The RMB exchange rate policy under the Sino -US agreement must be appropriately arrang

The Taiwan Industry and Commerce News article pointed out that the first stage of trade agreement between China and the United States has matured, and it is expected to be signed in early 2020.The recent outline of the protocol text, including the relevant chapters of exchange rates, is a major feature.But because of this, the changes in the exchange rate of the RMB afterwards will always be monitored or restrained by the United States.Therefore, it is necessary for China to arrange a policy of the RMB exchange rate policy early to maintain the autonomy of the exchange rate and avoid letting the United States from catching the sanctions handle.For example, China should have a toolbox that indirectly regulates the exchange rate, so that the use of elasticity when necessary is one of the policy policies worthy of persistence.

The exchange rate matters were included in the first stage of trade agreement between China and the United States. Of course, the U.S. claim was intended to restrict the depreciation of the RMB, which also showed the aggressiveness of the United States.However, as a party enjoying a huge trade with the United States, China can only tolerate; but it cannot be too passive by the content of the agreement. It is best to strive to the United States' largest exchange rate policy.

Therefore, before the signing of the first phase of the trade agreement between China and the United States, China is necessary to make the final right to defend the right to the exchange rate chapters.The main reason should be as abstract as much as possible, so as not to be too specific, so as to prevent the future RMB exchange rate policy operations hindered; if it is the official regulation of the RMB exchange rate in mainland China in the futureAdverse.

From this perspective, the exchange rate part of the first stage of the trade agreement between China and the United States recently came out, with transparent expressions, which clearly allows China to regulate the exchange rate.China should really strive to change the word to reasonable; because mainland China is not a small and medium -sized economy that is economically attached to the United States, and how should it have to pay attention to the United States in terms of exchange rate regulation?As long as China abstracts the United States, it is promised not to allow the RMB exchange rate to depreciate competitively.

In addition, China must also claim that the terms of the Sino -US first -stage trade agreement on the exchange rate must restrict both China and the United States at the same time, that is, what they require China to do, and the United States should also be restricted.Observe, and let the United States do whatever you love.For example, President Trump has repeatedly demanded interest rates at the Fed (FED) to avoid excessive US dollar currency value; such a policy of man -guided the US dollar to softened, just to obtain Chinese understanding in advance?

In any case, before the first phase of the Sino -US trade agreement was officially signed, China needed to arrange the RMB exchange rate policy policy early in 2020 to effectively respond to the new bureaus of the two parties, so that the United States could no longer impose tariffs on China and Canada.

For this reason, the operation of the RMB exchange rate policy in 2020 should take the following policies:

First, fully respect the supply and demand factors of the foreign exchange market, and do not make reverse control.That is, the comparison of supply and demand in the mainland's foreign exchange market is used as the RMB exchange rate to be rising.When foreign exchange supply is too required, the RMB rising is straightforward; on the contrary, when the foreign exchange supply is in short supply, the renminbi should be degraded.The mainland officials should give full respect for the rising direction of RMB. If you want to regulate, as long as you want to operate and shrink the uplifting and depreciate, it does not need to adjust its regulation to degrade or change from a depreciation.

In recent years, mainland officials have used regulatory measures of counter -cyclical factors to reverse the general direction of RMB's rising and degradation; this means, in the current sensitive situation of the Sino -US trade war, it is best not to use it.

Second, the toolbox of the RMB exchange rate should be maintained, and it should be elastic when necessary.Even if the counter -cyclical factors are no longer used, the toolbox that officially regulates the RMB exchange rate in the mainland is still diverse.Such as the RMB exchange rate index (CFETS), renminbi deposit reserve rate and market interest rate, and official management funds entering and leaving the mainland, etc., are all tools that can indirectly affect the RMB exchange rate.Full and elastic use.

Third, the internationalization of the renminbi should be carried out in a low -key.Make RMB circulation worldwide is the state of pursuit of the international policy of the RMB. It is also an artifact to open up the money veins inside and outside the mainland and optimize the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism; it has greatly enhanced the role of mainland comprehensive national strength, and it is not a problem.

Therefore, no matter how the Sino -US trade war evolves, the RMB internationalization policy should continue to promote.However, because the United States is based on the ability to protect the US dollar advantage, it is quite scrupled and rejected by the internationalization of the RMB, so China should be carried out in a low -key in this matter.

From the perspective of the above three aspects, it is not easy for the United States to abduct the RMB exchange rate by using a trade agreement.In other words, in order to reduce its huge trade deficit to China, although the depreciation of the RMB has been preventing the renminbi, such as the anti -thief, if China can make good use of the above -mentioned side -by -side ways, it can effectively fight against the pressure of the United States and maintain the operating space of independent exchange rate policy.

In fact, the RMB exchange rate is rising, and the US dollar currency value is difficult to get off.If the United States restarts the Sino -Sino -trade war, it has led global investors to buy US dollars to avoid risks, which prompts the US dollar exchange rate to be stronger; in this case, of course, the renminbi can be greatly depreciated.In such a simple reason, can the United States pretend to be confused?