China and the United States are expected to sign the first stage of trade agreement in the middle of this month, although public information shows that it will include exchange rate issues.However, market participants interviewed by Bloomberg estimate that the probability of the agreement will not hurt the means of managing the RMB exchange rate of the RMB in the People's Bank of China.
According to Bloomberg report on January 6, the content of the agreement of the US Trade Representative Office shows that the consensus of Sino -US exchange rates focus on maintaining the stability of exchange rates, preventing China from devaluation in competitiveness, and increasing transparency.According to the content implied by the previous US trade representative Littichizer, the Sino -US exchange rate agreement may use the US -Mexico and Canada Agreement as the best reference.
Although it was labeled by the US Department of Finance in August last year, the scale of foreign exchange accounts in the Bank of China in 2019 has changed weakly in 2019. Direct intervention in the foreign exchange market has been difficult to find. Traders have rarely reported that the Bank of China Bank is reversed.Municipal trading foreign exchange to regulate prices.The transparency of such intervention is the focus of the US -Mexico Agreement.
Even in the months when the Sino -US trade war was upgraded and the pressure of RMB depreciation increased, the central bank mainly played the prevalence of the regulatory effect of the intermediate price reverse cycle factor.The Bloomberg survey showed that in the rest of the time, the middle price was almost fully operated in accordance with its established market -oriented mechanism.
Trang Thuy Le, an Asian foreign exchange strategist in Macquarie in Hong Kong, believes that as long as the renminbi continues to appreciate, the United States will cancel China the label of the exchange rate.The United States should not care about the middle price. They know that the adverse cycle factor now has a boosting effect on the renminbi. From the perspective of the United States, as long as the RMB is strong, it is a good thing.
The 20%of the 20%of the long -term foreign exchange risk reserve and intermediate price reverse cycle factor policy that the People's Bank of China restarted in August 2018 runs through the whole year of 2019.During the year, the Sino -US trade frictions were upgraded several times. The exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar broke the seventh in August, and the pressure of depreciation in the five months from May to June and August to October increased rapidly.During the same period, Bloomberg's summary showed that compared with the market model forecast, the intermediate price announced by the Bank of China was significantly deviated from the strong side, and it was widely understood by the market as the increase in stability of counter -cycle factor.
In 2019, the average daily price of the middle price is 22 points stronger than the market expectations, while the daily daily daily in 2018 is only two points stronger.From a monthly perspective, the average daily average of five months in May, June, August, September, and October significantly increased significantly. Among them, the strongest rate in September was the largest, with an average of 100 points, and the average daily average of the remaining seven monthsThe deviation can be ignored.
This shows that except for the renminbi, during the depreciation period of the renminbi, the middle price has almost fully followed the market -oriented rules in the past year.The evolution of the RMB exchange rate management method means that in the later negotiations between China and the United States, the Central Bank of China will still have magic weapons in hand and guide the foreign exchange market on demand.
Xie Dongming, an economist in Singapore in Singapore, said in an interview that under normal circumstances, the guiding role of intermediate prices should be weakened and allows the market to do pricing.He believes that the middle price regulation is not a direct intervention. This guidance method is somewhat wiped off the ball. If according to the US -Mexico -Canada trade agreement, the United States will require disclosure of data that directly intervene in the period and long -term intervention. The exchange rate agreement signed with China this time will be disclosed.It does not necessarily put the middle price into the content.
This also shows that the marketization of the RMB exchange rate has continued.Economist Peng Zhiluo, an economist in Hong Kong in Hong Kong, said in an interview that he cannot regard the middle price formation mechanism as an intervention tool.It is a tool to help the RMB transition from a management floating exchange rate system to a clean floating exchange rate. At the same time, it can avoid unnecessary market confusion in the global financial system.
