From the fluctuation of soybean price fluctuations, the Sino -US trade war in 2019

Source: Nikkei Chinese Network

In 2019, the international market of soybean is affected by the trade war between the United States and China. It is a year of obvious price fluctuations.In the low point of May to about 10 years at a low point in May.Subsequently, the extent of the negotiations between the two countries can restore the needs of US soybeans to the extent, and all kinds of views are intertwined.The soybean market has risen when there is a decline.How China promotes the purchase of American soybeans in 2020 is the focus, and the market may fluctuate violently.

The international index of soybean prices in Chicago (recent contracts) is about $ 9.3/Pu -ear, an increase of 6 % higher than the end of last year ($ 8.83).The fluctuations in the market are prominent in the year.

Soya transactions are obviously affected by Sino -US friction.With the launch of the US tariffs, China imposed tariffs on US soybeans in July 2018.Due to the sharp decline in demand from China, American soybeans ushered in 2019 when excessive surplus.

Soya prices continued to fall in the first half of 2019.In the case of a deadlock in trade negotiations, the Trump administration will increase tariffs on US $ 200 billion in Chinese products such as home appliances in May from 10 % to 25 %.It also proposed the policy of taxation for smart phones.

In this regard, the soybean market also responded.It is believed that China's countermeasures will cause further shrinkage of US soybean transactions.In addition, China is facing African swine fever popular, and the consumption of bean dregs has decreased, which is also considered a factor.In mid -May, the price of soybeans fell to $ 7.91/Pu -Ear, setting a low point since December 2008.

With this the lowest point, the market rebounded.In June, US President Trump and Chinese President ... Anti -opportunity to borrow the G20 summit (G20 Summit) in Japan.The idea that opposing tends to ease is expanded.

After September, the movement of the improvement of friction between China and the United States has improved in the front line of the transaction, the rise of soybean market has become obvious.Chinese media have reportedly reported that China ’s plans to buy hundreds of thousands to millions of tons of American soybean -made soybean -made soybean -made soybeans have been reported for a long time. They also reported that a certain number of soybean transactions were exempted from counter -tariffs.

The export volume of Chinese soybean exports to Chinese soybean exports reached 9.6 million tons at the end of September to November 2019, an increase of nearly 19 times the same period last year.In mid -October, the two countries reached some agreements on China's increase in the purchase of agricultural products in the United States.The international price of soybeans has risen to $ 9.4, setting a high point in about one year.

However, rising momentum failed.Because the content of the agreement has not reached a formal compromise, the views on the results of the negotiations have strengthened.In late November, US President Trump signed the Hong Kong Human Rights Act and China expressed opposition.Due to the view that it will affect the trade negotiations, the price of soybeans has continued to fall, and by the beginning of December, it fell to $ 8.71, a level to mid -September.

In mid -December, the governments of the Sino -US government stated that the first phase of the first phase of China, including the purchase of US soybeans in China.The rising rate of the market has accelerated again, but the views that suspected the actual effect appeared early.

There are rumors in the market that China plans to purchase $ 40 billion per year.However, the export of agricultural and livestock products in the United States was only $ 24 billion in 2017.Saito Kazuki, chief analyst at FUJITOMI in Japan, believes that the market's doubts about whether the market can really achieve.

Brazilian soybean -made soybeans will be launched in January, which constitutes competition with American soybeans and accounts for 50%of the world exports.If the situation of China's imports of American soybeans lacks progress, the rise of soybeans in the first half of 2020 may be relatively limited.