For many years, people have always been good for Sino -US relations, and it is not much good to describe the complexity and relationships of relations between Sino -US relations, but few people may say so today.Some observers have noticed that according to this, Sino -US relations are not good, but only worse possibilities.
Discussions on the Cold War of the China and the United States have been in the past, almost a conclusion, and more and more people believe that the Cold War between the United States and the United States has begun.Now people are concerned about the Cold War between the two countries.In addition to referring to the experience of the Cold War of the United States and the Soviet Union, it also requires great imagination.If the nuclear war is impossible, but the agent war inevitably stipulates the process of the Cold War of the United States and the Soviet Union. Will this happen between China and the United States?
Not only that, people have recently discussed whether Sino -US relations will evolve into a situation like European World War II.Dr. Kissinger warned twice that if China and the United States conflict, the situation would be worse than destroying the World War II of the European civilization.Former US President Obama also believes that Sino -US relations are now similar to the situation before World War II.If it is the situation of World War II, pointing to the hot war between China and the United States.Of course, the theory of hot war is not fresh.
Since the 1990s, China and the United States must have the argument of World War I, at least in the West.In recent years, many people have been discussing the similarities between Sino -US relations and World War I. The core problem is that the highly economic and trade dependence between China and the United States caused by economic globalization can prevent the conflict between the two countries from conflicting conflicts between the two countries.And war?
Which model will Sino -US relations be expanded
What models will Sino -US relations happen and expand in?To what extent will China -US relations be bad?Here we discuss why the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, and the World War II between European countries still had a reference significance.
Simply put, the US -Soviet relations are presented in the cold war, because the Cold War is the most rational choice between the two countries.At that time, as far as the US -Soviet relations were concerned, there was no close cooperation.Although in World War II, the United States and Soviet stood on the anti -fascist side, but did not form an alliance in any sense.There is no economic and trade relationship like China and the United States today, or cooperative relationships like China and the United States today.
To a large extent, both countries are military powers rising in the war.According to the logic of the military power, the two countries have evolved into a military expansion group after the end of World War II.Therefore, as soon as World War II ended (not even end), the two sides began to create their efforts of their respective military groups.There is no organic connection between the two major groups. In today's words, there is never a linked to show a complete decourse state. Therefore, the Cold War is inevitable and is also the best choice between the two countries.
Why do European countries with close economic and trade relations have happened and World War II?Simply put, it is precisely because of the close economic and trade connection and the relationship between the country and the country is intricate. When the effective measures to solve the problem, conflict and war have become an effective solution.At that time, internal populist movements and external nationalist movements were rising in European countries.On the one hand, it is because they depend on each other and do not have the conditions like the US -Soviet Cold War. On the other hand, because countries are extremely selfish and hurt each other, the result is to solve the problem by a hot way.
If today's Sino -US relations are compared with the relationship between the US -Soviet relations and the relationship between the European countries of the year and the World War II, it is not difficult to see that today’s Sino -US relations have both the characteristics of the US -Soviet Cold War, but also the relationship between European countries in World War IIspecialty.
The Cold War between China and the United States seems to have become a statement of conclusion.The United States has obviously launched the Cold War from various aspects, including science and technology, education, and ideology.The performance of ideology is particularly obvious, including Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, which shows a comprehensive attack.U.S. military actions should not be underestimated, especially the upgrade of Taiwan's military relations because it involves China's core national interests.
However, because China and the United States are large nuclear powers, the possibility of large -scale direct warfare is not high.Although from the perspective of the United States, China's nuclear technology is far from being unable to keep up with the United States, as long as China has the second nuclear counterattack ability, it still has enough deterrent to the United States.Another question is whether the two countries will use nuclear weapons once the war burst?It is not meaningless to raise this problem, because the United States has used nuclear weapons to Japan in history.
Although people believe that the war between the two nuclear powers will destroy the entire world, once the war broke out, the rationality at that time was very different from the rationality of the peace era.Once one party is morally demonized the other side, the other party is the demon, and what kind of weapons use are reasonable.There was a threat of nuclear war during the Cold War of the United States and the Soviet Union, but in the end, it did not happen. Because the two countries had a nuclear weapon competition at the time, the nuclear level reached a balanced state. Both sides believed that no one would defeat anyone, so he chose to maintain a deterrent state.
The current problem is that the state of China and the United States dependence on each other will promote the outbreak of war between the two countries or to prevent the outbreak of war?If the economy's mutual dependence does not prevent the war between European countries, people should not only completely ignore the possibility of the Sino -US war, but also must be more concerned, because European countries are the same civilization after all, and there are too many between China and the United States, and there are too many between China and the United States.Differences.
Two conditions make it difficult for China and the United States to be completely decoupled
So far, the economic and trade relations between China and the United States are in a process of decoupling.Although people are reluctant, the decoupling process is also a painful process for both parties, but after all, the decoupling happens.If the decourse process becomes too painful, will one or both parties help the force method to solve the problem?This is also a problem that can be discussed.
Since the Battle of the Free Trade, the United States thought that China would succeed soon and achieve the goals it set, but the situation was not the case.As the world's second largest economy, China's economy has shown huge toughness, and the nationalist emotions of the people have also risen.The United States is constantly pressured, and everything is used. The conflict between the two countries has greatly surpassed the trading field, and the comprehensive expansion has been expanded to other fields. What's more, the United States continues to deteriorate Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Xinjiang, and to Chinapressure.
So far, China has shown rationality and tries to do their best not to link these problems with trade issues.The problem is that whether it is leaders or the public, China cannot concession infinitely. Once it touches China's red line, China will inevitably make the most effective counterattack.Those who do not like China or disregard the interests of China for ideological or other reasons will eventually be misleading themselves and others.
In terms of decoupling, the situation is actually not so bad.Relative decoupling is inevitable. The result of decoupling will make China and the United States a two relatively independent economies.But as long as there are two conditions, it is difficult for these two economies to completely decide and evolve into past US -Soviet relations.These two conditions are: first, the United States is still a capitalist country; second, China continues to implement an open policy.As long as the United States is still a capitalist country, the logic of capital will not be completely invalid, and the role of capital in international politics will not be missing.
In terms of interests, it is difficult for American capital to abandon the Chinese market.The strength of the United States lies in its market, and China's strength is also its market.If the United States is forced to be decoupled by political, administrative and national security methods, and abandon the Chinese market, it will not only cost high, but also in the long run.Even if the United States has abandoned the Chinese market, it is difficult to force the entire West to do so.The logic of capital is flowing, flowing to all favorable places.China's continued open policy is certain.
In fact, the contemporary Chinese economy developed in a global state and was an open economy.There is no reason to close itself again.Judging from the efforts of Chinese leadership over the years, China's economy will only become more and more open and internationalized.Even if China and the United States conflict, China's open policy and economic internationalization will continue.People should not forget that the United States has really risen in two world wars, and has achieved internationalization in the process of war.Once China and the United States conflict, China will return to the closed assumption, and it is likely to be proved to be unreasonable.of.
In this way, the problem becomes: If the possibility of conflict between China and the United States (especially the nuclear war) is extremely low, what kind of conflict may occur between the two?People pointed to the local conflict, or agent conflicts, or even war during the Cold War of the United States and the Soviet Union.In reality, the possibility of this conflict in China and the United States is even higher than that of the United States and the Soviet Union.The US -Soviet agent war is more manifested in the expansion of the geopolitical politics of the two countries, that is, the conflict between the two major countries in the process of expanding their geopolitical space.
The situation in China is very different, and it is more manifested as the defender of the interests of the core national.China does not have an expansion of ambitions or plans like the Soviet Union, and it is difficult to imagine that China and the United States will conduct an agent war in Africa or the Middle East.If expansion can be avoided, China's protection of its core interests is righteous, and no political party or social group can abandon the core interests of the country.
Compared with the United States, China has a special geopolitical pattern.There are two oceans around the United States, which only baptize with two countries, and China is different. There are dozens of countries in the surroundings.China's core interests are within such a pattern, including Hong Kong, Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet, and South China.
For the United States, these places are agents. For China, these places are the core interests of the country.No one can guarantee that the United States will not conduct agent wars in the Taiwan and South China Sea issues, and no one can guarantee that China will make concessions on these core interests.In fact, the United States' intervention on Hong Kong issues has appeared in the phenomenon of agent resistance.The upgrading of military relations in the United States and Taiwan is a sign of danger.
The South China Sea is more and more like Asian gunpowder barrels.The logic of the South China Sea issue is: countries with conflict with China need the United States to balance China, and the United States needs these countries to fight against China, while China will not give up its core interests for any reason.This is also the logic of the agent war.
Taking the desire to curb conflicts
All these development development must continue to be observed, but people cannot rule out the power given by human rationality.In view of the huge common interests of China and the United States, if both countries are rational, the world is peaceful; if one of them is unreasonable, it will be noisy; if both countries are dominated by emotions, the world will be dangerous.
The relationship between the two countries today is largely dominated by emotions. These emotions do not come from rationality, but from prejudice, ideology or hatred for no reason.If rational returns, the peace coexistence between the two countries will become the main axis.Peace does not mean that there is no conflict, but it means that the two sides can curb the desire of conflict and resolve conflicts by virtue of rationality.
After huge efforts, the staged trade negotiations between the two countries have made substantial progress.Although it is still uncertain in the future, in the case of the deterioration of the relationship between the two countries, any form of trade agreement has extraordinary significance, at least driving people to the common interests of the two countries.If rationality is dominant, it is also possible for the two countries to reach a comprehensive trade agreement because it is in line with the interests of both parties.
China has its own civilized thinking about its own international status, that is, not challenging the US hegemony, and consciously avoiding the situation of national strength.This is not only because of human subjective will, but also because of the restrictions on the special geopolitical conditions of China.On the contrary, for the Chinese, at the international level, there are too many common interests between China and the United States to pursue.China does not believe that any country (including itself) can dominate the world alone, nor does it believe that the United States can always dominate the world, and China will have its own role to play.
As far as the United States is concerned, objectively speaking, challenges to its international status are not as good as from China.Today's problems in the United States are mainly confidence.The United States is still strong in many aspects, including economic and corporate systems, markets, military strengths, social organizations, etc. No country has the ability to truly challenge the United States.The United States' confidence is the main purpose of governance, the high division of society, and the unlimited party struggle from this, making it difficult for the United States to have an effective government.Without a valid government, internal problems are difficult to solve.
The United States needs internal reforms to solve problems, just as China needs internal reforms to achieve sustainable rise.If both countries have enough self -confidence, it is not far from rationality.In any case, as far as China and the United States are concerned, international politics is not an inevitable zero -sum game.
The author is a professor at the East Asia Research Institute of Singapore's National University
The article only represents personal point of view
