters, doubled the construction and logistics activities caused by other places.It is inevitable that the industrial chain companies outside Hubei are inevitable.That's why, the quarterly adjustment of infrastructure and manufacturing output after the epidemic will inevitably be inevitable.
It must be emphasized that in the entire industrial chain, due to the weak self -resistance risk ability, coupled with the background of trending decline, it is difficult to find new breakthroughs in fixed asset investment, especially enterprise investment.The pneumonia epidemic is even more cruel.
On the one hand, in the case of the interruption of the production factor supply chain, small and micro enterprises do not have the advantages of intelligent and continuous resources owned by large enterprises, so they have to face the legal risks of contract defaults and huge compensation;On the one hand, while the production and business shutdown and income and cash flow are interrupted, small and micro enterprises still have to bear a variety of economic losses, including rigid expenses such as rent, wages, and interest.Entering the desperate state of bankruptcy.
The very severe fact is that when the outbreak of the Shas broke out, China was on the outbreak of investment leading development models, and the economic rise cycle scene caused by the strong release of the demographic dividend, coupled with the export well sprayed by China shortly after the WTO, reflected the complexion of the exporting wells.In the current pattern of pneumonia's epidemic, China's economic growth has continued to fall on the basis of nine years, and there is still downlink pressure. The decreased effect of investment marginal effects has a decreased effect.In space, the high leverage of the residential department also restricts the extension of the consumption radius.
In addition, there is the narrowing of the global economic slowdown and the narrowing of the foreign trade environment, especially if the World Health Organization listed the new coronary virus epidemic situation as an internationally concerned public health incident, if the epidemic is not effective, it will not be ruled out without exclusionIn some countries and regions, due to the partition considerations of the Chinese epidemic, it will reduce or suspend goods from China's imports from China.The itinerary has a negative impact on China's import and export and foreign direct investment.In this case, the marginal impact of pneumonia's epidemic may be greater.
According to the point of view of authoritative experts, it must last 90 days after an outbreak of the virus before reaching the peak.After the crowd is expected to usher in the peak of outbreaks in the short term, the epidemic will have an inflection point in February, and will be significantly reduced in the next March, instead of lasting for half a year like Shas.
In contrast, the epidemic has occurred mainly in the first quarter of this year. It does not rule out the possibility of breaking the growth rate of GDP in the season. Due to the expansion of the epidemic, China ’s economic growth throughout the year is also a high probability that it is also a high probabilityAt the same time, in the scene of the outbreak of the epidemic, the pessimistic result of 2%of the annual GDP of the year, like the erosion of the Shas epidemic.
It is necessary to introduce and follow up in a very period.For the service industry and trapped enterprises that have a greater influence of the epidemic, the China Banking Regulatory Commission has issued a clear requirement to financial institutions that must not blindly draw, break loan, and loan.Lobricity, at the same time, down to reduce the inverse repurchase interest rate of 10 percentage points; the listed company and listed company in Hubei Province, which are at the epidemic center, also received support for the annual fee for listing exemption and annual fee.A discount for import tax.
However, these are obviously just emergency methods. After the epidemic, the subject of the macroeconomic and micro market entities fundamentally and long -term hemostatic and hematopoietic injuries require greatness and systematic optimization of policy tools. Especially in advance and increase monetary policy and financePolicies.
In terms of monetary policy, you can appropriately increase the relaxation caliber. For example, if the central bank is necessary to reduce interest rates and reduce interest rates in a timely manner, reduce the financing cost and financial burden of enterprises to the greatest extent, and encourage developing financial institutions and policy banks to discount, re -loan, and re -loan, and re -loan.Currency policy instruments such as mortgage supplementary loans provide supporting enterprises in the epidemic situation, while continuously guiding the downlink of the loan market quotation rate (LPR) of the commercial bank, and flexibly use the public market operating tools such as the convenience (SLF) and the medium -term borrowing facilities (MLF) and other public market operating tools, Maintain abundant liquidity supply.
Not only that, while generally cutting interest rates and restraints, it is also necessary to provide accurate and special credit convenience policy support for regions of severe epidemics, including encouragement but not compulsory financial institutions to implement lower differentiated interest rates.Enterprises with difficulty repayment will give the exhibition or renewal, and at the same time, the maximum time limit for the maximum time limit of personal entrepreneurial guarantee loans infected with new types of pneumonia will be increased, and the support of fiscal discounts will be increased.
Fiscal policy compared to currenciesIn terms of policies, there is a broader epidemic hedging space.On the one hand, the annual fiscal deficit rate of the Chinese government can be considered from 2.8%to 3%, that is, the increase of about 200 billion yuan in fiscal expenditure to avoid the crowding effect of the decline in fiscal revenue caused by the epidemic.Increase the transfer of transfer of transfers in areas of serious epidemic.
On the other hand, on the basis of further reducing the value -added tax and income tax, the income tax of the profit month of the enterprise is allowed to decrease the income tax period of the loss of the epidemic period.Serious regional enterprises introduced a comprehensive fiscal discount policy.
It must be emphasized that the service industry is not only the industry with the most severe infringement of pneumonia, but also the slowest industry after the epidemic, especially the three major industries of film and television entertainment, leisure tourism and catering accommodation.The three contributing to China's domestic GDP are as high as 20%.Therefore, the policy should be rationally tilted towards these severe disaster sectors and make special arrangements for special considerations.
In addition, small and micro enterprises, especially small and micro -service companies that have been impacted by the epidemic, should also be the top priority of policy protection and support, including phased interest on their stock and incremental loans.Duty -free and preferential treatment, and preferential subsidies in terms of social security, five insurances and one fund, etc., and allow enterprises to flexibly decide the employment system and salary policy according to their own operating conditions.
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