Scholars: US -China cease fire or reshaping global economic relations

Source: Taiwan Economic Daily

Associate Professor Christopher Balnding, an associate professor at the University of Fugleblyt, Vietnam, said that the first phase of trade agreements to the United States and China, coupled with the reduction of the US -China deficit and the chain effect, may redefine global economic relations.

Berin wrote in Bloomberg Information that because Trump has always used a huge trade deficit in the United States and China, as the main reason to launch a trade war, and the US -China deficit drama in 2019 decreased by nearly 20%, Trump shouldQuite satisfied.However, due to the changes in the trade war in the United States and China, the trade income and expenditure of various countries can also reshuffle the global economic relations, and even some countries have turned from beneficiaries to victims.

When China joined the WTO (WTO) in 2001, the United States' global deficit distribution was actually quite scattered. Although the deficit continued to increase, it was far more concentrated than before.According to the statistics of the US Census, the proportion of the US -China deficit in 2018 accounted for 48%of the total US deficit, much higher than 19%in 2000 and 10%in 1990.

These data parts reflect that some industries have shifted from other emerging economies into China.However, in recent years, as China's cost structure has risen rapidly, some companies have considered evacuating China, and Trump's tariff measures have also accelerated this process.From January to November last year, the Sino-US trade surplus drama decreased by 16%, while the total US deficit was reduced by 2%during the same period.In other words, the deficit of the United States expanded to countries outside China, while Vietnam and Mexico are the beneficiaries of the US -China trade war.

On the other hand, China's total surplus to countries outside the United States reached 98 billion US dollars, far exceeding US $ 27 billion in 2018, and China ’s surplus to Asia, Europe and Africa also continued to expand.Boltin pointed out that China's new surplus distribution may change its attitude towards China.

Although the US -China trade war has always been a hot news, China's largest trading competitors are actually other low -income countries.In order to meet its own US dollar needs and cause these countries to fall into the deficit, countries will not be able to benefit from the trade war.Eurasian countries will face China's management trade policy more directly, so they will be dissatisfied with Trump like Trump.

No matter how many disadvantages in the United States, because the United States is willing to become the ultimate destination of consumer goods and has a deficit in most countries, it is still welcomed by some difficult countries.China will be more and more difficult to get friends and influence partners because of the forcing countries to fall into a deficit.When countries have broken the dreams of China's exports, they may not pay less attention to Beijing's pressure and are unwilling to talk about China's economic development model.

As other Chinese trading partners are becoming more dissatisfied with China, the Trump administration can open up an open market for friendly countries willing to accept US standards to reverse the US -China trade game.However, whether the Trump administration is willing to take such measures is still an unused day.