At present, a new type of coronary virus pneumonia is spreading violently across China, which has shocked China and the world for this, and various preventive measures have been upgraded.
As a result, the Chinese people had a strong atmosphere of the year, and they were completely stirred up: all travel agencies stopped sending groups, and all attractions were sold out. Although the shopping malls in major and medium -sized cities continued to open, they had more doorkeepers, and there were more salespersons than that of more than more salespersons.Customers; various restaurants are also rare for customers. The number of rewriting calls scheduled to have been scheduled earlier before the holiday has come to a distinctive contrast with a unspeakable grand occasion during the Spring Festival holiday in previous years.All museums, theaters, and other cultural places are closed to thank guests, and the scheduled performances will be refunded.
Many producers who originally launched new films for the Spring Festival market have been announced to the same way to reduce losses.Sports competitions have also been postponed, and international competitions that cannot be delayed or unable to change locations have taken very measures: empty field competitions, no tickets, no audience.Such a situation occurs when the relevant teams are seriously violated and they are severely punished.
The only busy and busy are all relevant hospitals, especially in Wuhan, where the epidemic occurred, the medical staff were seriously insufficient. Medical staff of various places and troops rushed to Wuhan around New Year's Eve and reached out to help.The hospital and bed in Wuhan also have a serious shortage, so that they can only temporarily assault new hospitals to respond.In addition, the manufacturers of masks, disinfectants and related drugs have already entered the Spring Festival holiday. They can only recall employees urgently and work overtime all night to meet the needs of anti -attack epidemic.
Now to analyze this sudden epidemic, it is obviously too early to summarize the extensive and profound influence of China's entire society, especially to summarize the serious lessons brought about by this epidemic.But one thing is obvious, that is, at least a short -term trend on the Chinese economy, which has a significant negative impact.Originally, although facing huge downward pressure, since December last year, a series of positive signals have appeared in the Chinese economy, which led to an optimistic emotion of relevant government departments and economists this year.Steading steadily, it is even expected to rise slightly.But just when the government and scholars expect the next Spring Festival market to add another piece of firewood to this, burns the fire of consumption a little bit more, this epidemic has suddenly disrupted the booked trend of the Chinese economy.
Originally, according to the traditional Chinese habits, the Spring Festival is the best time to go to relatives and friends. This is one of the important contents of the taste of the year.But in order to avoid infection this year, people can only stay at home, and there are also ridiculous paragraphs on the Internet: this year's Spring Festival does not make the door, only string the door to the door, from the living room to the kitchen, from the kitchen to the bedroom hellip; hell; in this way, even the cityPublic transportation in China was not spared. Citizens in the city worshiped the New Year through WeChat, and no one went out, so a large number of taxi drivers could only look at the epidemic and talk about it.
The Chinese tourism and consumer market during the Spring Festival holiday this year can only be described by bleak.During the Spring Festival last year, China's tourism revenue was more than 500 billion yuan (about 100 billion yuan), while catering and shopping consumption exceeded RMB 1 trillion.According to the development momentum of many years, especially with the increase of the disposable income of Chinese consumers year by year, the two major pieces have continued to maintain a growth momentum, which was completely logical.But under the fierce impact of Wuchang's epidemic, all this went with the wind.After the stock market opened, the tourism sector was hit hard, and many tourism stocks estimated that it would fall.Of course, the stock price of producers such as pharmaceutical companies and masks will benefit from this.
In addition, the corresponding hotel industry, airlines, and luxury goods will obviously be implicated, such as Japanese flights from Shizuoka to Wuhan.Not only Chinese companies, but many foreign -funded companies in China are also unavoidable.For example, the stock price of French Airlines, Hansha Airlines and British Airlines has previously fallen. Obviously, this epidemic has triggered concerns about Chinese tourists to cancel the travel plan during the Spring Festival.
Japan's Uniqlo and Yongwang Group's stores in all parts of China are also closed during the Spring Festival. Similarly, foreign companies that have been impacted are obviously far more than the two.Worried that this epidemic may crack down on consumers' expenditures during the Spring Festival, Louis Vuitton Group (LVMH), Kay Cloud Group (Kering), Hermes and Burberry, etc., have sold luxury goods in China with greater sales in China.The manufacturer's stock price also fell before.
Because Chinese tourists are the number one customer in Japan, the attractions from all over Japan have been rubbing their fists to receive more Chinese tourists during the Spring Festival.Other countries such as Thailand and other Chinese are rushing. Chinese tourists received by the Spring Festival this year have also fallen.
In addition, it is also a big problem when it can be restored after the festival. Recently, the State Council of the Chinese State Council has notified the Spring Festival holiday for three days, and the Shanghai Municipal Government announced that it will begin to work on February 10, which has reduced seven working days.Obviously it is not just Shanghai.Because they are worried that they will be infected on the way back to the city after the holiday, it is estimated that migrant workers will also postpone travel accordingly after the holiday, which will bring great uncertainties to the resumed production after the festival.out.
Not only is the relevant Chinese government departments and scholars, but the impact of this epidemic may pay close attention to the impact of China's economic trend, and the global financial market is also strengthening attention.Japan, Europe, and the United States, which opened on January 27, have fallen sharply in the same way. Obviously, this epidemic not only affects the country's economy, but also has a negative impact on the global economy trend. After all, China has contributed to global economic growth.The rate exceeds 28%.
Whether this worry can be relieved will depend on when the epidemic can be effectively controlled.According to Reuters on January 22, global investors are paying close attention and carefully evaluating its potential economic impact.In response, Reuters invited experts to review the impact of such epidemic epidemics on the global economy in the past.
Economist Victoria Middot; Fan, Dian Middot; Jamisen and Lawrence Middot; Summes said in a papers in 2017 that according to their assessment, the loss caused by epidemic risk is about $ 500 billion each year., Account for 0.6%of total global revenue.
Australian macroeconomicist Vorik Middot; McGimbin estimated in a paper that the global economic loss caused by SARS (SARS (atypical pneumonia) in 2003 was $ 40 billion.The International Aviation Transport Association estimated in an economic briefing in May 2006 that due to the outbreak of bird flu, GDP was reduced by 0.1%at that time.
According to reports from the US Broadcasting Corporation on January 22, relevant analysts said that the fatality of the new coronary virus seems to be low, so although it brings new uncertainty to the global market, it is not panic.Capital Economics, a senior economist of Capital Economics, Global Economic Research Corporation, said that the virus proliferation has obviously increased the risk of downlinks, but it still maintains an estimated estimation of this year's economy. They will continueHer close monitoring situation.
As for the impact of this epidemic on the Chinese economy, it is necessary to pay close attention to the relevant data released after the festival.
(The author is an associate researcher at the Shanghai International Institute of International Institute of International China)
