Cai Yongwei: Will Wuhan fly out of the economic ＂black swan＂?

The personnel department sent an email to all employees the day before yesterday that as the Singapore government announced the strengthening of preventive measures to respond to the spread of the new crown virus, the company also launched the established alert measures accordingly, including all employees who have arrived in mainland China in the past 14 days and returned to Singapore to return to Singapore.After that, you must apply for a 14 -day absence.

I still remember that during the outbreak of type A influenza in 2009, Singapore also promoted the absence of the fake system.At that time, the government also improved the level of early warning of the epidemic. One of the key measures of the company was to divide the business into two operations. According to this, the newspaper was preparing to part the editor into two groups.Go to work.Later, the influenza epidemic was relieved, the government reduced the level of warning, and the company decided to put on holding the plan to operate separately. We did not need to move.

Earlier in the 2003 SARS period, the epidemic was serious.I later listened to my colleagues who have not joined the job. At that time, a good part of the newspaper had to leave the headquarters to work in another office. It was indeed difficult to operate in both ends in the early stage.Harmony is inevitably affected.

At that time, many companies also took similar measures to reduce the risk of infection in such a very important period, resulting in human shortage, increasing administrative pressure, and decreased operating efficiency. Many employees had to work overtime.Increased, the business was affected to a certain extent and impacted the development of the overall economy.

The development of the new crown virus epidemic is still unknown, but if the epidemic continues to spread, Singapore will take more stricter measures similar to Shace's period. It is probably only a matter of time, and the economy will undoubtedly be further frustrated.

In fact, in the nearly a month after the outbreak of Wuhan epidemic, other countries and regions have been affected, especially in industries related to tourism, because China has canceled domestic tour groups in the traditional tourist season of the Spring Festival.

Some American hotels that occupy a large market share in China such as Marriott, Hyatt, and Hilton are the first time, and their stock price has fallen by more than 6%in the past week.

The impact of the Wuhan epidemic was also overflowing to the global market. The stock markets fell severely after the Spring Festival holiday, while international crude oil prices continued to undergo pressure.

Of course, its economic losses are not small in Wuhan in the epidemic.As an important economic engine in central China, about 230 of the world's top 500 companies invest in Wuhan.

Wuhan is also a major town of China's automobile industry. Many of the world's largest multinational car companies have factories there, including Peugeot Citroen, General Motors, Nissan, Honda, etc.Some analysts estimate that these factories have stopped production in the Spring Festival. Due to the deterioration of the epidemic during the vacation, the production line may continue to be interrupted, which may drag the automobile industry and even the overall industry in Wuhan.

Wuhan has also become the world's largest isolation zone after the city sealing. The United States, France, Japan and South Korea, such as the United States, France, and South Korea have or may withdraw from Wuhan. Many multinational companies have banned employees from working in Hubei, which will inevitably defeat the local economy.

Many Chinese cities outside Hubei have also adopted various flow control measures in order to resist epidemic, which not only closed the main roads, but also reduced various aggregate activities. It also closed the main tourist attractions and entertainment venues.Moreover, when the outbreak of the epidemic is the most important holiday in China during the Spring Festival, the impact of these anti -epidemic measures on the domestic consumer market can be imagined.

As a result, the number of Chinese railways and civil aviation passenger transportation fell by 40%at the beginning of the new year; the stocks of many airlines fell, and the market value of China Oriental Airlines evaporated 13%within a week;The box office fell by 90 % on the first day.

Some market participants are therefore worried that the new crown virus may become the first economic black swan this year, and evaluate this emergencies that exceed people's expected emergencies will seriously disturb the economic development of China and the world. After all, China is now the world's second largest economy.And the economic structure has been inclined to the consumption and service industry, and the integration of the world economy has also been deepened.

Furthermore, the Chinese economy is currently facing a lot of downlink pressure. It is different from the overall rising cycle of the overall rising period of the Shats period.In the fourth quarter of last year, 6%fell to less than 5%of the first quarter of this year, which in turn impacted the global economy.

However, some people are also optimistic that although the impact of the new crown virus may be serious, Chinese officials have drawn from Shas and accumulated rich anti -epidemic experience.The impact of the second epidemic will be short -lived.

In any case, it is certain that the new crown virus epidemic will eventually pass, but before this day, whether it is the residents of Wuhan and even the mainland, or the people of the world thousands of miles away, everyone’s daily work and life will be affected.The economy will inevitably be impacted.

Whether the black swan worried about some public opinion will eventually fly out of Wuhan, which will depend on the duration and severity of the epidemic. The key is how the governments in China and the world have short -term epidemic and long -term epidemic prevention.