Taiwan Industry and Commerce Times Society
The global economic alerts continued in 2019. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank issued many reports of economic dynamics.What breaks most experts' glasses is that in 2019, the economic fundamentals were exposed, but the stock market rose sharply.
The Taiwan stock market not only showed a strong attempt, but also challenged the 30 -year high point of the 30 -year history of 12,682 points.The rise is a bomb. TSMC's performance and high yields attract foreign capital. In addition, the economic fundamentals indeed indeed have a major turnaround. Overseas funds return, Taiwanese merchants salmon return home, urban renewal and dangerous rebuilding cases, government financial revenue and expenditureThe first surplus budget for 22 years has been unimaginable at the beginning of the year.
In 2019, it is necessary to leave the name in history that all the assets around the world and all assets have almost risen.The stock market participating in the whole people has risen to a rare historical record. The American Dow Jones and the S & P index frequently hit a record high; Europe with a weak fundamental face, and the entire market has also paid a 24%result.The chaos, but the London stock market still rose more than 12%.Summarizing the return on the global stock market in 2019, all of them are rewarding, and the only red -word is only 4%of Malaysia.In addition, the bond market has also won a lot, real estate prices do not fall, gold has risen by 18%throughout the year, oil prices have risen by 25%, and all asset projects have paid shiny results.
Many economists explained the phenomenon of 2019 that it was believed that the central banks had reduced interest rates and released funds, covering up the dilemma of declining economic momentum and heavy trade.This subsequent explanation does explain part of the phenomenon, but it is not the whole picture. The record of the central bank's interest rate cuts is everywhere, but not every time it can stimulate the price of assets while recession.In addition to the abundant market capital, the domestic demand power of the United States and Europe is strong, the unemployment rate is at a historical low point, and the substantial recovery of substantial salary growth is the factors that cannot be ignored.
2004 and 2009.1999 is a masterpiece of the Internet bubble. The half index of the year rose from 398.79 points to 784.36 points, an increase of 90%. After two months, it soared to 1,264 bubbles.They are all 70%. In 2004, SARS was over, and the financial tsunami was separated in 2009. It was a deep rebound after the low base period after falling.The products of upgrading, welcoming 5G generations, and competition between China and the United States are not bubbles, nor a deep rebound. The impact that will bring in the future is worth further discussion.
Entering 2020, we faced the challenge of nearly taken the steel cable. Last year, all asset prices had risen, and the rise continued for another year. It was not impossible.The threat; the US -China trade war seems to come to the midfield rest area, but the agreement that it is expected to sign in mid -January seems to be very fragile and the substantial effect is limited.The U.S. and the European Central Bank clearly explicitly opposed the continued interest cutting and the waves have been on the top, and the central bank tools have used the ultimate; therefore, it is hoped that fiscal policy will become mainstream suggestions.Government expenditures have risen sharply. However, the government treasury of major countries has long been stretched, and the governments of various countries with heavy debt shouting to expand their fiscal deficit is almost impossible.
The International Monetary Fund is estimated that the Sino -US trade war continues to spark smoke. By the end of 2020, it will cause losses of $ 700 billion in global trade, which is equivalent to 0.8%of GDPs worldwide.China's manufacturing industry is of course the biggest victim, but Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan's important players who have existing global supply chains will not be lighter than China. Last year, American consumers enjoyed Trump's sharp tax reduction.The benefits of this year have reached the end. Even if the Sino -US trade agreement is signed, the substantial tariffs have risen sharply, and the impact of the trade war will inevitably become increasingly fierce.
The US Semi -official National Economic Research Agency (NBER) records this wave of economic expansion in June 2009. By July last year, it has lasted for 121 months to break the longest record of 1854 GDP. ThisThe waves of waves have reached the 128th month, which is longer than the golden age from March 1991 to March 2001 from the previous wave of expansion. It is more than double the average expansion time after World War II.Such a prosperity may come to the backward point at any time.
The ups and downs of prosperity is the law of nature. Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Credit Evaluation Company, made a warning as early as two years ago that it will face real challenges in 2020.The most creative policy, plus a little luck, can avoid the fate of economic recession.However, there is no need for too high -end economists. We also know that in 2020, the government's policy tools have been used to the extreme.One year in the ropes, the violent shocks and sudden conditions will not be too unexpected.
