Society: The problem of re -election in Trump is not in the economy

Source: Taiwan Economic Daily Society

When the former US President Clinton was campaign in 1992, one of the main slogans proposed was stupid. The problem was the economy (ITS The Economy, Stupid); after the victory of Clinton, this sentence also became a mantra for the global political and economic people.Trump will be re -elected this year. Will the US economy become a barricade?The situation may be the opposite. It should be a fool. (If the re -election fails), the problem will not be economically.

First look at the most critical monetary policy.Many people think that the Federal Mandrill (FED) should not raise interest rates. Although this is not an iron law, the results of the Fed Federal Public Marketing Committee (FOMC) show that the current policy position of FED is neutral.Pigeon, after the meeting, and the chairman Ball's reporter's talks, revealed this kind of message.First of all, there is only one change after the meeting, that is, the assessment of family expenditure has grown from the previous strong growth to mild growth, and it is easy for people with eye -catching people to see the mystery.

Secondly, the FED has purchased 60 billion US dollar short debt every month from October last year. The reason for the public is to increase the water level of the bank's deposit reserve and ease the pressure of the short -term interest rate rising, rather than restore the quantitative loose (QE) policy to lower the low to lowerLong -term interest rates; but in the eyes of market participants, as long as FED smash money to buy debt, it is QE; once FED new funds enter the market, they can only guide and cannot interfere with the final flow.

Furthermore, the FED increased the interest rate of bank excess reserve deposits from 1.55%to 1.60%this time. It shows that the FED restores both the debt purchase, but also actively enables the two -pronged approach to operate the operation.The risk of short -term interest rates has soared again; but Fed continues to purchase debts at least before the end of June, so that the financial market has eaten peace of mind.

Ball also mentioned that the outbreak of the new coronal virus may affect economic growth, and reiterates that the FED is concerned that the US inflation rate has been lower than 2%of the target; the interest rate futures trend also shows that the market expects that the chance of FED may cut interest rates by 1 yard will increase slightly this year.Therefore, it will be a boring year for FED in 2020. The most likely situation is that the interest rate will not change;Further relaxation.

Look at economic performance again.Although the confidence of the company's supervisor has fallen to a low point in the past ten years and the investment is weak, the unemployment rate that voters are most concerned about are still only 3.5%. It is a low of 50 years.Increased by 3%, the inflation rate is still less than 2%, and the substantive salary maintains positive growth.

Since Trump took office, his economic performance can be poor. The main momentum is not tax cuts and loosening regulations to inspire enterprise investment, but to rely on government expenditure to continue to height; the Congress agrees to expand public expenditure to stimulate economic growth.More than three times more than Obama.In 2020, Trump was ready to sprinkle money, and the Democratic Party also joined forces.In May this year, the federal government will implement a census once a ten -year population. It is estimated that 400,000 temporary personnel will be hired, and the market will oil the fire.Therefore, if the US election in 2020 is still a load election, it will be quite beneficial to Trump's re -election.

Trump's most controversial trading policy so far has risen from tightly since the end of last year.The United States and China have signed the first -stage trade agreement, and the second phase of negotiations will also be launched; the US -Mexico -Canada new agreement has been signed recently, and the US -Europe trade conflict also has a slow signal.Although Trump's previous trading policies were repeated, especially the US -China negotiations, he was a businessman after all, and all policies and operations were for re -election.Although the economic growth of the United States has only maintained a long -term trend level, it is still admitted to the development of the world's cattle; instead of making waves, it is far better than Ying Baotai.

According to the latest polls of the monthly election of the Financial Times and the Peterson Foundation, 51%of the respondents believe that Trump's policy has brought a strong support for the economy, and since this investigation has been done in October last year,The ratio of supporting the Trump administration's economic performance has continued to rise, while low interest rates, improvement of housing markets, and strong stock markets may be the reason why voters are optimistic about economy.

Trump has both loose monetary policy to protect and escort. Strong employment can at least meet the minimum requirements of voters Xiao Zhenxing. Consumption will maintain a moderate economic growth, and the trade war will temporarily cease fire. ThereforeHis hind legs.