01 Viewpoint
As long as I am a US president, Iran will never have nuclear weapons.On Wednesday (January 8th) at 11:30 in the morning, Trump delivered a national speech in the White House and used this as the opening whites.In just nine minutes, Trump focused on the Iran nuclear agreement and did not mention subsequent military operations.The subsequent performance of the global stock market reflected that the international community was relieved.
The first sentence of Trump's speech was that as long as I was the president of the United States, Iran could never have nuclear weapons, and then said in the morning.This sentence is not only carefully designed to highlight his personal importance to Iran's nuclear issue, but also confirms the recent criticism of public opinion MDASH; mdash; Trump ordered the US military to kill the Iranian revolutionary guard Suleman on January 3One of the considerations of Qassem Soleimani is to consolidate the support of Americans and facilitate the re -election in the second half of the year.
After all, at least the Iranian hostage crisis in 1979 has fallen. Iran is a nail in the eyes of Americans, and Xiaobus is also one of the evil axes.The ability of hostile countries to develop nuclear weapons naturally became a national security threat in Trump's mouth.He claimed that Sulemanni was about to launch an attack, and it became the saying that he ordered the killing.Although this was criticized for violations of international law and the United States Constitution, as many as 43 Americans still supported Trump's decision according to the polls Morning Consult.
Trump: Please exit the Iran nuclear agreement
It is one thing to consolidate half of domestic voters. Whether playing fire in the Middle East will cause war is another matter.Hamenei, the highest spiritual leader of Iran, threatened to retaliate severely and bombed the US military in Iraq in the early morning of January 8.The United States claims that there is no casualties, and Trump is due to accurate intelligence.According to the official news from the New York Times, the U.S. military has reported to President Trump three hours before the Iranian air raid.Early deployment may explain the zero injuries that the U.S. military claims, but Iran's shot this time cannot be calculated without calculation.After Trump's speech on Wednesday, the international community believed that both parties in the United States and Iraq wanted to avoid the situation, and then the stock market was well built and oil prices fell.
The interpretation of the market is correct, because although Trump Zhou Sanxiang has the chairman of the Minister of Defense and the Chief of Staff, he did not mention subsequent military operations when he spoke, reflecting that the United States did not intend to respond to Iran with force.In addition to calling on NATO to actively participate in the Middle East, his speech was concentrated in the development of nuclear weapons in Iran, criticized the Iranian nuclear agreement that the former White House owner Obama promoted, and called on other countries to participate in Mdash; MDASH; Germany, France, Britain, Russia,China mdash; mdash; jointly exit agreement.We must work together to reach an agreement with Iran to make the world safer and peaceful.Trump said so.
For Trump's supporters and Americans who regard Iran as the evil axis, this speech may be convincing.But for those who know the Iranian nuclear agreement, it is not Iran, but Trump that violates the agreement and makes the situation unstable in the Middle East.The formal name of the Iran Nuclear Agreement is Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA), which is not a agreement, but just a common commitment of the Seven Kingdoms.Its binding power comes from the 2231 resolution of the United Nations Security Council, which is based on the Iranian compliance with the agreement to exchange for the UN withdrawn or relaxation of sanctions.
Imperfection, acceptable, improve
The agreement limits the ability of Iran's development of martial arts, including its original 20%concentrated uranium abundance is limited to within 3.67%. As long as Iran follows the agreement, it is basically not able to develop nuclear weapons.In fact, since the effectiveness of the agreement, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), who is responsible for the inspection of Iran's nuclear facilities (IAEA), has confirmed that Iran has kept the promise and has not violated the agreement.On the contrary, Trump unilaterally exited in 2018 and sanctioned Iran.
To a certain extent, Trump's move is to deny Obama's achievements, but his criticism of the agreement is not unreasonable.For example, Iran has not been banned from developing intercontinental missiles, and the ban on the development of nuclear weapons is only 15 years.However, the concept behind the agreement is not the same time, but to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons.Although the French President Macron also believes that the agreement should be improved and restricted Iran's intercontinental missiles, he also tried to lobby Trump to stay in the agreement. It is obvious that Mdash; mdash; perfect, acceptable, and improve.
After Trump withdrew from the 2018 exit agreement, France, Germany, etc. did not follow it.The five countries not only continued to trade with Iran, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany also announced the establishment of a trade exchanges in January last year to solve the dominant position of the US dollar settlement and bypassed US sanctions.From this perspective, Trump's unilateralism can be described as blocked and cannot be surrounded by Iran with the power of one person. It also explains why he called on Germany, France, Britain, Russia, and China on Wednesday.
Will Iran touch it?
However, no country needs to be a US response insect.The international community needs to ask that staying at the withdrawal agreement can bring peace to the Middle East.Since the United States unilaterally dump the agreement and economic sanctions Iran, Iran has gradually abandoned the original promise, including increasing the abundance of concentrated uranium to 4.5%.Fortunately, this is still lower than the 20%before the agreement, and it is far lower than the 90%required for nuclear bombs.After the U.S. military killed Suleimani on January 3, although Iran announced that it would no longer limit the number of centrifugal machines in accordance with the agreement, it still allowed international atomic energy agencies to monitor its nuclear facilities.
In the future, Iran will return to the negotiating table or develop nuclear weapons to enhance military strength. It not only tests the Iranian Parliament elections held next month to the 21st month.The President Rouhani Rouhani was successfully re -elected in 2017 and was regarded as the Iranian people's identity agreement and its economic reform. However, Trump has been hard to use Iran in the past three years.challenge.When the Suleimani spirit was transported to the capital Tehran, nearly one million people went to the streets to send other scenes, showing the emotion of the enemy.Therefore, Trump's tricks in North Korea cannot be copied in the Iranian regime.If he wants to shape the heroic image and pretend to be a single person to solve the Iranian problem, it must be too naive.
