Cao Xin: The cooperation between the three East Asia is fundamentally offered. There are two Kan Mdash; MDASH; economic cooperation and North Korea.Without these two cents, there is no foundation in cooperation.
One of the focus of international public opinion reports last week is the Chengdu Summit, which implements the regional comprehensive economic partner agreement as a prelude to the prelude.In fact, the three East Asian countries have tried to carry out this cooperation and have been promoted for many years, and even proposed that the three countries of China, Japan, and South Korea used the unified use of AIIA, but there have been few progress. In addition to many problems of the three countries themselves, they have been used as external forces.The United States is the biggest interference factor.Summarizing the experience and lessons of history can be found that the cooperation between the three East Asia today has fundamentally two unable to go around: economic cooperation and North Korea issues.Without these two cents, the cooperation of the three East Asia will be caught in a foundation without the foundation and disrupted and disturbed from time to time.
As far as economic cooperation and North Korea are concerned, there are actually problems in both aspects of the three countries.
Deficiency of Sino -Japanese and Korean economic cooperation
As far as economic cooperation is concerned, the economic cooperation between China, Japan, and South Korea today first has the problem of disparity and differences in national strength between the three countries.Multiple differences, this will actually affect the psychological smoothness of the cooperation of the Three Kingdoms, which directly or far -reachingly affects specific cooperation behaviors, especially China, such as the West, which is called a non -market economy in the West.
GDP (GDP) is all foundation for comparing the economic strength of the country and the country.According to the latest statistics, in terms of total economic volume, China's GDP was US $ 10.2 trillion in the first three quarters of 2019, Japan was US $ 3777.379 billion, and South Korea was US $ 122,13 billion.The premise of quantity.
The above basic data also determines that China has overwhelmed Japan and South Korea in terms of trade. Taking China and South Korea alone as an example. As of December 25 this year, South Korean trade volume exceeded $ 1 trillion, while China only the top three of the top three.The quarter was about $ 3.27 trillion.China and South Korea's trade in the daily and South Korea are in a state of surplus for a long time, reflecting this state.As for the consumer market area and population, the number of overwhelming population in Japan and South Korea, and the increasing increasing income level of Chinese residents, also determines the number of overwhelming Japan and South Korea consumption.
China ’s overwhelming advantage in Japan and South Korea in the above basic data has determined that China’ s roles in the world ’s trade pattern before East Asia have been president in East Asia.Take the leadership position.At least in the trade relations between China, Japan and South Korea, in terms of the history, reality and cultural perspective of East Asia, it is difficult for China to take on this role.However, China has been claiming to be internationally claimed to be internationally developed countries. Unless there is significant adjustment, it must be an obstacle to this identity.
On the other hand, the mutual trust of China, Japan and South Korea.Regardless of the far -reaching impact of the past history and war, the way of thinking between South Korea and Japan as a small country and island nation and the differences from China.From the perspective of the population, land area, natural resources, military strength and economic strength, and historical and cultural perspectives, China is unquestionable to belong to Japan and Koreans that often say, and they belong to small countries.For the Chinese, the psychology of small countries is often uncomfortable. Similarly, they cannot understand the Chinese country's thinking, and even have a sincere horror.For thousands of years, China's overwhelming advantages in East Asia and the tribute system have strengthened all the psychology above.
Under the above background, although the three East Asia countries are the same, they are not easy to communicate. They do not get along well in each other. Sometimes they will get more difficult than Westerners, including trade.For example, they will naturally ask: Why is China more open in trade as a big country? What is your motivation?The small country with relatively poor resources is inevitable that the gains and losses and interests are heavier than China in terms of interest relationships. This relationship will inevitably become sensitive and suspicious.
Taking Japan and South Korea as an example, the motion of the promotion of the regional comprehensive economic partners' agreement is of course China. Although Japan and South Korea are negotiated with the tradition of giving up the boss of the world to make their friends get rich, they undoubtedly have their own considerations.For South Korea, because Sade and historical issues have been sanctioned by China and Japan in recent years, they have been worried. Now facing China's invitations, although the Chinese market is very attractive, in order to prevent repeated mistakes, they can only cunn up the three caves of rabbits.Put the eggs in a basket.Therefore, when Wen Zaiyin cooperates with China and East Asia, he does not give up the Indian-Tai League. At the same time, he must also engage in a Northeast Asian railway community.And enter the North Korean market as much as possible, trying to get a cup of politics and economy.
Similarly, Japan, which is more proactive in the regional comprehensive economic partner agreement because of its own TPP, was originally not as urgent as South Korea, but as the second largest economic power in the world, facing facing the world, facing the face of the world's largest economic power, facing facingThe United States does not give small allies for profitability. It can only invest another court. In fact, Japan has decided to rely on the United States safely earlier earlier and economically relying on China.In addition to the above considerations, in addition to the above -mentioned consideration, there is also a direct purpose in the Belt and Road. In particular, Japan's TPP also welcomes China to join. After all, China is the world's second largest economy.What's more, Japan's experience in overseas projects like Belt and Road In fact is not under China.
Therefore, for the regional comprehensive economic partner agreement that will be implemented next year, it is advisable to think and think carefully.
The North Korean issue cannot be solved for a long time
Another problem that has a long -term impact on the in -depth cooperation between China, Japan and South Korea has a long -term impact. It is even more difficult to deal with.
The North Korean issue currently includes at least two major problems: the current North Korean nuclear issue; the unified issue of the Korean Peninsula in the future.The profound impact of the North Korean issue on Northeast Asia's cooperation is mainly reflected in: it takes nuclear and guidance as its main means, and the world's only superpowers, the United States and the surrounding allies, and Japan, and South Korea.The surrounding South Korea and related opponents frequently launch cliff tactics, and then manufacture a safety and peace crisis in East Asia.All this determines: there is always a huge hidden danger of war around East Asia; at the same time, it also means that any force that intends to destroy East Asia's in -depth cooperation can use the North Korean issue as a means and fulcrum to destroy East Asian cooperation in a limited interference.
In the face of the above basic situation, the positions and interests of China, Japan and South Korea are obviously not consistent.As far as Japan's position is concerned, domestic political parties and people are relatively consistent, especially on anti -North Korea and abducted Japanese issues.Including the nuclear issue of North Korea.China's situation is more complicated. In terms of position, China advocates that the Korean Peninsula has no denuclearization, but China has always connected the handling of the North Korean nuclear issue with the relationship between China and the United States.One of the key countries, in fact, it is difficult to deal with dangerous North Korean nuclear issues. As a result, the topic of North Korea has been directly and indirectly endangered China's security interests.In addition, Japan and South Korea are the allies of the United States, and they do not master high -end nuclear guidance.
In this context, the high -end and in -depth cooperation between China, Japan and South Korea, is actually not stable, and is too large and too much due to external force interference.From the perspective of the current situation, the North Korean -US relations are actually very unstable from the perspective of security. There may be conflicts and crisis at any time. This will directly destroy the cooperation of the three East Asia.However, at the summit last week, the Three Kingdoms did not propose an effective solution to the North Korean nuclear. The method proposed by the summit was to slow down sanctions on North Korea in order to seek the situation in North Korea.yield.Whether this approach can meet North Korea's most important core interests and liberalization of sanctions, the prospects are uncertain, and the core interests of the United States are more difficult to satisfy.
Therefore, the most important part of the regional comprehensive economic partner agreement, China, Japan and South Korea cooperation,It can be described as a long way to go, and it must be effectively controlled to the North Korean issue in order to relieve the worries and have long -term vitality.The three countries may wish to consider trying to conduct related specific cooperation in this regard to solve the most important practical problems.
(Note: The author is Secretary -General of the International Public Opinion Research Center of the Chahar Society and a researcher at the Peninsula Peace Research Center. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.
