Author: Andrew Middot; Exam

On January 3rd, the U.S. drone killed the Elite Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in Baghdad, the commander of the Elite Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Cassim Bull; Major General Sulemanni.In the past few decades, the United States has been warning with Iran's agent, and now the hot war has begun.

This incident does not mean war, does not lead to war, nor does it create a risk of war.It is war.

I don't think I am an Iranian affairs expert.When I was the deputy assistant minister in charge of the Middle East policy in the United States Department of Defense, I often told the Ministry of Defense's responsible team of Iranian affairs that my limited regional professional knowledge did not exceed the Arabia MDASH; MDASH; it separated Iraq and Iran, whichThat is Arabic and Persian regions in the Middle East.

But even if I have a limited degree of understanding of Iran, I also know Cassim Bull; how important Sulemani is, because he always supports Iranian allies in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. He spends it in the Arabic world.The time exceeds his time in Iran.From the perspective of military and diplomacy, Sulemanni's role in Iran is like the David Bull in the United States; Peter Reileus, Stanley Bull; McRistel and Brett Bull;Together.

This is the problem that Iran is now facing.The Iranian government wants to realize its ambitious Middle East, the most indispensable power may be Suleimani.From 2015 to 2017, we hit Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. At that time, I often watched Suleimani traveling between Syria and Iraq.When the war is not conducive to Assad, Suleimani will go to Syria from Iraq.When the Iranian militia supported by Iran began to fight with Islamic State, Sulemani would leave Syria to Iraq.

The death of Sulemanni is a problem for Iran.Like the United States, Iran is facing the problem of lack of talent mdash; MDASH; generals and diplomats are talented, and there are not many people who can speak Arabic in American officials MDASH; mdash; there are not many talented people in Iranian;EssenceI think Iran has frequently made mistakes in Yimen MDASH; MDASH; for example, one of the reasons for providing anti -ship cruise missiles such as anti -ship cruise missile MDASH; mdash; MDASH; MDASH;

Cassim Bull; Sulemani is the adult with supervision ability.In the past decade, due to too many work needs, he has dispersed a lot of energy, but he still does not have been an important or even dangerous opponent in the United States and his partners.Now, Iran and their partners will feel how painful it is.

As for whether the importance of Sulemanni constitutes a legitimate reason to kill him, I don't know, and I don't want to comment more.The United States claims that it takes action because Sulemanni is planning to attack the US diplomats and troops in the Middle East, and he has also planned a attack on the joint military base of Iraq.Since the Iraq war, Sulemani has a direct or indirect responsibility for the attack on the US military at least or even hundreds of against the US military.Therefore, although the Trump administration often does not tell the truth, the statement issued by the United States this time will not surprise me.

I dare not say how the current situation will end.I think no one can say what Iran will react, and no one can tell whether the United States and their partners have made preparations for the Iranian response.The only certainty is that in the next few weeks, the people of the Middle East will suffer huge suffering.Unfortunately, this situation has lasted too long.

The author is former Deputy Assistant Minister of the US Department of Defense