The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Holy City Brigade commander Suleimani and the Iranian military commander Mahdi at the Iranian Armed Commander Maldi suffered a U.S. UAV attack at the Baghdad Airport. The incident reflected that Trump did not play cards according to common sense and resolved international contradictions for individuals.And the work with limited use.
The current American crisis has the following background: First, that is the continuation of the conflict between different religious civilization; 2. After the Iranian Islamic revolution overthrew the Pakatani dynasty supported by the United States, the new regime was cleaned in the country and the monarchy and pro -Western forces.The two countries have not resumed diplomatic relations between the two countries to occupy the embassy in Iraq and the arrest of US diplomats.After the Second Iraq war, Iran, as the main country of Islam, hopes to expand its influence in Iraq and other countries.
Fourth, the Trump administration withdrew from the Iraqi nuclear agreement reached with the negotiations for a long time and strict economic sanctions on Iran.Fifth, the United States and other Western countries do not want any political strong people who do not listen to the West.Iranian Islamic Republic's political education cooperation, the regime is consolidated, and the West is also unwilling to accept such a regime.
The assassination of Suleimani has intensified the contradictions of the United States and Iraq, the Iranian government has retaliated, and millions of people in China have participated in the ranks of Sulemani's outbound, but unfortunately tramples and causes 56 people to die.The passenger plane caused 176 people to be killed.The series of accidents have shifted international attention, and the passive situation of the Trump administration was reversed for a while.
So far, the Iranian crisis has the following inspiration:
I. Iranian officials responded to the United States' reaction to the assassination of Sulemanni after the United States withdrawing from the nuclear agreement. Iranian missiles attacked the US military base, and may have follow -up.Not only did the American allies complain, even the US Democratic Party and other anti -war people strongly oppose the terrorist behavior of the Trump authorities.
Second, dealing with emergencies is not the same as daily governance. In particular, it is necessary to respond to timely, and it can also test the government's governance capabilities.When TV broadcasts of millions of people in Iran participated in anti -American demonstrations and Sulemanni's outlets, the audience also worried that accidents such as people stepped on or enemies could occur in addition to the people of Iranian people and their enemies.Unfortunately, such things did happen.It seems that Iran, as many developing countries, improves national governance capabilities.
3. Supporting the current system is the mainstream of Iranian society, and domestic pro -Western forces also exist. Those people always express themselves stubbornly at appropriate time.During this crisis, it is not difficult to notice that Iranian society is not a iron plate.
The Trump administration withdraws from the Iranian nuclear agreement is the beginning of the Iranian crisis, and the crisis also revealed the following issues:
I. For the personal purpose of winning the re -election, Trump uses US state power to fight or even assassinate foreign dignitaries, and put pressure on other countries at the same time to transfer domestic vision at the same time.Through science and technology and personnel to collect intelligence, and then use drones to accurately kill the enemy, reflect the superb military technology and strength of the United States, and achieve a real record at a small price.
By the way, in the Arabian Sea, the head of the Russian warships almost hit a U.S. warship's tail.Although the two warships are different, it is also a way for Russians to send a strong signal at a small price.
Second, Trump was sold cheap and sold well. After the anti -government demonstration in Iran, he said that he was standing with the Iranian people.It shows that the United States also uses its soft power. The possibility of its agents' involvement in local group incidents should not be excluded, that is, not only collects information, but also engage in heart war, but also to fight against the domestic opposition to the country and engage in the activities of dividing enemy countries.
The above -mentioned precise strikes and full use of other countries will be the main tool for the future of the United States to the Islamic countries in the future. Americans may also use those two tools to deal with other countries in the future.
3. Iran wants US forces to leave Iraq and the Middle East, while the United States is unwilling to sit in Iran.At present, the Trump administration is reluctant to give Iraq to Iran. The focus of the struggle with Iran under the rule of the United States under Trump is Iraq. The ending of the struggle between the two sides determines the future of Iraq.
Fourth, many Westerners do not deny that the US national strength is declining; in the face of this reality, Trump has the tendency of isolationistism, and it is the slogan of his voting for the greatness of the United States.External image.
Trump wants to shrink the United States to distribute in the world's front and concentrate its strength to deal with China. It is the long -term goal of the United States.However, there are too many U.S. enemies in the world, such as Russia, North Korea, Islamic world, etc. The contraction front will mean that the United States will withdraw behind the enemy.In the eyes of ordinary Americans, it is not to make the United States great again.Therefore, the United States has to use the defeat of those enemies as its short -term goal.But in this way, the short -term and long -term goals in the United States are inconsistent, and the contradiction between the two will even be structural.
V. The comprehensive national strength and governance ability of Iran and the United States are asymmetric. There are not many good cards that Iran can play in the short term, but the U.S. military will not last in Iraq.The ending of the game between the two sides.
The crisis of the United States and Iei will greatly inspire North Korea, and it is estimated that the US -DPRK negotiations are more difficult to restart.The rise of China, Russia's re -armed forces, and the trend of centrifugal and American and the United States reflect the transformation of the world's righteousness, and the US -Iran crisis will promote the world's polarization process.
(The author is a senior Hong Kong commentator)
