What does Chinas ＂exchange rate manipulation country＂ reflected?

01 Viewpoint

The US Ministry of Finance announced on Monday (13th) to announce the semi -annual exchange rate policy report, stating that China should no longer be listed as a exchange rate manipulator, and it should be listed as a manipulating country for half a year from August last year.From US President Trump's pop -up rate of China's exchange rate, it is not difficult to see that the concept of exchange rate manipulation country is like a political tool, and the technical composition contains is very small.The use of the brand of the United States to manipulate the country as a political tool is just a kind of state. Even if the label of the exchange rate manipulation is now removed, it may still be able to suppress China in the future.

The US persistence against exchange rates came from the time when the US cargo trade gradually changed from the overall surplus to the deficit in the 1970s.American politicians believe that US trade data from positive to negative is due to the unfair treatment of other countries in US trade, including collecting higher tariffs or other tariff trade barriers than the United States, or intentionally lowering the exchange rate order from the national level.Its goods are more competitive.In 1974, the U.S. Congress passed the Trade Law. The super 301 clause allowed the government to investigate the areas with major trade deficit, and required it to reduce the relevant trade deficit through negotiations or tariffs.The comprehensive trade and competitive law passed in 1988 added the mechanism of exchange rate control countries based on the trade law.The U.S. government must review it year by year. Some regions with huge trade deficit in the United States have deliberately lowered the value of the country's currency against the US dollar through manipulating the exchange rate, causing competitive advantages unfairly.

Terms from the 1970s

Before the launch of these policies, in fact, many economists have pointed out that the most fundamental cause of the deficit in the US cargo trade is not the unfair trade referred to by these terms, but more structural MDASH; MDASH; US salary is better than the world than the world.Too much higher.According to the most primitive and simple natural economic theory, despite the fair trade of goods trade, the United States will also have a trade deficit.After decades, the US trade deficit has increased almost every year. Objective facts show that these ideas all over the world's unfair trade on the United States will not help improve the problem of changing their wanting to change.

Trump quoted Trump two years ago to launch the Sino -US trade war, and even listed China as a exchange rate manipulator, which is not very different from the situation in the past few decades.However, these clauses are only for the fate of the wood, and there are no problems that correctly target the US trade deficit. Continue to use these clauses can naturally not change this situation.Since the trade war, various data have explained that the tariffs have not reached the effect claimed by Trump to popularize its trade consultant.

Objective definition of exchange rate manipulation

As a world's superpower, it is impossible to think about the problem for decades.Obviously, whether trade is unfair, and whether the exchange rate is manipulated is often not the point. The so -called unfair trade has become a political tool.The label of the exchange rate manipulating country is an example.According to the 2015 trade facilitation and trade law enforcement bill, the exchange rate manipulates three clear indicators of the state:

1. The trade surplus of bilateral goods to the United States is not less than $ 20 billion;

Second, the frequent account surplus is not less than 2%of GDP; and

Third, at least 6 months have been repeatedly bought foreign exchange within 12 months, and the total amount of foreign exchange for net purchase in 12 months accounted for at least 2%of its GDP.

China is in line with the first item of objective definition, but the second and third items are not in line.The United States ignored the fact that China did not meet the standards last August and listed China as a exchange rate manipulator. It is generally believed that Trump is intending to pressure China in the trade war.How has China changed in the RMB policy in the past six months, so that the United States believes that China is no longer a exchange rate manipulator?Rather than changing the Chinese monetary policy, this is more obvious to pave the way for the first phase of the agreement between the two countries.

The political operations of the United States with objective definitions of exchange rate manipulation countries such as moving the dragon gate, which shows that the United States resort to various means to restrain China.Although China and the United States will soon sign the trade agreement in the first stage, the wrestling of the two is likely to continue for decades. In the future, China will still face the United States to suppress it in more different names.In addition to doing a good job of its own development, it will be the key to the future in the future with other countries to re -develop a set of world order with objective standards.