Hugging in the United States is not enough to take off the Taiwan economy

Source: Hong Kong 01

The Tsai Ing -wen government has become more and more tightened in Taiwan's economic policies in Taiwan in the past few years, and the most obvious of which is the most obvious approval of free approval.Since Tsai Ing -wen was elected as the president, the cross -strait relations turned a deterioration, and tourists from the two places were severely hit.According to statistics from the Taiwan Tourism Bureau, after the peak of 4.18 million people in 2015, mainland tourists have increased their annual growth. By 2017, there were only 2.73 million people, a sharp fall of 35%in two years.Cross -strait relations have deteriorated due to the storm of anti -repair in Hong Kong. In August last year, the mainland announced the suspension of application for free travel in Taiwan.If the approval is not resumed, travelers in the mainland may return to zero after February this year.Although there are actually passengers going to Taiwan according to other channels, and the lectures to zero are a bit exaggerated, it is beyond doubt about the crackdown on Taiwan's tourism industry.

Outside of tourism, the mainland is also reducing imported Taiwanese goods.According to data from the Taiwan Trade Bureau, the goods exported to the mainland and Hong Kong in the first 10 months of last year were US $ 107.65 billion, a decrease of 6.4%.Of course, the Sino -US trade war has a certain impact on this with the slowdown of the global economic slowdown, but last year, the imports of imports in the mainland still increased by 1.6%.Cause.

Taiwan is an export economy, and economic activities rely on foreign trade data to a large extent. The economic blockade of mainland China has a significant blow to its economy.In this case, the Cai Yingwen government has to find a way out of the mainland, and then launched a new southbound policy in 2016, hoping to develop the Southeast and South Asian markets.The initial effect of the policy was quite obvious. In 2017, the imports and exports of Taiwan's 10 countries in Asia have risen by about 14%.However, the policy was unsustainable. In 2018, Taiwan's exports to the 10 countries of Asia to Asia decreased slightly by less than 1%, and in 2019, it fell 7.24%.The trade surplus with Asians has also shrunk further in the past two years, from $ 27.5 billion to 18.9 billion (31.3%).More importantly, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) leading the mainland is expected to sign an agreement in 2020, and it will have a greater blow to Taiwan's new southbound policy.The signing of the country includes the Asianan country, Australia, New Zealand, etc. referred to the Xinnan direction policy, as well as countries such as Japan that have important economic and trade relations with Taiwan.After signing, exclude Taiwan outside the agreement will have greater tariffs and non -tariff barriers, which is more unfavorable to its development.

Under the dilemma of suffering without breakthroughs, it is an inevitable choice to turn in Taiwan to rely on the United States.With Trump's onto and the fierce wrestling of China and the United States, Taiwan has happened to become one of the important tools for the United States to use to fight against mainland China.As the United States frequently hit Taiwan to restrain mainland China, many people have begun to look forward to the United States' breakthroughs in Taiwan's economic development.

The Sino -US trade war has undoubtedly brought some opportunities to Taiwan.In 2018, Taiwan's exports to the United States have increased by 7.4%; the first October last year was 17.7%, and the trade surplus expanded by more than 90%.Moreover, Taiwan and the United States are discussing the Free Trade Agreement (FTA), and the situation is positive. Once signed, it may be greater help.But in reality, Taiwan relies on the role of the United States to be limited.The data of Taiwan and the United States in the overall trade of Taiwan and the United States belong to only a small part, only about 10%in the long run. Even if a lot of additions are 13%, the trade between Taiwan and the mainland is more than 20%or more), Double the difference.More importantly, the mainland accounts for a larger export of Taiwan, bringing a huge trade surplus to Taiwan, which is far more important than the United States.The goods exported from Taiwan to the mainland are close to 30%of its total exports (including Hong Kong more than 40%), but exports to the United States are only about 14%; and Taiwan's trade surplus to the mainland (calculated in November last year) is even more than last year).4.8 times to the United States (the trade surplus to the mainland and Hong Kong in the first October 2019 is 6.2 times to the United States).

To do business is to eat square meals. Taiwan and the United States have enhanced economic and trade cooperation. However, when Taiwan decided to choose a side station in China and the United States, they are willing to become a pawn of the United States against mainland China, which will easily take care of it.In terms of geopolitical conditions, the importance of Taiwan -US relations is impossible to get on cross -strait relations, let alone the Asian region that accounts for 70 % of Taiwan's trade volume.From a data point of view, Taiwan's economic dependence on the United States is indeed limited.Moreover, under the preferred policy of the United States, how much substantial economic discounts can bring to Taiwan can also be doubtful.Trump is often a trade surplus of allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Europe. If Taiwan develops its export to the United States, it will also make itself the next target that may be targeted.With the increase in Taiwan -US trade surplus, the calculation of US data has exceeded $ 20 billion. Therefore, the exchange rate policy report announced by the Ministry of Finance announced in the middle of this month has included Taiwan's exchange rate manipulation monitoring list.It should not be forgotten that when the US exchange rate manipulation list was just set up in 1988, Taiwan was the first tariff area for labels.

Some Taiwanese people and Hong Kong people who are concerned about Taiwan even more exaggeratedly believe that the Taiwan economy can take advantage of the Sino -US wrestling opportunity. It is quite a big gap with reality by holding the big feet in the United States.In recent years, many people in Taiwan have not been pursuing economic development and advocated that they are lucky, reflecting that many people have recognized the economic reality, understand that there is a cost of turning in cross -strait relations, and it is not a way out to hold the American thighs.Rather than putting its own destiny on others, Taiwan needs to reflect on how to make its own economy sustainable.Hong Kong people who look at the situation in Taiwan across the shore must also recognize reality and do not have too practical fantasies about the United States.