Where will the Nuclear situation go from 2020?

Author: Wang Sheng

In the first half of 2019, the situation on the Korean Peninsula staged a world -renowned drama.From June 20th to 21st, Chinese President ... visited North Korea for the fifth meeting with North Korea's highest leader Kim Jong -un.On June 30, US President Trump took a small step in reality, but it was a big step in history. He held the third meeting with Kim Jong -un in Panmunjom.This undoubtedly brings some optimistic reveries to people who are looking forward to.

The situation of the peninsula is not optimistic

However, due to the distrust caused by the long -term hostile between the United States and North Korea, the situation of the peninsula did not achieve expectations.Since the second half of 2019, the United States and North Korea can be said to have continued. Near the year, the Korean Peninsula has re -set off a stormy wave.At the NATO Summit, Trump then pointed out that Kim Jong -un was the Rockets, and claimed that the United States did not give up remarks on the options of martial arts in the DPRK, which caused North Korea to be extremely dissatisfied and disappointed in the United States and Trump.A shadow was covered.North Korea conducted two very significant experiments at the Western Sea Satellite Launch Sepaction on December 7 and 13, 2019. Kim Jong -un said that if the United States cannot take a new plan before the end of the year, North Korea will choose a new road, specially, special, specially, special, special, special, special, special, special, special, special, special.Trump was tit -for -tat, and a red line warned North Korea not to cross the red line of remote missiles, and convened the Security Council to increase pressure on DPRK.If both the United States and North Korea adopt the near -limit pressure to continue the opposite upgrade, it will likely make the situation on the Korean Peninsula that has been based on a hard -to -have negotiation since 2018 reversed.In order to maintain the peace and stability of the peninsula, at the critical moment, China and Russia decisively shot to cool down the situation in the peninsula.

On December 17, 2019, the two China and Russia jointly proposed a draft resolution resolution resolution resolution of the Korean Peninsula in the United Nations Security Council, reiterating that all parties should be committed to achieving nuclearization of the peninsula.Urges the United States and North Korea to continue dialogue and restart multiple talks, and formulate comprehensive North Korean nuclear problems solutions.This plan has increased confidence in negotiating with the United States to North Korea to a certain extent. It will undoubtedly provide a new opportunity for reconstructing the Peninsula to reconstruct the peace in the United States and North Korea.However, the United States did not seem to accept this proposal. On the 18th, the UN General Assembly passed the annual resolution, condemning the serious human rights violations of North Korea.On the 20th, the U.S. Defense Director Espa shouted that North Korea can start war tonight, but at the same time, Espa also emphasized that diplomatic channels are still the best way to achieve the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.In response to the development of the situation, on the 22nd, Kim Jong -un attended the third expansion meeting held by the 7th Central Military Commission of the Labor Party and instructed to quickly develop self -defense national defense forces.At the same time, the trip to East Asia, the new vice -State of the United States, also failed to realize the desire to dialogue with North Korean officials and returned to Washington sadly.It can be said that US -DPRK relations are in the most tense state since the first Golden Conference in Singapore in 2018.The situation of the peninsula is confusing, and the variables still exist.Monitor here, the US -DPRK relations in 2020 are not optimistic. This is not optimistic mainly because:

First of all, the United States still adopts a delay tactical tactics that does not make decisions on the nuclear issue. Although President Trump himself has played a North Korean card to increase political achievements in order to run for re -election.Looking at it, I just want to maintain North Korea's no longer conducting nuclear tests and intercontinental ballistic missile tests to tolerate the bottom line.It is difficult to take further measures in the short term, because the United States has not yet prepared for the thorough solution of the North Korean nuclear issue.

The U.S. North Korea negotiations are not in the same track

Secondly, the conservative forces and interest groups in the United States are still superstitious about economic sanctions, blocking inspections and military strikes to deter North Korea. Most of them also advocate tough pressure to force North Korea to abandon their nuclear.The negotiation policy still looks at North Korea from a historical perspective, thinking that North Korea's nuclear abandonment is reversible, and insist on the principle of abandoning the nuclear before compensation.The US Conservative Tank Democratic Guardian Consortium released on December 6, 2019 (the DPRK) maximum pressure 2.0 report said that once North Korea conducts nuclear tests or intercontinental missiles, the US government must implement more strong pressure on the DPRK.Including new international sanctions alliances, etc.To this end, the United States and allies must strengthen pressure on the DPRK in various fields such as diplomacy, military, economic, network, finance, and even intelligence surveillance.

Third, the idea of negotiating in the United States and North Korea is not on the same track.North Korea's negotiation strategy to the United States is in stages and synchronization.The first is to stop the development of nuclear guidance and abandoned nuclear guide facilities, and then exchange for the guarantee of the United States to give a security system. Sign the Declaration of the Final War and even relax the sanctions on people's livelihood and economic development.Nuclear materials.The United States is required to stop sending strategic weapons to enter the Korean Peninsula and the surrounding sea and air.Take a step back, at least part of the termination of sanctions is the prerequisite for turning on the dialogue.The US negotiation strategy is: on the one hand, it continues to continue to pressure the pressure, maintain the economic sanctions of all Security Council's economic sanctions, and have further sanctions as a plan to force North Korea to concessions and warn North Korea not to surpass the bottom line.As a tit -for -tat tattoo, everyone refused to take the first step, reflecting that each other's contact did not change the huge trust deficit.

Mobilize international forces multilateral talks to promote bilateral talks

So, where will the situation on the Korean Peninsula go from 2020?First of all, all parties should persevere in the Korean Peninsula non -nuclear negotiations to continue to continue, and no nuclearization meets the vital interests of the interests of the interests of the Korean Peninsula issues. It should reiterate a high -profile reiteration and obtain the support of the member states of the Security Council.In particular, the opportunity to talk about Beijing and Chengdu, the leaders of China, Japan, and South Korea, to strengthen the coordination and consistency of the three parties in solving the position and interests of the North Korean nuclear issue, and find an opportunity to break the deadlock of their respective bilateral relations.Secondly, the essence of recognizing the nuclear issue of the North Korea lies in the improvement of US -DPRK relations.It is important to mobilize international forces to form a joint force to vigorously promote the process of dialogue between the United States and North Korea.In addition to bilateral talks, it is necessary to supplement multilateral talks, especially the six -party talks to promote bilateral talks in the United States and North Korea.Third, actively promote the mechanism of China, Japan, South Korea+cooperation, and guide the strategic point of the Northeast Asia to the construction of a community of economic destiny community of economic destiny from the past to joint military exercises and military reserve competitions.

In 2020, there are major events such as the United States elections, the chief election of South Korea, and Japan to hold the Olympic Games and North Korea to usher in major activities such as the 75th anniversary of the founding of the party. Such an international atmosphere undoubtedly adds opportunities for international cooperation to solve the problem of North Korea.There is a certain internal motivation.There is no worry about Christmas, which fully illustrates this.If the United States and North Korea have a loose position without nuclearization, or to find a realistic alternative, do not show each other between the United States and North Korea to stimulate each other.Start.

The author is a professor at the Department of International Political Science of the School of Administration of Jilin University